Re: The Bet

On Jul 4, 9:16 am, richardalanforr...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

How does one go about deciding whether the criteria are met?

If the measurements match the stated criteria. Allowing for you to
choose whatever plane of symmetry you want to use doesn't affect the
outcome.

Sean, it's not a matter of someone else chosing which plane of
symmetry to use.

Not as far as increasing the odds of your winning the bet it doesn't.
Choose whatever plane of symmetry you want. If you find one that helps
you win the bet, good for you! It is actually to your advantage that
I do not define the plane of symmetry for you.

It's *YOUR* methodology, and you claim to have used it to study
granite objects.

Yep, and based on my study, it my determining the plane for you
doesn't change the odds of your winning the bet. At best, if you pick
the wrong plane the odds of your winning can only be reduced.

So which plane of symmetry did *YOU* use when *YOU* carried out your
study?

It didn't matter in my study as far as positive predictive value is
concerned. Those chosen that got closer to criteria with the chosen
plane had improved positive predictive value.

Correction: axes. You need to define two axis with which you can describe
a
plane for measuring reflection symmetry.

Pick anyone you want . . . it doesn't matter.

In that case, most designed objects are likely to be reported as not
designed.

That's true. No set of criteria for detecting artifact is going to
detect all or even most truly artifactual objects. That's one of my
main points in this discussion.

One of the points which you are studiously avoiding is the fact that
you are apparently unable to provide an example of *ANY* object which
meets your criteria.

*YOU* claim to have studied "thousands" of granite objects.
Of the thousands you studied which met your criteria?

Let me explain it to you like this . . . I've observed thousands of
cows in my lifetime and I've noted that no cow that I've ever observed
has been able to jump more than 10 meters. Many cows are able to jump
1 meter, some 2 meters, a few 3 meters, and so on. But none that I've
seen has been able to jump 10 meters. I therefore hypothesize that if
I see evidence that a cow has traversed 100 meters that it wasn't
achieved by the cow jumping under its own power. And, I don't ever
have to have seen this happen in order for this hypothesis to carry
with it a great deal of positive predictive power.

The same thing is true of angular symmetry with regard to the material
of granite. I've seen a lot of naturally produced granite forms. The
vast majority of them have very little angular symmetry of their
surface irregularities. Many of them do have some sort of vague
symmetry. Some have pretty good symmetry, to within 10% of
perfection. However, I've not seen one that comes to within 1% of
perfection. Therefore, I can be extremely confident in a hypothesis
that if any were to come within 0.001% of perfection it most certainly
would not be via some sort of non-deliberate natural process.

Now, I could be wrong here, but I highly doubt it - and I'll put up
$1,000 for anyone who can prove me wrong . . .

Are you starting to get the picture here?

< snip rest >

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


.

Relevant Pages

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