Re: Nothing but a fairytale
- From: Seanpit <seanpit@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 3 Dec 2008 18:54:39 -0800 (PST)
On 3 Dec, 08:59, "Steven L." <sdlit...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Seanpit wrote:
On 30 Nov, 06:36, hersheyh <hershe...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
< snip >
SeanPitman:
Without any odds analysis whatsoever. Your "potentially" useful
intermediates are what are in question here - what are the odds of
these needed intermediates actually existing in the form necessary to
make the leap to the next intermediate step?
Howard Hershey:
The odds have to have been good enough to have happened twice in the
history of life on this earth.
SeanPitman:
Yep - and what are those odds? Have even a rough idea?
It's not a question of odds (probability), but of *mathematical
expectation*.
Mathematical expectation is the product of the odds times the number of
trials.
So the real determining factor here is: How many *organisms* existed
before the leap to the next intermediate step occurred.
If the number of single-celled organisms in Earth's oceans was in the
decillions, then even a very small probability of making the
intermediate step *per organism* becomes a virtual certainty over that
entire population.
How certain? Do you have the first clue how to even roughly estimate
the probability that even with a population of 1e35 bacteria that job
could be done this side of a trillion years? Where is your math for
this "virtually certain" notion of yours? All this certainty, so
little math - well none actually. No statistical analysis at all.
And that's very likely. Today, just one bacterium gives rise to a new
generation every twenty minutes. Under optimum conditions, that will
produce a quintillion new bacteria in just seven hours.
Very good. So, you should have some good idea as to the actual odds
of success. All you have to do now is come up with the likely
Euclidean distance that such a large population needs to cross and
you've got some real statistical backing for your theory. Once you do
this, you'll be the first. Good luck! ; )
It has been estimated that today, there are some 5 x 10^30 bacteria on
earth. There may have been comparably astronomical numbers of
single-celled organisms on earth ever since they first multiplied into
every corner of the earth, billions of years ago.
Correct . . . you've only got a little bit further to go to have a
real scientific theoretical basis for the mechanism of RM/NS. You're
so close! . . . yet so far far away . . .
That means that even a seemingly miniscule probability is a virtual
certainty eventually, over that entire population. With a population
that astronomical, anything can happen.
You think that's a big population? You think a few billion years is
enough time to "do anything" - however unlikely? How unlikely do you
think the odds are? Have any idea? - even a rough guesstimate?
Come on now. I keep hearing this same just-so story over and over and
over again. And, surprisingly, this is the stuff that gets rated 5-
stars around here. This nonsense fairytale just-so story stuff. No
math needed. Just blind assertions based on "enough time and a big
enough population can produce any miracle you like" nonsense. Where's
the real odds analysis here? Where's the science?
Look, at least I try to produce some sort of rough analysis that at
least attempts to approximate the question at hand. At least try to
do something similar:
http://www.detectingdesign.com/flagellum.html#Calculation
Steven L.
Email: sdlit...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com
.
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