Re: Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament containsover three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the


al wrote:
> "John Stockwell" <john@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:Pine.LNX.4.61.0511141059100.16330@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > fake Richard Dawkins wrote:
> >
> > > Laws of
> > > Mathematical Probablilities
> > > http://members.shaw.ca/mark.64/hcib/mathlaw.html
> > > Mathematicians generally consider any event with a probability of less
> than
> > > 1 chance in 10 to the 50th power (a 1 with 50 zeros after it) as having
> a
> > > zero probability (it is impossible). According to the French expert on
> > > probability, Emile Borel, his "single law of chance" (1 chance in 10 to
> the
> > > 50th power) beyond which things never occur, "carries with it a
> certainty of
> > > another nature than mathematical certainty.it is comparable even to the
> > > certainty with which we attribute to the existence of the external
> world."
> > > As you read these next few pages remember that any event that has a
> > > probability of greater than 1 in 10 to the 50th power will never have
> > > occurred and/or never will occur.
> >
> >
> > Not really...
> >
> > http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html
> >
> >
> "Moreover, certain of these properties of living matter also belong to
> inanimate matter, when it takes certain forms, such as that of crystals. It
> does not seem possible to apply the laws of probability calculus to the
> phenomenon of the formation of a crystal in a more or less supersaturated
> solution. At least, it would not be possible to treat this as a problem of
> probability without taking account of certain properties of matter,
> properties that facilitate the formation of crystals and that we are
> certainly obliged to verify. We ought, it seems to me, to consider it likely
> that the formation of elementary living organisms, and the evolution of
> those organisms, are also governed by elementary properties of matter that
> we do not understand perfectly but whose existence we ought nevertheless
> admit".
> We have already discussed the formation of crystals on this NG and the
> consensus seems to be that crystal formation is a relaxed state of the
> chemical involved and as such is inevitable under the right conditions. This
> has nothing to do with the accretion of the first living organism. There is
> not one iota of evidence to support the inferred idea that life is a similar
> relaxed state of non-living matter and as such it follows that life did not
> arise in this way. The"elementary properties of matter that we do not
> understand perfectly" should say do not understand at all.
>
> If, as is again inferred by the above, the works of a German philosopher or
> the first organism are to come about by chance and the odds are to be in the
> realms of possibility then it must happen on a regular basis in order to
> eventually score a hit. This is something that is also unlikely as it has
> never been observed and if it did we would have many more cell structures
> than are extant. It is unlikely that the same arrangement would repeat.

Dear Al,

In layman's terms, Borel is saying that if his probability calculus
doesn't apply
even to crystals forming from solution, how could you apply it to
biology? In
short, you have to eliminate the non-random aspects of the problem
before you
can apply something like a Borel's "law" type analysis. In short
Borel's "law" doesn't
mean anything as applied to biology, and certainly there is no truth to
the statement that you were making initially that "mathematicians
generally
agree...." is false.

John Stockwell | john@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Center for Wave Phenomena (The Home of Seismic Un*x)
Colorado School of Mines




>
> al

.

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