Re: Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?

On Sun, 11 Jan 2009 14:46:49 -0500, Jim Higgins
<gordian238@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/business/11electric.html?_r=1

DEARBORN, Mich. ? Inside the Ford Motor Company, it was called Project M
? to build a prototype of a totally electric, battery-powered car in
just six months.

When it was started last summer, the effort was considered a tall order
by the small team of executives and engineers assigned to it. After all,
the auto industry can take years to develop vehicles.

But Ford was feeling pressure from competitors, and decided it could not
afford to fall behind in the rapidly expanding race to put electric cars
in dealer showrooms.

?Frankly, I think it?s a gamble not to do it,? William C. Ford Jr., the
company?s executive chairman, said in an interview. ?It?s clear that
society is headed down this road.?

Certainly, Ford and other carmakers are betting billions of dollars on
this new direction, at a time when they can ill afford it and when
Detroit is facing government scrutiny after the $17.4 billion bailout of
G.M. and Chrysler.

Throughout the cavernous Detroit auto show hall, typically the high
temple of brute horsepower, auto companies will be competing this week
to establish their green and electric credentials. On Sunday, when the
show opens, Ford will announce plans for its electric vehicle, including
a goal to start selling them by 2011.

These are risky bets. There are no guarantees that consumers ? for all
their stated concerns about global warming, dependence on foreign oil
and unpredictable gas prices ? will buy enough of them. They may balk,
for example, at the limits on how far they can drive on a single charge.

But the companies could get some help from President-elect Barack Obama.
He has said he is committed to promoting cleaner cars, and may propose
incentives to encourage consumers and businesses to buy them.

Ford plans to make only 10,000 of the electric vehicles a year at first
? very few by Detroit standards ? to test the market cautiously.

Still, Mr. Obama?s interest, and the scope of projects by Ford and
others, is convincing some environmentalists that the industry is
serious about electric cars.

?I think the days of the gasoline engine are numbered, even if we don?t
know exactly what that number is,? said Daniel Becker, head of the Safe
Climate Campaign, which is part of the Center for Auto Safety consumer
advocacy group in Washington.

The competition over electrics is picking up speed and players. Toyota,
which has so far focused its efforts on hybrid models, will display a
battery-powered concept car at the Detroit show. Nissan?s chief
executive, Carlos Ghosn, has promised to sell an electric car in the
United States and Japan as early as next year.

Two Japanese automakers, Mitsubishi and Fuji Heavy Industries, the
parent company of Subaru, are also testing electric cars. And Chrysler,
the most troubled of Detroit?s three auto companies, has vowed to
produce its first electric car by 2010.

The surge toward electric vehicles also appears to be jump-starting
investments in advanced-battery production in the United States. General
Motors will announce plans at the auto show to build a factory in the
United States to assemble advanced batteries for its Chevrolet Volt
model, which it expects to start selling next year.

American auto executives have warned that without homegrown suppliers,
the country could potentially become as dependent on Asian-made
batteries as it is on oil from the Middle East and elsewhere.

?Automakers cannot afford the batteries until they are produced in a
certain volume,? said Brett Smith, an industry analyst at the Center for
Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. ?But they can?t be produced in
volume until companies make a big manufacturing investment.?

Strong consumer demand has to be part of that equation, too. And it
remains unclear whether consumers will be comfortable with the idea of
buying an electric car, or whether these vehicles will priced to compete
with comparable gas-powered models.

Ford would not say what its electric car will cost. The Chevrolet Volt
is expected to cost around $40,000.

?It?s the right time to take this step, but it would be presumptive to
try and predict what the market is ultimately going to look like,? said
Derrick M. Kuzak, Ford?s chief of global product development.

So far, consumers have proved to be fickle about how much they care
about fuel economy. When gas prices soared above $4 a gallon last year,
sales of the market-leading Prius hybrid surged so quickly that Toyota
could not build them fast enough. But demand sagged when gas prices
dropped below $2 a gallon.

Industry analysts also note that electric models could be a harder sell
than hybrids, which have a gasoline engine to assist and recharge
battery packs, freeing them from the need to be plugged in.

Most of the prospective electric models need to be charged for several
hours to cover a day?s worth of driving. Ford estimates that its car
will need at least a six-hour charge to travel 100 miles. The Volt can
get 40 miles on battery power alone, and it has a small gasoline engine
that drives a generator to extend its range.

Americans, on average, drive their cars less than 35 miles a day,
according to the latest federal statistics, and the industry is likely
to play up that fact in its advertising campaigns. With so many families
owning two cars, they may see an electric vehicle as an attractive
choice for short commutes and running errands.

One way to potentially take the worry out of being stuck with a spent
battery is to allow consumers to change them on the fly. The firm Better
Place, of Palo Alto, Calif., is working with Nissan and other carmakers
to set up stations to offer quick battery exchanges or plug-in charging
outlets in Japan, Israel, Denmark and elsewhere. The company has also
signed partnership deals in Hawaii and California.

?What will determine the market is not going to be how far your battery
can go, but how far your infrastructure is spread so power is
available,? said Shai Agassi, the chief executive of Better Place.

The American auto industry?s most notable previous foray into electric
vehicles came in the late 1990s, when G.M. introduced the EV-1. That
car, which was available in limited numbers only through leases, was
pulled from production before it could build a following (though a 2006
documentary about the EV-1 ? ?Who Killed the Electric Car?? ? has
developed a following of its own).

Now most of the major car companies have years of experience with hybrid
vehicles and their electric systems. While Ford?s Project M was started
last year, executives said the company had been moving in this direction
since early this decade. Ford first started selling its Escape hybrid
S.U.V. in 2004.

Mr. Ford recalled how he used to drive an experimental electric Ranger
pickup truck to work each day. ?The reason we used a Ranger was because
the whole back bed was full of lead-acid batteries,? he said.

The advent of smaller, more advanced lithium-ion batteries has also
allowed the car companies to develop electric cars that look, feel and
handle much like conventional vehicles.

Ford and its supplier partner, the Canadian firm Magna International,
built the Project M prototype in the body of a Ford Focus compact car.
It is planning a more distinctive design for the finished product when
it goes on the market in two years.

The modest expectations for initial sales are reflected in Ford?s plan
for introducing the car at the auto show Sunday. There won?t be the
usual dry ice, flashing lights and pounding music.

Instead, there will be a simple announcement at a news conference, and
the car will be parked on the street in front of the convention center,
available for short test drives by journalists through downtown Detroit.

Why would anyone other than a very specialized customer want an all
electric car with the range of a golf cart? At best, today's
technology is going to give an all electric car a range of 100 miles
dead flat one way, and look at GM's Volt -- they are jumping through
hoops to squeeze out 40 miles. Who would risk actually driving 100
miles (or 40) if that meant possibly running out of juice two miles
from the target? It's a vehicle suited only for a 20 mile commute to
work, or short trips to the market. That is not why most people buy a
car.
.