Re: If the earth is 6k years old

On Apr 17, 10:43 am, Mark VandeWettering <wetter...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 2007-04-17, Ian Chua <i...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:



On Apr 17, 9:56 am, Stuart <bigdak...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
On Apr 17, 3:30 am, Ian Chua <i...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Apr 16, 12:10 pm, Mark Isaak <eci...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

"> >> > > On Sun, 15 Apr 2007 19:34:20 -0700, Ian Chua wrote:
On Apr 15, 10:02 pm, Mark Isaak <eci...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sun, 15 Apr 2007 13:51:54 -0700, Ian Chua wrote:
If you had taken a course on "Forecasting", you would learn that the
"> >> > > >> > most accurate forecasts are those nearest from today.
The probabilities of forecasts further from today gets increasingly
smaller.

Your stock market example directly contradicts your point. The class of
investers who make the most money are long-term investors, since the
long-term trend of the market is almost always up (and drop the "almost"
for sufficiently long terms). Short-term forecasters such as you
describe tend to buy when the market has been going up in the short term
and sell when it has been going down, so they buy high and sell low, and
they end up *losing* money.

Incorrect - the big market movers are those who shifts the market in
the short term. Stocks are generally decoupled from the performance of
the company and are usually independent commodities. No one really
invests in the stock market.

Vanguard's Total Stock Market index fund has over $40 billion invested in
it. Vanguard also has other stock market index funds (one with over $70
billion), and other fund families have them, too. "No one" sure has a
lot of money to invest.

Gains are often random. And most are losers.

Day-to-day, yes. Not over the long term. Vanguard's Total Stock Market
fund, for example, gave a 10.8% average annual return since its inception
in 1992. Most managed mutual funds do worse.

In Singapore, the government does an analysis and provide a
report on number of people who gain or make loss by investing their CPF
Funds on stocks and shares. Majority are losers. Hence, stock trading
is a gamble rather than an investment. The most accurate price
prediction of the stock is the next day's price.

Yup, that's my point. Day-trading is a gamble. Long-term investing is a
near-certain win.

Trading across long-tern cycle has even greater risk because if the
cycle
comes down, the wait time is exceedingly long.

If you start investing when you're young, your horizon
is pretty long.

That's irrelevant. Suppose you start investing at 25 yrs. The market
has gone up and down for several years. Then, when you need the money
at 75 yrs, the price may be at the wrong part of the cycle. But you
need the cash, so you are "forced" to sell at a loss.

That's why if you need your money at 75 years, you don't have it in the
same kind of investments at 65 that you did at 55 or 45 or 35 or 25.
There are ways of insulating your investments against economic downturn.
These methods generally have lower yield, since they have lower risk, but
they offer greater protection.

This is too simplistic. There are not many options.
If you time your cashing out in each investment instrument every 10
yrs, you may still get caught in the wrong part of the cycle.
"Investments" which provide close to 100% protection are very
expensive - they are no longer "investments" but "insurance".
These days, insurance companies are quite creative - they do provide
many options which can vary your "investment" portion.
But just like unit trusts and shares, people have also lost money in
insurance!!

I notice that just keeping the money in the bank in US is very good as
the guaranteed returns can be more than 4%.
In most Asian countries, it is less than 2%.



In any investment, you need to compute your risk.
What is your risk?

Thats a very good question. It depends upon a number of factors. But
one of the most important is your age. If you're young you should be
investing agressively and taking risk. If you're old and nearing
retirement
you are more risk adverse since you will likely be living off
of your investments. At that point it is best to transfer your
investments
into something more conservative.

If you're working in a company, your boss wants to see your
calculation of risk.
What are your beta values, etc.?
And you need to generate various investment strategies, not just one
investment.
You need to demonstrate which of the several options is the
"best" (balance between returns and risk).

It is absurd for you to pretend that you understand anything of financial
risk after your truly moronic start in this thread.

I find it hard to believe you know anything about finance.

Stuart


.

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