Re: Economic models predict clear Obama win in November.

On Sun, 03 Aug 2008 07:47:06 -0400, Harry Hope <rivrvu@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:


From Reuters, 8/1/08:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0138628820080801?feedType=RSS

Economic models predict clear Obama win in November

By Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

It really is the economy, stupid!

Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all
post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a
victory for Barack Obama in November.

Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful
winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4,
based on current gloomy economic estimates.

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think
things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that
election outcome.

"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the
Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university
who built the earliest of the models in 1978.

His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and
a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John
McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2
percent.

_____________________________________________________

Sounds good to me.

Harry


It sounds scary to me if Obama only wins by five percentage points.
What are people thinking? Don't they realize who got the country
into the mess it's in now? Obama should be winning by at least three
to one, in my view, and even then the one-quarter not voting for him
belong in mental institutions.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: The new Great Communicator ... isnt
    ... Obama is stumbling in the stimulus debate -- and public support is ... Reich said something Democrats almost never say: ... and reviving the notion of government as an engine of capitalist ... organizing our public resources around what makes the economy strong. ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • America’s Sea of Red Ink Was Years in the Making
    ... There are two basic truths about the enormous deficits that the ... The second is that Mr. Obama does ... policies from the Bush years that are scheduled to expire ... The U.S. economy was not nearly as ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Re: Rural Versus Urban
    ... The Republicans can do a great deal of damage to Obama. ... If Obama doesn't do something and something relatively quickly, he's going to be in hot water. ... Republicans will simply wait out the business cycle and then claim their policies 'rescued' the economy. ... government has precluded the growing of the problem. ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Herbert Hoover II
    ... our economy is tanking because we have an unhealthy GDP. ... we had Franklin Delano Roosevelt to rescue us from the morass created by Republican policies geared towards the profit of the rich. ... To paraphrase the words of a former Democratic vice-presidential nominees, Barack Obama is no Franklin Delano Roosevelt; ... She tried to fool us by telling us she was considering all the candidates, but you may recall that I called that phony attempt at being objective and I said she was going to support Obama. ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • =?windows-1252?Q?Obama=92s_=91Redistributive_Change=92_and_the_Death_?= =?windows-1252?Q?of_
    ... socialize the American economy — as he vaporously puts it, ... International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. ... Obama expressly endorsed “redistributive change” in a 2001 ... government. ...
    (alt.politics.bush)