Re: Evolution and Observation Gap


"Jack Crenshaw" <jcrens@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:m6RYf.709$Fy2.308@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Richard Forrest wrote:
Jack Crenshaw wrote:

<snip>

My dear mother, rest her soul, told me that if my opponent in an debate
resorts to name-calling, it's because he has run out of rational
arguments.


I didn't call you names.

Really?

<am-not-are-too snipped>

Just because you find an opponent's comment insulting doesn't rule that
comment out of bounds in a rational debate. It's certainly fair to object
to ad hominem arguments, but those attack a position based on who the
defender is, not on the basis of what he says. For example, "Your plan
for welfare reform is unworkable because you are a liberal."

If you post ignorant comments, you may fairly be called an ignoramus.
It's fair because you may defend your arguments with facts, and if you
can't, you may change your status through education.

You asked me to show you the maths. I did. That's answering your
question.

Big revelation: A URL is not math. Unless, of course, you were the
author of any one of the referred papers.

Big revelation. a URL that links to math is math, no matter that the
person who cites the URL isn't an author. Are you really claiming that
if I quote the Mean Value Theorem to support an argument, then the URL

http://www.sosmath.com/calculus/diff/der11/der11.html

isn't math unless I'm the one who proved the theorem?


Were you??

What do you predict
will be the next new species? What changes to existing species?



That's not the nature of prediction in science.

It's not? Gee, I think Albert Einstein and Sir Arthur Eddington would be
surprised to learn that. You reckon Eddington made that long trip for
nothing?

I'm being a little flip, but this is really the heart of the difference
between sciences. In physics, we can actually use the math to predict
the outcome of experiments. Then we perform the experiments, and see
what happens. It's not limited to physics, of course. We can even test
the effectiveness of things like

o M&M's as used in behavior modification
o Hypnosis in efforts to stop smoking.

I ask again: What's your experiment? Where's your math?

Understand, I don't expect to get an answer. It's my guess that you're
no mathematician, and have never performed an honest scientific
experiment in your life.

This is precisely the kind of comment that I'd think you'd avoid. That
modern biology is a mathematically-backed science (albeit different from
physics) is independent of your opponent's credentials in mathematics
or lab skills.

Physics cannot predict where the earth will be in its orbit 200 million
years from now, any more than it can predict the position and behaviour
of individual molecules in a gas.

ROFL!!! As it turns out, we are just about two weeks past the vernal
equinox. Since calendar years are tropical years, I feel quite confident
that, 200 million years from now, the earth will be -- wait for it --
two weeks past the vernal equinox.

Calendar years, which are measures for human convenience, are 365
periods of dark and light. Tropical years, which mark the sun's
apparent cycle, are slightly more than a quarter of a day longer.
Depending where in the cycle you start, you'll get a different length
of the topical year, thus the necessity of defining -- wait for it --
the mean tropical year. Still laughing?


If there should be a lesson from this exchange, it should be this:
Beware of making declarative statements about things you don't
understand. It only makes you look foolish.

In fact, the well-known, three-body problem in dynamics leads to the
understanding that we cannot even predict the long-term stability of the
solar system, let alone the orbits of individual planets. This in spite of
the seeming predictability in the short term. How's the mirth now?


Evolutionary theory cannot predict specific events, any more than can
many other branches of science. Meterologists cannot tell you with any
degree of certainty what the weather is going to be in your back yard
on Thursday of next week.

Perhaps not, but they _CAN_ give you probabilities, and bound the limits
of, say, temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. That ain't bad for
a system that's chaotic.

Depends on whether you're in the path of that tornado. The bounds for chaotic
systems are intrinsic to the system, whether it's meteorology or population biology.
You find the bounds acceptable for the former but not the latter. But that's just you.
The mathematics is basically the same, however.

Having said that, evolutionary theory can make quite specific
predictions about what happens to populations of organisms in
controlled envirionments. For example, bacterial strains exposed to
antibiotics will evolve resitance to those particular antibiotics.

Oh, please. Is that your best shot?

That's not good enough for you?

<snip>

Deadrat

Jack


.

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