Re: Statistics question

martin <usenet1@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

rich hammett wrote:

One of the panelists, as part of his explanation,
mentioned that once he flipped a coin and got 17
straight heads. Most of us here understand the
probabilities associated with such an event, and
what they mean. We can easily calculate how
likely this is to happen, that is, calculate how
many random trials would be required to make this
occurrence likely, etc. My hasty calculations
show that this occurs once in 131072 trials.
(I'm eliding all of the discussion about the
odds that it will occur exactly once in 131072
trials)

However, the question that occurred to me was
"Is he lying about it?" So I think that may
be a natural question to occur to anyone,
especially when discussing a subject that is
very complex, when they have no particular
knowledge about the subject, and when god
tells them the subject has another explanation.

Ahh, I'm sure it's on youtube, but Deren Brown did something similar on
one of his programs. Very impressive it was too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08

Then he showed the outtakes - god knows how he had the patience to do it

Thanks for that. That's my next blog entry...
--
John S. Wilkins, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Philosophy
University of Queensland - Blog: scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts
"He used... sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor,
bathos, puns, parody, litotes and... satire. He was vicious."

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Statistics question
    ... straight heads. ... be a natural question to occur to anyone, ... Then he showed the outtakes - god knows how he had the patience to do it ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Statistics question
    ... be a natural question to occur to anyone, ... Then he showed the outtakes - god knows how he had the patience to do it ... One of my favorite card tricks: ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Statistics question
    ... straight heads. ... be a natural question to occur to anyone, ... Then he showed the outtakes - god knows how he had the patience to do it ... One could use a loaded coin. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • One Small Spec
    ... but such physical probabilities represent ... Only a portion of your own identity is "presently" familiar to you, ... God was seen as cruel and powerful when man believed that these were ... In a reality that is _inconceivably_ multidimensional, ...
    (talk.philosophy.misc)
  • Re: OT: Gravity explained
    ... Evolution, as it applies to the origin of DNA, is arguably a goofy ... probabilities than most statisticians would classify as "impossible." ... Clearly God did it:) ... I sure hope you don't design ...
    (sci.electronics.design)