Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"

On Tue, 2 Oct 2007 18:08:49 -0500, "John Galt"
<whoisjohngalt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


"Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Pine.BSI.4.64.0710021215460.4361@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Tue, 2 Oct 2007, John Galt wrote:


"Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj005@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:4702a9f8$0$32557$4c368faf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"John Galt" <whoisjohngalt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:13g46adrerp3220@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Alvin E. Toda" <aet@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Pine.BSI.4.64.0710011850460.20045@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Mon, 1 Oct 2007, John Galt wrote:


"Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj005@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:47018093$0$32526$4c368faf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Rumpelstiltskin" <PleaseDoNotReplyByEmail@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
message
news:94g2g39gepiqt7fn645696a4bse0p923mu@xxxxxxxxxx
On Mon, 1 Oct 2007 19:10:02 +0200 (CEST), Nomen Nescio
<nobody@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

No problem for conservatives, they never met an
ice bergy they didn't hate or a tree they did not
want to cut down.

*****





Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"



There's no point talking to the lime-encrusted old farts
in soc.retirement about global warming. They're going
to keep insisting there's no such thing. The only thing
that will stop them proclaiming their denial is when the
water rises above the level of their mouths.

I have posted this same set of questions a number of times now, and
I
am
still waiting for some answers....

What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect
be
the worse?

Too vague of a question. The "probable scenarios", as I see them,
vary
between a net increase of a couple to several inches of sea. Some
regions
get better weather from it, some worse. If you live in the Maldives,
you're
going to be looking to relocate to the mainland. Most other locations
will
be able to adapt.

How certain are the predictions of Global Warming (100% certainty,
90%,
50%)?

100% certain that it's happening. Significnatly less as to which
scenario
manifests itself.

When will it happen, and what will happen and how certain are these
predictions?

Over the next 100 years.

When will Global Warming reach its worst case scenario, and what is
that
worst case scenario? How certain are the predictions that the worst
case
scenario will happen? What are the other scenarios of what may
happen?
If you were to rank each scenario, what is the most likely scenario?

I couldn't say. Suffice to say that every time I read the Latest
Final
Report of What Will Happen, it's prediction is less catastrophic than
the
previous.

How big a reduction of greenhouses gases is required to avoid Global
Warming, how much of a yearly reduction is required, how soon do we
have
the reach the yearly goal, what happens if we are not able to reach
the
yearly goal, and can anyone guarantee that we can avoid Global
Warming,
regardless of what we do?

Almost all projections on how much GGs we'd have to cut to avoid
impact
are
impossible. You can't cut that much without tossing us out of the
Industrial
Age, from my read. The last UN report pretty much said that the
damage
is
already done, now we have to live with it.

Why concentrate on one of the greenhouse gases and not the other
greenhouse gases?

Not sure if that assumption is correct.

What is the maximum rise in sea levels can we expect? I would think
that
answer can be found in determining how much sea levels will rise
"if"
all
of the ice and snow melts.

See above. "All" is not going to melt.

Water on this earth is basically static, because none of it escapes
from earth. It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the
atmosphere. And eventually, it will be returned to its natural form,
which is water. So, what is evaporated, will eventually come back to
the ground in the form of rain or snow. Where will it come back to
earth? Won't the same amount of water that now returns to earth, be
the same, if global warming should occur? One study suggested that
the
maximum rise in sea levels would be 263 feet, which if that happens
would put a whole lot of land under water.

Most of the land, but I don't know of any responsible scientists who
believe anything close to that. I haven't seen anyone legit suggest
more than like 16 feet, and I think the consensus is more like 16
inches max,

Let us for the sake of discussion say that the scientist are right
and
that if we do not do something to reduce the levels of Carbon
Dioxide,
global warming will happen. It would just seem to me, then the next
question is how can we guarantee that the event will not happen, or
can anyone make such a guarantee.

No.

What exactly, do we have to do, how fast do we have to do it, would
be the next series of questions I would think needs to be answered.
Have those scientist who are predicting such an event, know the
answers to those questions? If they have the answer, what is the
answer? Is there a consensus of what exactly has to be done? If
there is no consensus, what should we do, and why is there no
consensus?

Climatologists have consensus. Meteorologists, atmospheric scentists,
astronomers, geologists......have different scientific perspectives,
and they see the matter differently.

JG

Good answers. Thanx for doing the research...

Jerry didn't ask "what's the most disturbing thing you've seen in the
possible to likely scenarios" but I'll answer it anyway -- it's the
possibility that the Gulf Stream loses it's effectiveness as a warming
agent for the British Isles. Taking the isles down 10 degrees C or so
in winter would be, well, not nice.

Isn't that the direct opposite of the global warming scenario, i.e. the
cooling of the Gulf Stream, which I gather some scientist believe is
happening, would cause global cooling?

The climatologists draw the distinction between "climate" and "weather."
Time will tell precisely how that distinction plays out. At any rate, the
Gulf Stream issue would be a localized coolling effect tied to the
overall warming phenomena.

JG

I guess some models might show a bigger rise in the water temperatures of
the Gulf if the Gulf Stream were slowed or stopped. But it seems to me
that it might be related to the Coriolis effect-- ie due to the rotation
of the Earth. There's a similar rotation that occurs in the Pacific Ocean.
So it's not likely that the Stream will end or lessen.

I should hope not, that that particular prediction is one of more of the
"hysterical" ones that is less sound.

However, it must be noted that this is the substance of the controversy ---
where the climatologists predict X because of Greenh Gases, whilst the
astronomers say that X is expected due to planetary or solar variances.

Anyway, with a bigger rise in temperature, the Gulf will develop
horrendous hurricanes. I think that's a big fear for the future-- and for
Hawaii too. Hurricanes mostly peter out before they reach the middle of
the Pacific. But perhaps a stronger hurricane system would more likely be
able to endure and not be the common rain storms that hit the islands
during huricane season.

Well, let me say this in this fashion:

I live on the Gulf Coast. I love the Caymans, the Bahamas, and several other
island nations. I am interested in retiring offshore, and money is not a
major factor in what I decide.

The Caribbean is not under consideration. I don't want that potential
nightmare as part of my retirement scenario, with or without any increase
caused by GW.

If you've ever been through a hurricane, you'll understand when I tell you
that when compared to retiring to the Caribbean, Oklahoma City looks pretty
good.

JG



If the earth didn't rotate, the only winds on the surface
of the earth would cold air moving from the poles to the
equator. Warm air would flow from the equator to the
poles above the cold air, because warm air is lighter.
Since the earth rotates, though, that complicates the
situation with the "Coriolis effect". The surface of the
earth moves faster at the equator than it does at the
poles, just as a spinning billiard ball moves faster at
it's "equator" than at its "poles". Therefore any air
that's pretty much at rest at the equator is actually
moving at 22,000 miles per day in order to keep
stationary with respect to the ground at the equator
which is moving at 22,000 miles per day. At an
altitude of 45 degrees, though, the ground is only
moving at 22,000 x cos(45) = about 15,500 miles per
day. Therefore, if air moved unimpeded from the
equator to 45 degrees latitude it would have to travel
at 22,,000 - 15,500 = 6,500 miles per day east to
west with respect to the ground at that latitude just
to keep the same angular momentum it had at the
equator. Obviously, mountains and other air
masses in the way aren't going to let things come
to that pass, so we have the turbulence that creates
storms to absorb most of the angular momentum.
What's manageable of the sideways motion left
over is called the "trade winds". The earth is big
enough that things still would get out of hand, but
when the residual sideways angular momentum
gets dominant, which happens at a few latitudes
in sequence as one travels north, the air moving
northward sinks as it cools to make way for the
warmer air just arriving from the south, and heads
back southward close to the ground, with the
Coriolis effect working in the opposite direction
on the way back down. There are several bands
of such cycles if air on the earth instead of just
one band from pole to equator, as is shown in
the diagram in the yellowish box at:

http://tinyurl.com/2mm7pj

Jupiter, because of its size, has about a
dozen zones of such cycles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_pattern_on_Jupiter

Saturn, because it rotates very fast, I suppose
has even more.



--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... worst case scenario? ... from earth. ... Warm air would flow from the equator to the ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Bush Turns And Slaps Down Global Warming Deniers
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be the worse? ... When will Global Warming reach its worst case scenario, and what is that worst case scenario? ... Water on this earth is basically static, because none of it escapes from earth. ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Re: Avoiding the Leap Second
    ... attention with climate imbalances such as global warming,not a single ... one of them can explain how the motions of the Earth provide the ... Global warming is caused by too much carbon dioxide in the air, ...
    (sci.astro.amateur)
  • Re: Its too late now for global warming repair...
    ... because of human-produced "greenhouse gases" in the air? ... And if it is over for the earth, what do all the global warming adherents think? ... Are they preparing for a move to another, ...
    (alt.politics.bush)
  • Re: US objection to G8 climate leaked
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be ... How certain are the predictions of Global Warming (100% certainty, 90%, ... When will Global Warming reach its worst case scenario, ... Since the Earth has gone through many periods of warming ...
    (soc.retirement)
Loading