Re: Al-Qaeda is facing setbacks

Bush's solution to solving the problem of terrorism is to quit
publishing a report:

"Saturday, April 16, 2005

U.S. eliminates annual terrorism report

By Jonathan S. Landay

Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The State Department decided to stop publishing an annual
report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism
center concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than
in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered.

Several U.S. officials defended the decision, saying the methodology
used by the National Counterterrorism Center to generate statistics
had flaws, such as the inclusion of incidents that may not have been
terrorism.

But other current and former officials charged that Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice's office ordered the report, "Patterns of Global
Terrorism," eliminated weeks ago because the 2004 statistics raised
disturbing questions about the Bush's administration's frequent claims
of progress in the war against terrorism.

"Instead of dealing with the facts and dealing with them in an
intelligent fashion, they try to hide their facts from the American
public," charged Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and State
Department terrorism expert who first disclosed the decision to
eliminate the report in The Counterterrorism Blog, an online journal.

A senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity
because of the sensitivity of the issue, confirmed that the
publication was eliminated, but said the allegation that it was done
for political reasons was "categorically untrue."

According to Johnson and U.S. intelligence officials, statistics that
the National Counterterrorism Center provided to the State Department
reported 625 "significant" terrorist attacks in 2004. That compared
with 175 such incidents in 2003, the highest number in two decades.

The statistics didn't include attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, which
President Bush as recently as Tuesday called "a central front in the
war on terror."

The intelligence officials requested anonymity because the information
is classified and because, they said, they feared White House
retribution. Johnson declined to say how he obtained the figures."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002243262_terror16.html

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On May 30, 5:09 am, Billy J Maxwell <billymaxw...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a
resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now
portrays the terrorist movement as essentially defeated in
Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of
the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along
the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major
gains against al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an
increasingly successful campaign to destabilize the group's
core leadership.

While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat,
Hayden said Osama bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts
and minds in the Islamic world and has largely forfeited his
ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents. Two
years ago, a CIA study concluded that the U.S.-led war had
become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda,
generating cash donations and legions of volunteers.

All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with The
Washington Post this week that coincided with the start of his
third year at the helm of the CIA.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down
a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda
in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia.
Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally — and here I'm
going to use the word 'ideologically' — as a lot of the
Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

'Own worst enemy'
The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared
by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it
is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some
credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on
the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator
strikes has dramatically increased from previous years. But
analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the
past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as
well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its
support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is
that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a
former top CIA counterterrorism official who is now managing
director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. "Where they have
succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves."

Others warned that al-Qaeda remains capable of catastrophic
attacks and may be even more determined to stage a major
strike to prove its relevance. "Al-Qaeda's obituary has been
written far too often in the past few years for anyone to
declare victory," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at
Georgetown University. "I agree that there has been progress.
But we're indisputably up against a very resilient and
implacable enemy."

A landmark study last August by the 16 U.S. intelligence
agencies described the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area as a
de facto al-Qaeda haven in which terrorist leaders were
reorganizing for attacks against the West. But Hayden said
counterterrorism successes extend even to that lawless region.
Although he would not discuss CIA operations in the area, U.S.
intelligence agencies have carried out several attacks there
since January, using unmanned Predator aircraft for surgical
strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban safe houses.

"The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaeda
continues, and keeps them off balance — even in their best
safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border," Hayden said.

But terrorism experts note the lack of success in the U.S.
effort to capture bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman
al-Zawahiri. Intelligence officials say they think both are
living in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal area in locations
known only to a few top aides. Hayden said capturing or
killing the pair remains a top priority, though he noted the
difficulties in finding them in a rugged, remote region where
the U.S. military is officially forbidden to operate.

Apprehension
The Bush administration has been watching political
developments in Pakistan with apprehension, worried that the
country's newly elected leadership will not be as tolerant of
occasional unilateral U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda as was the
government of President Pervez Musharraf, a close ally in the
U.S. fight against terrorism.

Hayden declined to discuss what agreements, if any, have been
brokered with Pakistan's new leaders, but he said, "We're
comfortable with the authorities we have."

Since the start of the year, he said, al-Qaeda's global
leadership has lost three senior officers, including two who
succumbed "to violence," an apparent reference to Predator
strikes that killed terrorist leaders Abu Laith al-Libi and
Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi in Pakistan. He also cited a
successful blow against "training activity" in the region but
offered no details. "Those are the kinds of things that delay
and disrupt al-Qaeda's planning," Hayden said.

Growing complacency?
Despite the optimistic outlook, he said he is concerned that
the progress against al-Qaeda could be halted or reversed
because of what he considers growing complacency and a return
to the mind-set that existed before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"We remain worried, and frankly, I wonder why some other
people aren't worried, too," he said. His concern stems in
part from improved intelligence-gathering that has bolstered
the CIA's understanding of al-Qaeda's intent, he said.

"The fact that we have kept [Americans] safe for pushing seven
years now has got them back into the state of mind where
'safe' is normal," he said. "Our view is: Safe is hard-won,
every 24 hours."

Hayden, who has previously highlighted a gulf between
Washington and its European allies on how to battle terrorism,
said he is troubled that Congress and many in the media are
"focused less on the threat and more on the tactics the nation
has chosen to deal with the threat" — a reference to
controversial CIA interrogation techniques approved by
Hayden's predecessors.

"The center line of the national discussion has moved, and in
our business, our center line is more shaped by the reality of
the threat," Hayden said.

On Iraq, he said he is encouraged not only by U.S. success
against al-Qaeda's affiliates there, but also by what he
described as the steadily rising competence of the Iraqi
military and a growing popular antipathy toward jihadism.

"Despite this 'cause célebrè' phenomenon, fundamentally no one
really liked al-Qaeda's vision of the future," Hayden said. As
a result, the insurgency is viewed locally as "more and more a
war of al-Qaeda against Iraqis," he said. Hayden specifically
cited the recent writings of prominent Sunni clerics —
including some who used to support al-Qaeda — criticizing the
group for its indiscriminant killing of Muslim civilians.

Iranian interference
While al-Qaeda misplayed its hand with gruesome attacks on
Iraqi civilians, Hayden said, U.S. military commanders and
intelligence officials deserve some of the credit for the
shift, because they "created the circumstances" for it by
building strategic alliances with Sunni and Shiite factions,
he said.

Hayden warned, however, that progress in Iraq is being
undermined by increasing interference by Iran, which he
accused of supplying weapons, training and financial
assistance to anti-U.S. insurgents. While declining to endorse
any particular strategy for dealing with Iran, he described
the threat in stark terms.

"It is the policy of the Iranian government, approved at the
highest levels of that government, to facilitate the killing
of American and other coalition forces in Iraq. Period," he said.

--
The "Surge" is working.

.

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