Re: Let Buffet do whatever he wants to do. - I don't trust him - How about a townhouse for 45k that was appraised for 273k in 07????

I'm also in about 10% with Rydex's 2x NASDAQ 100 fund, but will head
for the door fast if the market starts going down again. I think we
are in a trading range and currently on the way up. I am also in about
25% in Rydex's inverse Government Long Bond (i.e. short 30 year
treasuries).

I believe we are eventually heading for 7500, or lower, but the
question is when? Next year? The year after?


On Oct 17, 10:28 pm, jim <jim10...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I said recently that the thing to look for right now was property you
can steal with a little cash!!!  From todays Wash Post

Let Buffet do whatever he wants to do.  My view is that like a lot of
rich bastards who want to be bigger then they are by going into
politics, philanthropy or other directions, they can't be trusted.
Obama is in trouble and he scares the *** out of investors.  Buffet
would greatly ingratiate Obama to him by encouraging some chumps to
piss away their money on a market that could drop another 25%.  Buffet
has the leverage to go to a bank or other company and demand real
asset protection with both future options on the cheap and preferred
stock that has protections.  He will be paid before all the common
rabble like the rest of us.

He also has better information and can make a market by moving into
some company thus bouncing that dead cat higher for a while.  I am
only risking 10-20% on stocks now and will be out fast and only in
deferred account.  Otherwise, again the place to put money right NOW
is rental property.  You can steal property for next to nothing if you
are fast and aware.  See the item at:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/10/16/ST20081...

Foreclosures, Falling Prices Spur Pr. William Home Sales

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Freewheeling American capitalism may be falling out of fashion on Wall
Street, but in the western suburbs of Northern Virginia, it is driving
one of the greatest home-buying sprees the region has ever seen.

The epicenter of the boom is Prince William County, where enterprising
investors are scavenging the wreckage of the housing bust at a furious
pace. Last month, 1,116 homes were sold in the county, a 235 percent
increase from the same period last year and more than in any other
September on record, according to the Northern Virginia Association of
Realtors.

The buying frenzy is the silver lining of a staggering decline in home
values. With banks choking on a glut of empty, foreclosed properties,
the median sale price for detached single-family houses in Prince
William plunged 41 percent in the past year, from $405,000 to
$239,900. In September, 118 homes in the county sold for less than
$100,000, and many foreclosed townhouses sold for less than $70,000.
One three-bedroom Manassas townhouse recently sold for $43,500, even
though it was assessed at $273,100 in 2007.

"Prince William County is a fire sale," said Joey Remondino, a
"ridiculously busy" real estate agent with StoneHouse Realty in
Manassas. "People are looking for amazing deals, and I'm writing
offers as fast as I can," he said.

Nowhere else in the region has the drop in prices and surge in sales
been so extreme. Home buying in the county gained momentum over the
summer but shot upward last month, when more detached single-family
homes were sold in Prince William (579) than in Fairfax County (541),
which has three times as many houses.

Sales of detached single-family houses in Fairfax County were up 71
percent last month from September 2007 and the median price was down
24 percent. In Loudoun County, sales were up 47 percent and the median
sale price declined 17 percent. The housing markets in Arlington
County and Alexandria were generally more stable.

Sales in the Maryland suburbs was comparatively subdued as well.

In Prince William, the turnover of thousands of homes might have
implications that extend beyond the real estate market. Neighborhoods
with high numbers of foreclosures are likely to become more transient
as investors convert properties into rental units. In other areas,
families with enough cash and good credit will have access to
neighborhoods once deemed unaffordable. And homeowners who bought at
or near the market peak in 2005 may be stuck making monthly payments
two or three times as high as their neighbors are making for
comparable houses.

"I think the values will come back. A lot of people still see Prince
William County as a good investment," said Supervisor W.S. "Wally"
Covington III (R-Brentsville). "I'm hearing that a lot of young
military families are buying into the county."

Much of the dealmaking has been led by investors, according to real
estate agents who specialize in foreclosed properties. Doctors,
lawyers, engineers -- anyone with good credit and disposable cash --
are becoming part of a burgeoning class of landlords. Some are forming
business partnerships to acquire properties; others are realizing that
they can buy cheap homes and rent them out for more than the monthly
mortgage payments.

Some savvy customers are paying cash to beat out bidders who offer
more but need financing, real estate agents said. And because
investors have so many properties to chose from, few are willing to
look at properties that are not bank-owned. Even with the surge in
sales, there were more than 5,000 active listings in Prince William
last month, down from 6,500 a year earlier.

Because of the oversupply, banks are likely to continue slashing
prices, dragging down property values for nearby homeowners, in order
to maintain a competitive advantage over other sellers. But the
competition hurts banks as much as sellers by depressing prices
negotiated for short sales. In a short sale, the lender does not
foreclose but agrees to accept the proceeds of a sale made for less
than the amount of the loan.

For buyers, the dizzying pool of repossessed property is not likely to
dry up anytime soon.

In a well-kept subdivision on the outskirts of Manassas this week,
Tracy Comstock took her client, Chris James, to view a foreclosed
townhouse during his lunch break. The weeds in the back yard were
chest-high, but the 2003 home needed little more than a thorough
vacuuming to be ready for the rental market.

"Some of these places are so run-down, you walk in and walk right
out," James, a mortgage underwriter and Clifton resident, said while
inspecting the kitchen. The floor was clean, the appliances almost
new. "This one is a lot better than most of the stuff we've seen,"
James said.

In May, James bought his first investment property in Manassas, an
early 1990s townhouse he picked up for $168,000, more than $100,000
less than its assessed value. He quickly rented it for several hundred
dollars more a month than his mortgage payments. The family that moved
in had lost their home to foreclosure, he said, and could rent his
place for almost half of what they had been spending on mortgage
payments.

Bargain-hunting investors are the best hope for stabilizing
foreclosure-ravaged neighborhoods, he said.

"There are all these decent homes out there," James said. "If we have
the ability to purchase them and rent them to families at affordable
prices, it's a good thing for the community that they're not just
sitting here empty."

James said he avoids short-sale properties, but Comstock said she has
other clients who are willing to give them a look. "With a short sale,
the property is usually in better condition because the person is
still living there," she said. "But the bank may take five to six
months" to approve the sale.
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In the new market, Comstock said, she and other real estate agents
have learned to navigate the bureaucracy of large banks on behalf of
clients, and the process requires vast stores of patience. Sometimes a
bank's foreclosure department will repossess a home just as its
loss-mitigation department is nearing a deal for a short sale, she
said, explaining that the two departments may be located in different
states. "I've had them terminate a contact by mistake," said Comstock,
of Annandale-based Mega Realty and Investments.

The steep drop in prices has shattered the old psychology about asking
prices on homes. With so many houses on the market and so many buyers
on the hunt, some banks are aggressively underpricing homes to elicit
multiple offers.

"Prices are low enough that it's an auctionlike competition when you
go bidding for homes," said Maribel Alvarez, who specializes in
foreclosures and short sales in Prince William. "Investors are
purchasing low-end homes, so it's becoming harder and harder for
first-time home buyers because banks are looking for 20 to 30 percent
down."

Prince William is slated to receive several million dollars in
foreclosure assistance from the federal government in the next few
months, but short of a government foreclosure freeze, additional
bank-owned homes will hit the market.

There were 844 foreclosures in the county last month, land records
show, up from 256 a year before and 40 in 2006.

With recession fears running high, real estate agents are encouraged
by the market but urging caution.

"I think more people have come to the realization that this could be
the bottom, and now's the time to buy something while prices are low,"
said Keith Elliott Jr., a real estate agent with RE/Max Olympic in
Haymarket. "The problem is you have to think long term."

He added, "If you're going to be in the home for five to 10 years or
longer, you'll be fine."

.

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