Re: Maunder Minimum

On Sat, 9 Feb 2008 16:24:43 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Fri, 8 Feb 2008, El Castor wrote:

On Fri, 8 Feb 2008 08:39:54 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Wed, 6 Feb 2008, El Castor wrote:

When CERN decides to design a $20 million project
based on your research, as they have for
Svensmark's "poor information", be sure to let me
know.

"CLOUD is an experiment that uses a cloud chamber
to study the possible link between galactic cosmic
rays and cloud formation. Based at the Proton
Synchrotron at CERN, this is the first time a
high-energy physics accelerator has been used to
study atmospheric and climate science; the results
could greatly modify our understanding of clouds
and climate.

Hey they have to justify the cost of these super
expensive accelerators. I don't deny that clouds are
important. Just don't think that cosmic rays are so
important. Why? because the solar wind is largely
deflected by the earth's magnetic field. Showing
that cosmic rays could help form clouds is just a
tinny winny step towards showing that they are the
major contributor to cloud formation. You need to
get your head out of the clouds. You're starting to
believe everything you hear. Research is nowhere
near so conclusive about his speculation.

Cosmic rays may have little impact on cloud formation
over land, however it is becoming increasingly likely
that they are an important factor in low level cloud
formation over water. The fact that cosmic rays are
capable of acting as a precipitating agent in cloud
formation was proved using naturally occurring cosmic
rays in the SKY experiment at the Danish National
Space Center in the year 2000. The CERN CLOUD project
was funded in 2006 to the tune of 20 million euros
and is expected to be fully operational in 2010.

The following is derived from a workshop conducted at
CERN in May of 2001.

"CONCLUSIONS OF THE WORKSHOP ON ION-AEROSOL-CLOUD
INTERACTIONS CERN, 18-20 APRIL 2001 Executive Summary
Recent observations suggest that cosmic rays may play
a significant role in the climate. In particular,
satellite data have revealed a surprising correlation
between cosmic ray intensity and the fraction of the
Earth covered by low clouds. Since the cosmic ray
intensity is modulated by the solar wind, this could
provide an important clue to the long-sought
mechanism connecting solar and climate variability.
Moreover, if this connection were to be established,
it could have significant consequences for our
understanding of the solar contributions to the
present global warming, since the cosmic ray
intensity has fallen during the 20th century due to a
more-than-doubling of the strength of the solar
wind."
http://cloudws.web.cern.ch/cloudws/documents_talks/IACI_conclusions/IACI_conclusions.pdf

Every once in a while your stuff has something goofy
like the above where "cosmic ray intesity has fallen...
due to ...doubling... of the solar wind". A lot of our
cosmic rays come from the solar wind.

Just to be clear, cosmic rays come in two flavors, high energy and
ultra-high energy. ALL (as in ALL) are of extra solar origin with the
lower energy particles probably being produced by supernovas and/or
the shock waves of supernovas. Ultra-high energy particles originate
from outside the galaxy, but the mechanism which produces them is
unknown. None "come from the solar wind".

Why would
doubling it lead to a decrease.

The sun's magnetosphere works to deflect cosmic rays, and therefore if
the magnetosphere doubles in size, it deflects more cosmic rays. The
larger the magnetosphere, the fewer cosmic rays strike the earth. To
once again summarize, over the last half century the sun has gone
through a period of unusually intense activity characterized by
increased sunspot formation. Therefore, one might anticipate that
fewer cosmic rays have struck the earth, producing fewer low level
clouds, and have therefore contributed to global warming.

Perhaps you refer to extra-solar cosmic rays?

If you are referring to the conclusions of the
Workshop On Ion-Aerosol-Cloud Interactions held at
CERN, 18-20 APRIL 2001, please be assured that "I" did not have a hand
in writing those conclusions, therefore "I" didn't refer to anything.
The summary which I quoted was the work of Sir Arnold Wolfendale,
professor emeritus of the University of Durham, and former Astronomer
Royal of Great Britain. If you disagree with the conclusions of the
CERN workshop, I would encourage you to contact Sir Arnold at the
following address and set him straight: a.w.wolfendale@xxxxxxxxxxxx

Let us know what he has to say for himself.

Then why can't they also enter
with the solar wind to the earth.

Let me repeat. There is no question that increased solar activity
extends the sun's magnetosphere, which in turn serves to partially
shield the earth from cosmic rays. There is also no question that
cosmic rays play a part in cloud formation. That, as Al Gore would
say, is settled science. However, legitimate questions remain as to
the size of the effect, as well as it's influence at high altitudes.
The CERN CLOUD study is expected to many of those questions.

All this indicates
that we are still about 10 years away for even a rough
indication of proving a strong influence of Cosmic rays
on the solar wind. Why toot your horn so loud? It's not
here yet.

Probably more like 3 - 4 years. How long will it be before the case
for the significance of anthropogenic CO2 warming is proved? Perhaps
much longer. In the meantime I drive a Prius and light most of the
house with CFLs. How about you?
.

Relevant Pages

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