Re: Obama the Inevitable
- From: "free.tuneup@xxxxxxxxx" <free.tuneup@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:28:16 -0700 (PDT)
On Apr 30, 9:08 am, "Lee K" <lee_keed...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Obama the Inevitable
By Gabor Steingart in Washington
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,550351,00.html
The issue of race has emerged as the key Democratic divide in this year's
primary season. Despite his waning support amongst white voters, though, the
superdelegates appear to have no other choice but to vote for Barack Obama..
A vote against him could have serious consequences.
There is a phenomenon in opinion research called the Bradley effect, named
after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. When Bradley, who was black, ran
to become governor of California in 1982, he was the frontrunner in all
opinion polls until the very end of the campaign. But he lost on election
day.
Since then, the term has been used to denote a serious shift in voter
preferences caused by racial prejudice against a candidate -- prejudice that
voters would never admit openly, but then express in all secrecy in the
voting booth.
A more intense version of the Bradley effect has taken shape within the
Democratic Party in 2008. "There is no white America," Barack Obama has
said. "There is no black America. There is no Latino America. There is no
Asian America. There is just the United States of America." Many prominent
politicians of all skin colors, from New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to
Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy to Jesse Jackson, seem to agree with him..
But the public euphoria is increasingly bumping up against the resistance of
ordinary Democratic voters.
Within the Democratic Party, which likes to call itself the "party of the
people," cheering on and voting for a candidate appear to be two very
different things. Voters who say in public that they are inspired are
sometimes quick to change their minds and settle scores in the election
booth. In fact, perhaps the Bradley effect should be renamed the Obama
effect.
A Uniter who Divides the Party
A significant segment of ordinary, middle-class Democrats, especially
blue-collar workers and retirees, vote along racial and ethnic lines. The
questions that interest them are politically relevant, but not politically
correct. Is Obama an American with black skin color or a black man with an
American passport? Is he a stranger or does he just seem like one? Is he
part of the whole or just part of a segment of society? Ironically, the one
candidate who is campaigning as a uniter appears to be dividing the party --
so much so, in fact, that the party establishment has spent the last few
days debating Obama's electability.
When there was still something playful about the Obama euphoria, significant
numbers of whites were voting for the black candidate and blacks for the
white candidate. Obama found strong support among white voters in the
Democratic primaries in Iowa, Kansas, Idaho and Colorado. Hillary Clinton,
on the other hand, captured the votes of many African Americans. But this
lightness has now vanished, and animosity and open hostility amongst the
electorate have taken its place. The Democratic divide has become all the
more apparent in states with large blue-collar populations, like Ohio and
Pennsylvania, even to those who until then had believed that the entire
country had succumbed to what had been described as Obama's "messiah
factor." In Ohio, as in Pennsylvania, an overwhelming majority of white,
blue-collar workers voted for Clinton. By the same token, a huge majority of
African Americans voted for Obama.
Growing Disenchantment
It seems as if the majority of African Americans are now forming a barricade
around Obama in the increasingly heated primary battle. The Clintons have
ripped open the divide with their clearly ambiguous remarks, and the Obamas
have only widened that divide. One of the reasons that the hate-filled
sermons coming from Reverend Jeremiah Wright, with his suggestion that "God
damn America," were so troubling was that Obama had called him his
"spiritual mentor" in the past. And it didn't help when Obama's wife
Michelle said that her husband's bid to become president had made her proud,
for the first time in her adult life, to be an American. Though refreshingly
open, the statement was also politically naïve.
Reverand Wright certainly complicated matters for Obama this week with his
rehabilitation tour. He has once again energized the black and white
debate -- only this time to the detriment of the Illionois Senator. Wright,
though isn't the main force driving white voters' away from the Obama camp..
The trend coincides with white voters' growing disenchantment with the
candidate. His message of hope and change is beginning to sound like a
broken record. Phrases like "We are the ones we've been waiting for" sound
lofty at first, but they eventually lose their appeal.
Nevertheless, the debate that has now begun comes too late for Hillary
Clinton. The superdelegates, who can vote for the candidate of their choice
without taking voter preferences into account, in fact have no other choice
but to nominate Obama. They will have to suppress the growing fear that the
Democrats cannot win the election against Republican candidate John McCain
in November if Obama is their candidate. Still, as long as Obama can hold
onto his slight lead in the number of pledged delegates, he will be the
inevitable candidate. In fact, there is now almost a national political
obligation to nominate Obama. A vote by superdelegates against Obama would
set off shock waves within American society, with incalculable consequences.
Young people would be outraged, intellectuals would be bitter and violence
could erupt in predominantly black urban neighborhoods around the country.
America's not Burning, but it Is Smoldering
An apparent rejection of her black rival would also do more to harm Hillary
Clinton than help her campaign. A candidacy against the background of angry
youth or even burning barricades would be of little value. Thus, it is not
Obama himself who now offers the strongest argument for his nomination, but
the history of his ancestors. In fact, with his history standing at his
side, Obama hardly needs to try any longer. This history peers into the
present, sadly and silently, from a time we commonly call the past. And yet
this is a past that America cannot seem to shake.
It was only 144 years ago that the American South fought a civil war to
defend its right to slavery. Civil rights activist Martin Luther King was
assassinated 40 years ago. Twenty years ago, black presidential candidate
Jesse Jackson failed in the primaries because he was unable to gain the
support of white Democrats. Racial barriers have been lowered since then,
but they have not disappeared altogether.
It may not be burning, but it is smoldering in America. After seven years of
George W. Bush, the Democratic Party has vowed to reconcile the country with
itself. And now it will at least have to try, even if it means losing the
presidency.
Whatever it takes. No doubt in my mind that Hillary will be very
insistant that all her voters support Obama. When it is all done, you
will find a ton of new registered voters and independents voting
Democratic. The alternative is a dead white man, McDead.
.
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