Laws of Mathematical Probablilities The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to the coming of the
 From: "Richard Dawkins" <Dawkins@xxxxxxxx>
 Date: Mon, 7 Nov 2005 18:23:21 0700
Laws of
Mathematical Probablilities
http://members.shaw.ca/mark.64/hcib/mathlaw.html
Mathematicians generally consider any event with a probability of less than
1 chance in 10 to the 50th power (a 1 with 50 zeros after it) as having a
zero probability (it is impossible). According to the French expert on
probability, Emile Borel, his "single law of chance" (1 chance in 10 to the
50th power) beyond which things never occur, "carries with it a certainty of
another nature than mathematical certainty.it is comparable even to the
certainty with which we attribute to the existence of the external world."
As you read these next few pages remember that any event that has a
probability of greater than 1 in 10 to the 50th power will never have
occurred and/or never will occur.
1. The Old Testament contains over three hundred prophecies or references to
the coming of the
Messiah. Fortyeight of these prophecies refer specifically to the life,
death, and resurrection of Jesus. All of the more than 300 prophecies were
published during an eleven hundred year period that ended four centuries
before Jesus was born in Bethlehem. Professor Peter Stoner, using the laws
and science of mathematical probabilities confirmed and supported by H.
Harold Hartzler of the American Scientific Affiliation looked at the
probability of 8 prophecies, and 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one
person; Jesus Christ.
The eight prophecies are as follows:
1. The place of birth Micah 5:2
2. Time of birth Daniel 9:25; Genesis 49:10
3. Manner of birth Isaiah 7:14
4. Betrayal
5. Manner of death Psalms 22:16
6. People's reactions (mocking, spitting, staring, etc.)
7. Piercing
8. Burial
Peter Stoner found that the chance that any man might have lived down to
the present time and fulfilled all eight prophecies in 1 in 10 to the 17th
power (100,000,000,000,000,000). So just how big a number is this? If we
take 10 to the 17th silver dollars and lay them on the face of Texas they
will cover all of the state two feet deep. Now mark one of these silver
dollars and stir the whole mass of silver dollars thoroughly. Blindfold a
person and tell them that they can travel as far as they want but they must
pick up one silver dollar and say that this is the right one. This is the
same chance that the prophets had of writing these eight prophecies and
having them all come true in any one man, from their day to the present
time, providing they wrote them in their words. I think it is very safe to
say they had guidance.
Peter Stoner then looked at 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one man. The
odds of this happening turned out to be 1 in 10 to the 157th power. To show
how big a number this is we must use something much, much smaller than a
silver dollar. The electron is about as small an object as we know of. It
is so small that it will take 2.5 times 10 to the 15th power of them laid
side by side to make a line, single file, one inch long. If we were going
to count the electrons in this line one inch long, and counted 250 each
minute, and if we counted day and night, it would take us 19,000,000 years
to count just the oneinch of electrons. If we had a cubic inch of these
electrons and we tried to count them it would take us, counting steadily 250
each minute, 19,000,000 years x 19,000,000 years x 19,000,000 years or 6.9
times 10 to the 21st power. Now lets go back to our number of 10 to the
157th. Let's suppose that we take this huge number of electrons, mark one
and then stir the entire mass. Then we blindfold a man and tell him he can
choose any electron he likes but he only gets one try and it must be the
right one. What chance would he have in finding the right one? The same
chance as one man fulfilling all 48 prophecies.
It is very, very, very safe to say that the writings of the prophets were
guided by the hand of God.
2. THE PROBABILITY OF 17 PROPHECIES COMING TRUE IN ONE MAN; JESUS
CHRIST.
The prophecies:
i) He would be born in Bethlehem and be descended from the tribe of Judah;
Probability: 1 chance in 2,400;
ii) A messenger would precede the Messiah; Probability: 1 chance in 20;
iii) He would enter Jerusalem on a colt; Probability: 1 chance in 50;
iv) He would be betrayed by a friend; Probability: 1 chance in 10;
v) His hands and feet would be pierced; Probability: 1 chance in 100;
vi) His enemies would wound the Messiah; Probability: 1 chance in 10;
vii) He would be betrayed for thirty pieces of silver; Probability: 1
chance in 50;
viii) He will be spit upon and beaten; Probability: 1 chance in 10;
ix) His betrayal money would be thrown in the Temple and then given to buy
a potter's field; Probability: 1 chance in 200;
x) He would be silent before His accusers; Probability: 1 chance in
100;
xi) He would be crucified with thieves; Probability: 1 chance in 100;
xii) People would gamble for His garments; Probability: 1 chance in
100;
xiii) His side would be pierced; Probability: 1 chance in 100;
xiv) None of his bones would be broken; Probability: 1 chance in 20;
xv) His body would not decay; Probability: 1 chance in 10,000;
xvi) He would be buried in a rich man's tomb; Probability: 1 chance in
100;
xvii) Darkness would cover the earth; Probability: 1 chance in 1,000;
Combined probability = 1 chance in 480 billion x 1 billion x 1 trillion
or
1 chance in 480,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Remember that this is only reflective of 17 prophecies of a total of 48.
3. Modern research by NASA concludes that the most basic type of protein
molecule that could be considered living is made up of at least 400 linked
amino acids with each one containing a specific arrangement of four or five
chemical elements, and each chemical element is itself a unique combination
of protons, neutrons, and electrons.
Golay showed that the chance formation of even the simplest replicating
(able to reproduce on its own) protein molecule is 1 chance in 10 to the
450th power.
Wysong calculated that the probability of forming the proteins and DNA for
the smallest selfreplicating entity to be 1 chance in 10 to the 167,626th
power, even with providing generous amounts of time and reagents.
COMPARISON OF EXPONENTIAL NUMBERS
number of seconds in 15 billion years = 10 to the 18th power
the earth weighs 10 to the 26th ounces or 10 to the 27th grams
the Milky Way Galaxy is estimated to weigh 3 x 10 to the 44th grams
the distance to the nearest star is 40 trillion kilometers or 10 to the 22nd
microns (a micron is 1/25,000 of an inch)
the circumference of the earth is 26,000 miles or 1.6 x 10 to the 9th inches
the number of inches across the "known" universean estimated 30 billion
light years or 192,000,000,000,000,000 milesis 10 to the 27th inches
the number of grains of sand to fill the "known" universe is 10 to the 100th
grains
it takes 3,000 trillion hydrogen atoms to cover the period at the end of
this sentence.
¼ teaspoon of water has 10 to the 24th molecules in it but the estimated
number of atoms in the entire universe is "only" 10 to the 79th.
the total number of electrons and protons in the known universe is estimted
at 10 to the 80th power.
it takes 2.5 x 10 to the 15th electrons, laid side by side, to make one
inch. Counting these electrons at one per second would require 76 million
years.
A single drop of blood has 35,000 red blood cells. A single red blood cell
has 280,000,000 hemoglobin molecules, each molecule having 10,000 atoms. A
single human has 27,000,000,000,000 (27 x 10 to the 12th) red blood cells.
These are all really, really big numbers.
Now consider this.
DeNouy, assuming 500 trillion shakings (chance action and normal thermal
agitation) per second plus a liquid material volume equal to the size of the
earth, estimates that it would require 10 to the 243rd billions of years for
one single molecule to form. Remember that this is only one molecule, and
millions are needed.
Walter L. Bradley and Charles Thaxton, who are both noted creation
scientists, wrote in The Mystery of Life's Origin: Reassessing Current
Theories, that the probability of assembling amino acid building blocks into
a functional protein is approximately one chance in 4.9 x 10 to the 191st
power.
Harold Morowitz, a Yale University physicist calculated that the odds of a
single bacterium emerging from the basic building blocks necessary were 1
chance in 10 to the 100,000,000,000th power.
Coppedge wrote in Evolution: Possible or Impossible, that the probability of
the occurrence of the smallest theoretical life is only one chance in 10 to
the 119,879th power and the years required for it to evolve would be 10 to
the 119,841st years or 10 to the 119,831st power multiplied by the assumed
age of the earth!
FINALLY..
The odds of finally evolving just one man have been conservatively put at
one chance in 10¹º ¹² or one chance in 10¹ºººººººººººº. This is a figure
with a trillion zeros. If written out in a single line it would extend some
300,000 miles, and circle the earth 24 times. It would require a million
books the size of a 400page novel to just print it. Yet beyond one chance
in 10 to the 50th, no chance remainsever, even in all eternity, for an
event to occur.
Professor Michael Behe is an associate professor of biochemistry at Lehigh
University and author of Darwin's Black Box: The Biochemical Challenge to
Evolution. He makes it very clear that "I am not a creationist." Professor
Behe closes his book with the following words which are inspired by the
facts of science: "As we reach the end of this book, we are left with no
substantive defense against what feels to be a strange conclusion: that life
was designed by an intelligent agent."
A person would be considered foolish if they bet their entire life savings
on even one chance in a thousand1 in 10 to the 3rd power. Now realize that
evolutionists are gambling on an issue far more vital to them than
retirement money with literally infinite odds against them. They are
gambling on the nature of ultimate reality, the odds that materialism is
true and theism (belief in God) false. If probability calculations and
other considerations relative to prophecy prove Christian theism trueand
heaven or hell hangs in the balanceone might assume people would be very
cautious about the risks they take. Apparently not.
.
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