Re: My Hurricane Katrina Predictions

On 28 Aug 2005 18:12:37 -0700, in talk.origins
"Cyde Weys" <cyde@xxxxxxx> wrote in
<1125277957.314091.170160@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
>
>Dan Luke wrote:
>> "Cyde Weys" wrote:
>>
>> > Anyone else care to make predictions?
>>
>> Many people will be inconvenienced; a few will die.
>
>There's something like 100K people who will be stuck in New Orleans
>during the storm because they are too poor to afford cars and the
>government is too damn useless to help them. New Orleans is 10 feet
>below sea level and the storm surge is expected to be 20 feet. You do
>the math. That's going to be worse than just "a few will die". Also,
>methinks you didn't read the NOAA storm warning. It's at the end of
>this post.

If you need a storm shelter, you're going to be hard pressed to find one
better or bigger than the Superdome. New Orleans may have many poor
folks, but it is used to the idea that it could suffer serious and
widespread flooding. They have had plans in place to deal with such
storms for decades. NO and Louisiana may have seriously corrupt politics
(though not noticably worse than Maryland's) but they do know what
matters to their constitutents.

If the storm is so bad that it destroys the Superdome, there will be no
N O left.

>> Many homes and buildings will be damaged; a few will be destroyed.
>
>NOAA thinks otherwise. "AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES
>WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING
>THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED."

It depends on the wind speed at the time it hits N O.

>> Hundreds of thousands of homes will be without electricity for days or
>> weeks in the brutal Gulf Coast summer.
>
>And running water. "POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER
>POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL
>MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS."

That could be a serious problem. Under the worst conditions N O may be
uninhabitable for the next month. Aside from the fact that it made a
wonderful port, there was no reason to put a city there, but there it
is. It has survived other huge storms. I doubt that this one will make
it go away.

>> Life will go on.
>
>For many people, it won't.
>
The ones who die will most likely have made an unwise decision to stay
and not to come into one of the city/state shelters.
>
>
>---------------------------------------------------------
>WWUS74 KLIX 282139
>NPWLIX
>
>URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
>413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
>
>
>EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
> MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
>
>DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED
>
>MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
>LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
>FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
>DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
>
>THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
>PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
>FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
>BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
>WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
>
>HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
>FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
>
>AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
>AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
>VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
>ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
>WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
>
>POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
>AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
>INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
>
>THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
>THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
>CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
>KILLED.
>
>AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
>HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
>POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
>
>LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
>ASSUMPTION-HAN***-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
>LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
>ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
>TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
>UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
>413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
>
>
>INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
>
>HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
>FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
>PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
>ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
>ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
>AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
>
>DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

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