# Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the

*From*: "Richard Dawkins" <Dawkins@xxxxxxxx>*Date*: Mon, 7 Nov 2005 18:23:21 -0700

Laws of

Mathematical Probablilities

http://members.shaw.ca/mark.64/hcib/mathlaw.html

Mathematicians generally consider any event with a probability of less than

1 chance in 10 to the 50th power (a 1 with 50 zeros after it) as having a

zero probability (it is impossible). According to the French expert on

probability, Emile Borel, his "single law of chance" (1 chance in 10 to the

50th power) beyond which things never occur, "carries with it a certainty of

another nature than mathematical certainty.it is comparable even to the

certainty with which we attribute to the existence of the external world."

As you read these next few pages remember that any event that has a

probability of greater than 1 in 10 to the 50th power will never have

occurred and/or never will occur.

1. The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to

the coming of the

Messiah. Forty-eight of these prophecies refer specifically to the life,

death, and resurrection of Jesus. All of the more than 300 prophecies were

published during an eleven hundred -year period that ended four centuries

before Jesus was born in Bethlehem. Professor Peter Stoner, using the laws

and science of mathematical probabilities confirmed and supported by H.

Harold Hartzler of the American Scientific Affiliation looked at the

probability of 8 prophecies, and 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one

person; Jesus Christ.

The eight prophecies are as follows:

1. The place of birth Micah 5:2

2. Time of birth Daniel 9:25; Genesis 49:10

3. Manner of birth Isaiah 7:14

4. Betrayal

5. Manner of death Psalms 22:16

6. People's reactions (mocking, spitting, staring, etc.)

7. Piercing

8. Burial

Peter Stoner found that the chance that any man might have lived down to

the present time and fulfilled all eight prophecies in 1 in 10 to the 17th

power (100,000,000,000,000,000). So just how big a number is this? If we

take 10 to the 17th silver dollars and lay them on the face of Texas they

will cover all of the state two feet deep. Now mark one of these silver

dollars and stir the whole mass of silver dollars thoroughly. Blindfold a

person and tell them that they can travel as far as they want but they must

pick up one silver dollar and say that this is the right one. This is the

same chance that the prophets had of writing these eight prophecies and

having them all come true in any one man, from their day to the present

time, providing they wrote them in their words. I think it is very safe to

say they had guidance.

Peter Stoner then looked at 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one man. The

odds of this happening turned out to be 1 in 10 to the 157th power. To show

how big a number this is we must use something much, much smaller than a

silver dollar. The electron is about as small an object as we know of. It

is so small that it will take 2.5 times 10 to the 15th power of them laid

side by side to make a line, single file, one inch long. If we were going

to count the electrons in this line one inch long, and counted 250 each

minute, and if we counted day and night, it would take us 19,000,000 years

to count just the one-inch of electrons. If we had a cubic inch of these

electrons and we tried to count them it would take us, counting steadily 250

each minute, 19,000,000 years x 19,000,000 years x 19,000,000 years or 6.9

times 10 to the 21st power. Now lets go back to our number of 10 to the

157th. Let's suppose that we take this huge number of electrons, mark one

and then stir the entire mass. Then we blindfold a man and tell him he can

choose any electron he likes but he only gets one try and it must be the

right one. What chance would he have in finding the right one? The same

chance as one man fulfilling all 48 prophecies.

It is very, very, very safe to say that the writings of the prophets were

guided by the hand of God.

2. THE PROBABILITY OF 17 PROPHECIES COMING TRUE IN ONE MAN; JESUS

CHRIST.

The prophecies:

i) He would be born in Bethlehem and be descended from the tribe of Judah;

Probability: 1 chance in 2,400;

ii) A messenger would precede the Messiah; Probability: 1 chance in 20;

iii) He would enter Jerusalem on a colt; Probability: 1 chance in 50;

iv) He would be betrayed by a friend; Probability: 1 chance in 10;

v) His hands and feet would be pierced; Probability: 1 chance in 100;

vi) His enemies would wound the Messiah; Probability: 1 chance in 10;

vii) He would be betrayed for thirty pieces of silver; Probability: 1

chance in 50;

viii) He will be spit upon and beaten; Probability: 1 chance in 10;

ix) His betrayal money would be thrown in the Temple and then given to buy

a potter's field; Probability: 1 chance in 200;

x) He would be silent before His accusers; Probability: 1 chance in

100;

xi) He would be crucified with thieves; Probability: 1 chance in 100;

xii) People would gamble for His garments; Probability: 1 chance in

100;

xiii) His side would be pierced; Probability: 1 chance in 100;

xiv) None of his bones would be broken; Probability: 1 chance in 20;

xv) His body would not decay; Probability: 1 chance in 10,000;

xvi) He would be buried in a rich man's tomb; Probability: 1 chance in

100;

xvii) Darkness would cover the earth; Probability: 1 chance in 1,000;

Combined probability = 1 chance in 480 billion x 1 billion x 1 trillion

or

1 chance in 480,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Remember that this is only reflective of 17 prophecies of a total of 48.

3. Modern research by NASA concludes that the most basic type of protein

molecule that could be considered living is made up of at least 400 linked

amino acids with each one containing a specific arrangement of four or five

chemical elements, and each chemical element is itself a unique combination

of protons, neutrons, and electrons.

Golay showed that the chance formation of even the simplest replicating

(able to reproduce on its own) protein molecule is 1 chance in 10 to the

450th power.

Wysong calculated that the probability of forming the proteins and DNA for

the smallest self-replicating entity to be 1 chance in 10 to the 167,626th

power, even with providing generous amounts of time and reagents.

COMPARISON OF EXPONENTIAL NUMBERS

number of seconds in 15 billion years = 10 to the 18th power

the earth weighs 10 to the 26th ounces or 10 to the 27th grams

the Milky Way Galaxy is estimated to weigh 3 x 10 to the 44th grams

the distance to the nearest star is 40 trillion kilometers or 10 to the 22nd

microns (a micron is 1/25,000 of an inch)

the circumference of the earth is 26,000 miles or 1.6 x 10 to the 9th inches

the number of inches across the "known" universe-an estimated 30 billion

light years or 192,000,000,000,000,000 miles-is 10 to the 27th inches

the number of grains of sand to fill the "known" universe is 10 to the 100th

grains

it takes 3,000 trillion hydrogen atoms to cover the period at the end of

this sentence.

¼ teaspoon of water has 10 to the 24th molecules in it but the estimated

number of atoms in the entire universe is "only" 10 to the 79th.

the total number of electrons and protons in the known universe is estimted

at 10 to the 80th power.

it takes 2.5 x 10 to the 15th electrons, laid side by side, to make one

inch. Counting these electrons at one per second would require 76 million

years.

A single drop of blood has 35,000 red blood cells. A single red blood cell

has 280,000,000 hemoglobin molecules, each molecule having 10,000 atoms. A

single human has 27,000,000,000,000 (27 x 10 to the 12th) red blood cells.

These are all really, really big numbers.

Now consider this.

DeNouy, assuming 500 trillion shakings (chance action and normal thermal

agitation) per second plus a liquid material volume equal to the size of the

earth, estimates that it would require 10 to the 243rd billions of years for

one single molecule to form. Remember that this is only one molecule, and

millions are needed.

Walter L. Bradley and Charles Thaxton, who are both noted creation

scientists, wrote in The Mystery of Life's Origin: Reassessing Current

Theories, that the probability of assembling amino acid building blocks into

a functional protein is approximately one chance in 4.9 x 10 to the 191st

power.

Harold Morowitz, a Yale University physicist calculated that the odds of a

single bacterium emerging from the basic building blocks necessary were 1

chance in 10 to the 100,000,000,000th power.

Coppedge wrote in Evolution: Possible or Impossible, that the probability of

the occurrence of the smallest theoretical life is only one chance in 10 to

the 119,879th power and the years required for it to evolve would be 10 to

the 119,841st years or 10 to the 119,831st power multiplied by the assumed

age of the earth!

FINALLY..

The odds of finally evolving just one man have been conservatively put at

one chance in 10¹º ¹² or one chance in 10¹ºººººººººººº. This is a figure

with a trillion zeros. If written out in a single line it would extend some

300,000 miles, and circle the earth 24 times. It would require a million

books the size of a 400-page novel to just print it. Yet beyond one chance

in 10 to the 50th, no chance remains-ever, even in all eternity, for an

event to occur.

Professor Michael Behe is an associate professor of biochemistry at Lehigh

University and author of Darwin's Black Box: The Biochemical Challenge to

Evolution. He makes it very clear that "I am not a creationist." Professor

Behe closes his book with the following words which are inspired by the

facts of science: "As we reach the end of this book, we are left with no

substantive defense against what feels to be a strange conclusion: that life

was designed by an intelligent agent."

A person would be considered foolish if they bet their entire life savings

on even one chance in a thousand-1 in 10 to the 3rd power. Now realize that

evolutionists are gambling on an issue far more vital to them than

retirement money with literally infinite odds against them. They are

gambling on the nature of ultimate reality, the odds that materialism is

true and theism (belief in God) false. If probability calculations and

other considerations relative to prophecy prove Christian theism true-and

heaven or hell hangs in the balance-one might assume people would be very

cautious about the risks they take. Apparently not.

.

**Follow-Ups**:**Re: Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the***From:*Roger Coppock

**Re: Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament containsover three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the***From:*John Stockwell

**Re: Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the***From:*Deadrat

**Re: Laws of Mathematical Probablilities -The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the***From:*eroot

*From:*MartinKess

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