Re: Smart Move Russia?


"al Guacamole" <aet@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:cdb3ccf1-70c5-4de4-9bd4-ee37d386abbb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


Jerry Okamura wrote:
"al Guacamole" <aet@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:3adc7355-a0ae-4e24-aa5e-5f876ca30b9c@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> On Aug 15, 10:40 am, "Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> wrote:
>> "Rita" <R...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>>
>> news:61hba4dj2qimiab7hvnfiq7g715u8bpn3q@xxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Fri, 15 Aug 2008 10:49:41 -0700 (PDT), al Guacamole >> > <a...@xxxxxxxx>
>> > wrote:
>>
>> >>Jerry Okamura wrote:
>> >>> "al Guacamole" <a...@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>> >>>news:0f08a6ac-f07b-44f2-b8c7-14b1c2f9a122@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >>> > On Aug 13, 1:51 pm, mg <mgkel...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> >>> >> On Aug 13, 5:04 pm, "Harry Thompson" <m...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> >>> >> > "mg" <mgkel...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>>
>> >>> >> >news:7bbf4e82-a27e-4b14-9249-c3875b684143@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> >>> >> > > On Aug 12, 2:34 pm, "Jerry Okamura"
>> >>> >> > > <okamuraj...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>> >> > > wrote:
>> >>> >> > >> "If" Russia does not stay in Georgia for too long, it >> >>> >> > >> seems
>> >>> >> > >> to
>> >>> >> > >> me
>> >>> >> > >> they
>> >>> >> > >> made
>> >>> >> > >> a smart move. Even "if" part of the world actually gets
>> >>> >> > >> around
>> >>> >> > >> to
>> >>> >> > >> doing
>> >>> >> > >> something to reverse what they did, it will take weeks or
>> >>> >> > >> months
>> >>> >> > >> before
>> >>> >> > >> it
>> >>> >> > >> is actually put in place. By that time, Russia will have
>> >>> >> > >> achieved
>> >>> >> > >> what
>> >>> >> > >> it
>> >>> >> > >> wanted to achieve it seems to me.
>>
>> >>> >> > > I agree. I believe Russia has accomplished its goal by
>> >>> >> > > securing
>> >>> >> > > the
>> >>> >> > > breakaway region of Ossetia. There's also the issue of
>> >>> >> > > Abkhazia
>> >>> >> > > and I
>> >>> >> > > would guess that Russia is kicking Georgia troops out and
>> >>> >> > > securing
>> >>> >> > > that area also. I'm also guessing that Russian troops might
>> >>> >> > > stay
>> >>> >> > > in
>> >>> >> > > both regions permanently, or at least a long time. I can't
>> >>> >> > > imagine
>> >>> >> > > what the president of Georgia was thinking when he decided >> >>> >> > > to
>> >>> >> > > play
>> >>> >> > > chicken with Russia and sent troops into those areas. Was >> >>> >> > > he
>> >>> >> > > thinking
>> >>> >> > > that the US cavalry or someone would ride in and save him?
>>
>> >>> >> > My two cents. Russia is being particularly smart not to press
>> >>> >> > its
>> >>> >> > win
>> >>> >> > over
>> >>> >> > Georgia. Russia must consider the effect that destroying >> >>> >> > Georgia
>> >>> >> > would
>> >>> >> > have
>> >>> >> > on its Western border - Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania,
>> >>> >> > Poland.
>> >>> >> > IMO,
>> >>> >> > whacking Georgia would frighten the bejabbers out of those
>> >>> >> > countries.
>>
>> >>> >> > Just as Bush's ill-considered "axis of evil" frightened Iran >> >>> >> > and
>> >>> >> > North
>> >>> >> > Korea
>> >>> >> > to develop nuclear weapons, the Baltics and Middle Europe >> >>> >> > would
>> >>> >> > feel
>> >>> >> > impelled to drastic measures. If Russia can get the message
>> >>> >> > across
>> >>> >> > "No
>> >>> >> > NATO,
>> >>> >> > and no American missiles on your territory, then you have
>> >>> >> > nothing
>> >>> >> > to
>> >>> >> > fear
>> >>> >> > from Russia", and really seem to mean it, then Russia will >> >>> >> > have
>> >>> >> > won
>> >>> >> > many
>> >>> >> > many points.
>>
>> >>> >> > I think we have been absolutely stupid poaching in Russia's
>> >>> >> > backyard,
>> >>> >> > and
>> >>> >> > even more stupid trying to get Georgia into NATO and sending
>> >>> >> > American
>> >>> >> > military advisers to Georgia, although Condoleezza Rice is >> >>> >> > now
>> >>> >> > in
>> >>> >> > denial
>> >>> >> > mode. She and her assistant, Daniel Fried, are now saying >> >>> >> > that
>> >>> >> > while
>> >>> >> > publicly we encouraged Georgia in folly, privately they >> >>> >> > warned
>> >>> >> > Georgia
>> >>> >> > against going to war in Ossetia.
>>
>> >>> >> > I hope our next administration is a tad more intelligent than
>> >>> >> > this
>> >>> >> > one.
>>
>> >>> >> I believe Russia's move was timely, smart, and effective. With >> >>> >> a
>> >>> >> little luck it might have taught America's Neocons something. >> >>> >> If
>> >>> >> not,
>> >>> >> it hopefully gave the American people something to think about.
>>
>> >>> > I agree. The use of such force and a quick withdrawal to Ossetia
>> >>> > guarantees that the Georgian govt will think twice before it >> >>> > starts
>> >>> > to
>> >>> > persecute Russians. Hope the US follows with work in the UN to
>> >>> > bring
>> >>> > some diplomatic process between the two countries. This is no
>> >>> > longer
>> >>> > the cold war.
>>
>> >>> Or it could be a start of another cold war?
>>
>> >>If you don't trust the Russians when they say the Cold War was >> >>insane,
>> >>then you really don't understand how close we came to a world wide
>> >>holocaust. In my opinion, Gorbachev or the Russians saw the threat >> >>of
>> >>holocaust before Reagan did. Reagan continued to spend billions on
>> >>star wars not realizing that it was making the problem infinitely
>> >>worse if the Russians decided to do the same. History revisionists
>> >>will say that it was a bluff. That he really didn't think that the
>> >>Russians would do something so stupid. In my opinion, they're giving
>> >>him too much credit for his mistakes.
>>
>> >>If you still want to go to a Cold War long after we've settled our
>> >>major differences, then you haven't learned from our mistakes. The
>> >>conflict which you see in Georgia is a lot like the "sectarian
>> >>violence" in Iraq that for several years, Bush and our press called >> >>an
>> >>"Al Queda" problem. The Russians see it for what it is, and lets >> >>hope
>> >>that the US and its allies don't try to make more than what it is. >> >>Or
>> >>Obama will need to straighten out the mess when he takes office. >> >>Let's
>> >>hope he is as fast a learner that we hope he is. And that this wont >> >>be
>> >>another Kennedy Bay of Pigs.
>>
>> > Let me say I agree with you on this one, Alvin.
>>
>> > Saber rattling, even without a clear intention of following it up
>> > with action, can result in very unpleasant consequences.
>>
>> > While in Cuba little David bested Goliath, the same would not be
>> > true in Georgia. Not with Russia on its doorstep.
>>
>> John Kennedy rolled the dice, and he won. But anyone who spent some >> time
>> learning about what was happening would tell you that just one wrong
>> step,
>> could have resulted in a real war. For instance, the Soviet >> submarines
>> operating in that area at the time where authorized to use their >> nuclear
>> weapons. It was the submarine commander who decided not to do that.
>
> Wasn't the missiles delivered in submarines? IIRC when I worked in the
> weapons area, that we remarked that the American ship in the way of
> the Russian sub could not fire at the Russian sub because American
> planners had removed the guns from the ship (as being archaic) while
> it's other weapons had too large a blast radius to fire at so close a
> target. The sub could have used its gun against the American ship or
> just used a torpedo to sink the ship.

I thought they were delivered by cargo ships. As I recall, that was the
first indication the US knew of what was going on, but I could be wrong on
that point. But I was not talking about how the missiles were delivered, I
am talking about the submarine that was in the area, with nuclear weapons,
that they could launch.
>
> The soviets miscalculated and did not think that the US would mind
> that defensive weapons were sited so close to the US. After all, the
> US sited strategic nuclear weapons at the very border of the soviet
> union and its allies. Good thing that cooler heads prevailed and the
> US responded to the Soviet backdown by withdrawing old Pershing
> missiles from Turkey as a face saving gesture to Khruschev. It's too
> bad that Khruschev was forced into retirement after that. In my
> opinion, he might have turned out to be another Gorbachev if he had
> stayed.

Still a game of chicken.

Jerry it was so long ago that my memory is probably just as flawed as
yours. However, I do remember that the standoff was between a US
warship and a Soviet submarine. Problem with Russian subs is that they
were not silent enough because of the lack of technology to design a
good propeller for propulsion. However, they were not above
challenging US subs and ships with a game of chicken when they were
detected. I suspect that the Russian sub captain knew that if he
surfaced close to the US ship that the US ship would be defenseless
against his sub. This is a stupid way to run a Cold War. When
Presidents get involved in it, then disaster can strike.

No, the submarine was not detected. Yes, the commander was given the authorization to use his nuclear capability. He just "chose" not to launch nuclear missiles, so he made the right decision. But that does not change the facts. He was in the area, it was a submarine with nuclear missiles, he had the authorization to launch the missiles.

.

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