Re: Cosmic rays and global warming

In article <1184540940.135407.140080@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Ken Shackleton <ken.shackleton@xxxxxxx> wrote:
On Jul 13, 10:38 pm, Kent Paul Dolan <xanth...@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

[trim]

Which part of the easily replicated results from the
laboratory and from in situ observation, that said
CO2 causes slower radiation of infra-red radiation
back into space, and thus in a feedback loop heats
the earth, is then too difficult for you to admit as
well?

[stratospheric cooling]

So...if I understand your point notwithstanding the bile; the slowing
of heat being re-radiated into space is part of the mechanism for
stratospheric cooling. This does help me, since I had been under the
impression that the stratosphere was heated by incoming UV and
transparent to the infra-red outgoing.

'slow' is just the wrong word.

Let's back up to the 1800s. 1861 it was established that
CO2, among other gases, was a greenhouse gas -- relatively
transparent to visible wavelengths, while absorbing in the
infrared. Kirchoff's law (1859) had already established that
if something is a good absorber at some wavelength, then it
much also be a good (exactly equally good) emitter at that
wavelength.

Start with an earth that has no greenhouse gases in its
atmosphere. The surface gets warmed by solar visible (and
UV and near IR). It then radiates in long IR. Since the
atmosphere is transparent to this as well, the radiation
goes straight to space. This leaves the atmosphere and
surface at a relatively low temperature (255 K, -18 C, 0 F).

Now place greenhouse gases as observed in the atmosphere.
When the surface emits its heat, some is captured by the
greenhouse gases, which then emit radiation spherically --
some heading back down to the surface, some continuing to
space. The stuff that heads to the surface heats it up some
more, and additional radiation is sent up from the surface.
Iterate to convergence, and you get the global average surface
temperature (288 K, 15 C, 60 F). This 33 C, 60 F, warming is
the earth's greenhouse effect.

It is an extremely fortunate thing for us that in doubling
CO2 levels, we're _not_ looking at doubling the total
greenhouse effect.

Now, up in the stratosphere (and increasingly so the higher
you go), the CO2 is still a good absorber of IR, but is now
a very thin gas -- too thin to be capturing much radiation
from below. On the other hand, it is also still a good
emitter of IR. So it continues emitting energy, on net -- up
here -- causing cooling. More CO2, more cooling.

Making for an even better fingerprinting job in attributing
stratospheric cooling is that, since the relative effects of
capture from below and emission to space depends on gas density,
there is a particular distribution of cooling to be expected
if CO2 (et al.) were the sources.

[trim]

The cosmic ray argument has to do with cloud formation, and the
increased solar activity is proposed to *reduce* cosmic rays and
thereby *reduce* cloud cover....which would increase heating at the
surface. I have no idea if the hypothesis for the mechanism is valid.
However, there is a positive correlation between sunspots [solar
activity] and surface temperature that has been documented for
centuries.

Now tell us (cite to the scientific literature) what the percent of
variance is that the solar activity explains, and over what time period.
Then explain how it is that with flat or declining solar activity, which
should be leading to cooling (per the sunspot correlation, high sunspots
= high output), over the past 25 years, temperatures have nevertheless
been rising.

Sunspots have an interesting and long history as 'causes' of
climate change. Except that they also have an excellent record
of the next solar cycle disproving whatever correlation was claimed
up to that point. Burrough's _Climate Cycles: Real or Imaginary_
is supposed to be a good book on the general topic of climate cycles.

Since it is impossible for earth's temperature to have any feedback on
solar activity, and the fact that the sun is responsible for the
earth's even having a climate; it is reasonable to conclude [assuming
that the correlation is not mere coincidence] that increased solar
activity, as measured by sunspot activity, is responsible [at least in
past] for the global warming that has been going on for the past 150
years.

Or that it was a significant component up to the point where
human activity had changed greenhouse gas levels enough to swamp
the solar variations. And that since then, solar variation is
an increasingly smaller player.

It needn't been all or nothing, right?

--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences

.

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