Economic models predict clear Obama win in November.

From: Harry Hope <rivrvu@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 03 Aug 2008 07:47:06 -0400

From Reuters, 8/1/08:

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0138628820080801?feedType=RSS

Economic models predict clear Obama win in November

By Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

It really is the economy, stupid!

Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all
post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a
victory for Barack Obama in November.

Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful
winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4,
based on current gloomy economic estimates.

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think
things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that
election outcome.

"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the
Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university
who built the earliest of the models in 1978.

His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and
a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John
McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2
percent.

_____________________________________________________

Sounds good to me.

Harry
.

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