Re: How low will the stock market go ?

On Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:15:28 -0400, Gary <not@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:44:14 GMT, Rumpelstiltskin
<PleaseDoNotReplyByEmail@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Fri, 20 Jun 2008 09:10:40 -0400, Gary <not@xxxxxxxx> wrote:


I avoid stock market predictions for the same reason most people do.
I hate to be caught in a big mistake. The professionals are careful
with their predictions. They always couch them in terms that can be
interpreted either way next week.

So where will the go ? Down !

We are on the verge of the first serious depression since 1929. For
those who like cycles -- that is almost 80 years ago. And 80 years is
a cycle that seems to always hold. Strauss and Howe's "Fourth
Turning" proves that.

Like everybody else -- I hope we avert a depression. The government
will do everything in their power to do so. They have already
attempted to bail out the banking industry -- but have they done
enough ? Not according to European observers.

What I find most troubling is how the stock market is so little moved
in the past year of bad news. All I can figure is that it is being
supported by the million of small investors with their tens of
thousand of dollars each. But what if the little suckers bail out ?
Or what if their holdings begin to be wiped out ? Will they finally
run like they should have a year ago ?

I would feel comfortable in getting back into the market when it
reaches 7000 on the Dow. Will that happen soon ? I don't know.
But certain signs from abroad point to the fact that thins could
collapse in a few weeks.

My prediction is --- this week will mark the beginning of a trip to
7000. Sometime between now and October we should hit bottom. Isn't
October historically the worse month for the Dow ?

Or .... maybe I'm wrong.




Looking back, it's plain that they (and I) should have run in
2000. The euro then was only 86 cents. If I'd cashed in all
my razzbucknik assets then and bought euros, I'd be almost
twice as rich now in razzbucknik terms, just by doing that,
disregarding any interest or other gains. I used to go to
Europe for cheap vacations. Now it's reversed, Europeans
are coming here for cheap vacations. I wonder if
Mexicans will be coming to the USA for cheap vacations
soon too? There is a lot of natural beauty in the USA to
see, unless we manage to wreck it.

Even when the stock market was 1600 lately, that was in
depreciated dollars, so in fact it had lost about 40% of its real
value already. Today the DJIA is below 1200, so it's worth
less than half in real terms what it was in 2000.

It seems to me unreasonable that housing prices are going
down. They're not dollar-dependent, so by rights it seems
they should have gone up. Maybe everybody's just panicking.

I'll never understand this stuff. I think it's not understandable,
because the egg spurts have already accounted for everything
in it that's understandable, so what's left, which is what we see,
is just the irrational component.

As to the collapse of the dollar (due to the size of the
National Debt), Reverend Wright should have said, "God
damn the Republican Party!"

Another four years of George W Bush and Mexicans will be coming to
America to slum around and buy cheap. Fortunately that's the one
thing we don't have to worry about. Thanks to the Constitution.
Otherwise ... I'd worry.

Did you ever stop to wonder just how many of the 5000 or so
corporations that are traded on the American stock exchanges would
make a profit if it were not for the American taxpayer and consumer ?
Maybe 10 or 20 ?


Everything comes from the people. As I've mentioned,
the luxury of the well-off is entirely derived from having
power over other people. Maroon them (us) on a desert
island and they'd (we'd) have to scrabble for food and
shelter just as any man in a pre-civilized state would.
That's my standard argument against any contention that
the well-off deserve luxury over other people. It comes
only from the indulgence of the existing social order, as
the former so-called "aristocrats" of France and Russia
once found out.

I do the French revolutionaries hadn't chopped off
Lavoisier's head though, despite how hated and how
wealthy he became from setting up the strangling Parisian
tax system. He was too good a scientist to lose,
whatever his shortcomings elsewhere.


And right now with gas prices up, food prices up --- the only thing
that isn't up is the outlook of the future for the average American.
Why ? We have supported every criminal enterprise that masks itself
as a corporation -- and now we are paying for our tolerance. In the
1800s, when the government failed to hang a dangerous criminal --
there were vigilance committees who would. How do you hang a
corporation ?


We can't hang the corporations, but as for the execs
who took billions for themselves while, often shamelessly,
impoverishing thousands of others, even emptying the
workers' retirement funds for their own ugly and selfish
benefit, we still know how to make guillotines. Maybe we
should dig up Robespierre, clone his DNA, and set him
about cleaning house.

The American people should have listened to me,
instead of letting those damned fools or charlatans
Reagan and the Bushes run up the National Debt,
perhaps now beyond redemption. =8-<


.

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