Re: Science of choices falls out of research

In article <1148690893.113560.227250@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"nando_ronteltap@xxxxxxxxx" <nando_ronteltap@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Ian H Spedding wrote:

As has been pointed out many times, probability can be viewed as a
measure of our prior ignorance. The show's host chooses which door to
hide the car behind so for him there is certainty not probability. The
contestants, however, do not know which door the car is behind. They
can only estimate the probability of the car being behind a given door.
Moreover, their choices do not determine which door the car is behind.
The car's position has already been determined by the host. The
probability estimates are measure of the contestants uncertainty about
the position of the car.

Obviously this is ludicrous because a contestant can well be 100
percent certain that the car is behind door number one, regardless if
the contestant can't see the car.

Do explain this to me. How exactly can the contestant be 100 percent
certain that the car is behind door number one? How do they arrive at
this certainty? Is this true even in cases where the car is behind door
number two or three?

The probability is obviously derived
from probability theory, where like unto a 3 sided dice is thrown, and
it may end up on any side. That is to say the probability is derived
from a model of how the car got to be behind one of the doors.

What has been pointed out to me many times was simply from people who
haven't the faintest clue about probability theory. You are not
actually representing probability theory as it is in science.

Can you please cite even one place in the scientific literature where
probability is used in a way even remotely like yours?

I don't
want to suggest that scientists acknowledge the creationist view on
probabilities getting decided at a precise point, but the views of
people here are also not consistent with what I read in mainstream
science presentations about probabilities.

André

--
André G. Isaak
n.b. there are no monotremes in my email address

.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: Monty Hall problem
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