Is evolution accelerating?

Consider these evolutionary steps:

1. From the formation of the earth to to the first multicelluar
organisms took perhaps 4 billion years.

2. From tiny organisms to the first mammals took 400 million years.

3. From the first mammals to the first primitive monkeys took 150
million years.

4. From monkeys to hominid species such as chimpanzees took something
like 30 million years.

5. From hominids to walking erect took 16 million years.

6. From walking erect to humans painting on cave walls took 4 million years.

7. From cave paintings to the first permanent settlements took some
10,000 years.

8. From settlements to the invention of writing in Sumeria took about
4,000 years.

At this point biological evolution was surpassed by cultural evolution.
Humans could now store, recall and widely share their thoughts and
insights. And now it was:

9. 4,000 years to the Roman Empire.

10. 1,800 years to the Industrial Age.

11. 169 years to the moon.

12. 20 years to the Information Age where we now find ourselves.

And

13. ?????????

--adapted from _Radical Evolution_, Joel Garreau, p. 58


In exponential growth

dN/dt = k * N

where the change in a quantity N is proportional to the current value of
N, and

N = N0 * e^(kt)

is the solution to this differential equation and is the equation of an
exponential curve.

If, roughly speaking, N represents the complexity of an organism, then
do the above steps show evidence of an exponential growth curve for
human evolution? And can evolution be considered "progressive" in this
case?


--dkomo@xxxxxxxx

.

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