Re: Maunder Minimum

On Wed, 6 Feb 2008 08:56:25 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Tue, 5 Feb 2008, El Castor wrote:

On Tue, 5 Feb 2008 07:06:03 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Sat, 2 Feb 2008, El Castor wrote:

On Fri, 1 Feb 2008 14:33:45 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Thu, 31 Jan 2008, El Castor wrote:

On Thu, 31 Jan 2008 12:01:39 -1000, "Alvin E. Toda"
<aet@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008, El Castor wrote:

Have you read Dr. Solanki's comments on sun spots
and solar activity?. Obviously not. Here's another
excellent source on the subject, Dr. Nir Shaviv.
http://www.sciencebits.com/

I would remind you that the Earth has gone through
many periods of warming and cooling -- without
benefit of anthropogenic CO2.

Afraid of views that might conflict with your own?

Sorry I just can't take such outlandish theories
seriously. IIRC there was an interesting one that
you mentioned that theorized that during the
rotation of the sun about galaxy, that perhaps
particle streams were intense enough to cause a lot
of heating in the earth's atmosphere? Or perhaps
absorbed enough of the sun's radiant energy in the
passage from the sun to the earth to produce a
cooler earth?

Experiments conducted by Dr. Henrik Svensmark of the
Danish National Space Centre have shown that cosmic
rays can act to precipitate low level cloud
formation, particularly over areas of the earth
covered by the oceans. Low level clouds have been
shown to have a cooling effect, while very high level
clouds tend to contribute to warming.

Here the point I find that you neglect to point out
that probably there are a lot of other factors of low
level clouds-- polution from fires for example? I've
never heard of huge low clouds formed by cosmic rays.

The Earth's passage through areas of denser cosmic
ray activity in the arms of the Milky Way correlates
with ice ages over the past several million years,
however the sun may have a more short term effect.
Periods of intense solar activity, which are
characterized by increased numbers of sun spots,
result in the expansion of the sun's magnetosphere to
an extent sufficient to partially shield the Earth
from cosmic rays.

That seems impossible because the ionized atmosphere of
the sun has such high magnetic permeability. You might
say it's like a gaseous metal that will trap the sun's
magnetic field like an electromagnet's wires that traps
and concentrates the electromagnets field to produce an
electromagnet. There is always a weak field from sun
near earth, but you imply that a great deal of the
atmosphere would have to blasted off the sun to
strenghten the field arround the earth.

Thus, periods of high sun spot activity and a
correspondingly large magnetosphere may be
accompanied by lessened low level cloud formation
over the oceans and a correspondingly warmer climate.
Periods of low solar activity, which are accompanied
by fewer sun spots and a shrunken magnetosphere, may
result in increased cloud formation and a cooling
effect. Perhaps coincidentally, or not, the so called
Little Ice Age of the Maunder Minimum was accompanied
by a period of very few sunspots.

Yes. The solar field on the solar surface extends
further into space during the peak activity period. But
since there is no field that can reach the distance of
earth without the disgorgement of huge amounts of
plasma to carry it to earth, it can't go far enough.
Besides there are so many other sources, such as
polution from fires, that can affect low cloud
formation, that even against the odds that the somehow
the field managed to reach here (it always does. I
think that you mean the solar field might become the
order of the earth's magnetic field in the vacinity of
Earth?) it wouldn't be noticed for all the other
sources of low cloud formation.

In any event, sun spots in and of themselves almost
certainly have no effect on the Earth's climate,
however they are symptomatic of other changes in
solar activity that may have important consequences
for our climate.

You can read all about Dr. Svensmark's research
here:
http://spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate/other/global-warming

I like your galaxy rotation theory better. Perhaps
when have gotten our green house gasses under
control and have gotten in another place in the
galaxy we'll find out what the external source of
the ice ages are (if it exists). It could be
something like a field of asteroids that we
encounter that smash into the earth? Or perhaps
within the rhythms of the planet (changes in snow
cover, rain distribution, etc), analysis can show
that there is some point of instability that can
lead to climate change? That point might for example
still be man-made, or natural life if man was not
here. It's still to be discovered.

Alvin, I have provided you with plenty of reading
material. You should avail yourself. Svensmark's
discoveries regarding cosmic rays and cloud formation
have been widely accepted in the scientific
community, even by those who are believers in
anthropogenic CO2 as the source of global warming.
Your remarks serve only to demonstrate that you are
clueless.

He may have discovered a relation, but he needs to
do more work on that. I haven't seen much reporting
on his discoveries on clouds in the papers which
leads me to suspect that it's still a controversial
theory of cloud formation. As for his speculation on
the sun's magnetosphere and galactic cosmic rays,
that hardly seems worth the time to read unless they
have been studied with some observations and
explained by models.

* Camp, C. D., and Tung, K. K., Surface warming by
the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean
difference projection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L14703, 2007.
* Dickinson, R. E., Solar Variability and the
Lower Atmosphere, Bul. Am. Met. Soc., 56, 1240-1248,
1975.
* Douglass, D. H., and B. D. Clader, Climate
sensitivity of the Earth to solar irradiance,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(16), 1786, 2002.
* Eichkorn, S., S. Wilhelm, H. Aufmhoff, K. H.
Wohlfrom, and F. Arnold, Cosmic ray-induced aerosol
formation: first observational evidence from aircraft
based ion mass spectrometer measurements in the upper
troposphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29,
10.1029/2002GL015,044, 2003.
* Harrison, R. G., and K. L. Aplin, Atmospheric
condensation nuclei formation and high-energy
radiation, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 63, 1811?1819,
2001.
* Harrison, R. G., and Stephenson, D. B. Empirical
evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic
rays on clouds, Prof. R. Soc. A,
doi:10.1098/rspa.2005.1628, 2006.

Lot of this is ancient, and only the last offers some
"empirical" evidence. I'm disappointed that you offer
poor information.

2007 is ancient? Getting published in 2008 is difficult. It's only the
first week of February.


* Lockwood, M., & C. Fröhlich, Recent oppositely directed trends
in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature,
Proc. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880; 2007.
* Marsh, N., and H. Svensmark, Galactic cosmic ray and El
Niño?Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud
Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties, J. Geophys. Res.,
108(D6), 4195, doi:10.1029/2001JD001264, 2003.
* Ney, E. P., Cosmic radiation and weather, Nature, 183, 451,
1959.
* Shaviv, N. J., The spiral structure of the milky way, cosmic
rays, and ice age epochs on earth, New Astron., 8, 39?77, 2003
* Shaviv, N. J., On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray
flux and radiative budget, J. Geophys. Res, 110, A08105, 2005.
* Shaviv, N. J., and J. Veizer, A celestial driver of phanerozoic
climate?, GSA Today, 13, 4?11, 2003.
* Svensmark, H., Cosmoclimatology: A New Theory Emerges, Astron.
Geophys., 58, 1.19-1.24., 2007.
* Svensmark, H. et al., Experimental evidence for the role of ions
in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proc. Roy. Soc.
A., 463, 385-396, 2007.
* Usoskin, I. G., N. Marsh, G. A. Kovaltsov, K. Mursula and O. G.
Gladysheva, Latitudinal dependence of low cloud amount on cosmic ray
induced ionization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L16109,
doi:10.1029/2004GL019507), 2004.
* White, W. B., J. Lean, D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger,
Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar
irradiance, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255 ? 3266, 1997
* Yu, F., Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of
aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate, J. Geophy.
Res., 107(A7), 10.1029/2001JA000248, 2002.



###########################################################
Alvin E. Toda aet@xxxxxxxx
sr. engineer Phone: 1-808-455-1331
2-Sigma WEB: http://www.lava.net/~aet/2-sigma.html
1363-A Hoowali St.
Pearl City, Hawaii, USA 96782

Big deal. And before I retired my title was "Consulting Systems
Engineer". Sheesh. Now you're just being a pompous jerk, but I guess
we knew that didn't we?

When CERN decides to design a $20 million project based on your
research, as they have for Svensmark's "poor information", be sure to
let me know.

"CLOUD is an experiment that uses a cloud chamber to study the
possible link between galactic cosmic rays and cloud formation. Based
at the Proton Synchrotron at CERN, this is the first time a
high-energy physics accelerator has been used to study atmospheric and
climate science; the results could greatly modify our understanding of
clouds and climate.

Cosmic rays are charged particles that bombard the Earth's atmosphere
from outer space. Studies suggest they may have an influence on the
amount of cloud cover through the formation of new aerosols (tiny
particles suspended in the air that seed cloud droplets). This is
supported by satellite measurements, which show a possible correlation
between cosmic-ray intensity and the amount of low cloud cover. Clouds
exert a strong influence on the Earth?s energy balance; changes of
only a few per cent have an important effect on the climate.
Understanding the underlying microphysics in controlled laboratory
conditions is a key to unravelling the connection between cosmic rays
and clouds.

The CLOUD experiment involves an interdisciplinary team of scientists
from 18 institutes in 9 countries, comprised of atmospheric
physicists, solar physicists, and cosmic-ray and particle physicists.
The PS provides an artificial source of ?cosmic rays? that simulates
natural conditions as closely as possible. A beam of particles is sent
into a reaction chamber and its effects on aerosol production are
recorded and analysed.

The initial stage of the experiment uses a prototype detector, but the
full CLOUD experiment will include an advanced cloud chamber and a
reactor chamber, equipped with a wide range of external
instrumentation to monitor and analyse their contents. The temperature
and pressure conditions anywhere in the atmosphere can be re-created
within the chambers, and all experimental conditions can be controlled
and measured, including the ?cosmic ray? intensity and the contents of
the chambers."
http://public.web.cern.ch/PUBLIC/en/Research/CLOUD-en.html
.

Relevant Pages

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