Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"


"Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj005@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:4702879e$0$18929$4c368faf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"John Galt" <whoisjohngalt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:13g3198tmhbkn7a@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj005@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:47018093$0$32526$4c368faf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Rumpelstiltskin" <PleaseDoNotReplyByEmail@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:94g2g39gepiqt7fn645696a4bse0p923mu@xxxxxxxxxx
On Mon, 1 Oct 2007 19:10:02 +0200 (CEST), Nomen Nescio
<nobody@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

No problem for conservatives, they never met an
ice bergy they didn't hate or a tree they did not
want to cut down.

*****





Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"



There's no point talking to the lime-encrusted old farts
in soc.retirement about global warming. They're going
to keep insisting there's no such thing. The only thing
that will stop them proclaiming their denial is when the
water rises above the level of their mouths.

I have posted this same set of questions a number of times now, and I am
still waiting for some answers....

What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be
the worse?

Too vague of a question. The "probable scenarios", as I see them, vary
between a net increase of a couple to several inches of sea. Some regions
get better weather from it, some worse. If you live in the Maldives,
you're going to be looking to relocate to the mainland. Most other
locations will be able to adapt.


To "vague"? You either know what the net increase is or you do not. The
scientist who believe in the theory either know what the net increase will
be or they do not....

OK. The range is from an inch to 16 feet on average, more or less.

Hope that helps. :-)

How certain are the predictions of Global Warming (100% certainty, 90%,
50%)?

100% certain that it's happening. Significnatly less as to which scenario
manifests itself.

When will it happen, and what will happen and how certain are these
predictions?

Over the next 100 years.

What is the certainty that it will happen in the next 100 years?

According to the climatologists, 100%, subject to the above range of
possibilities.


When will Global Warming reach its worst case scenario, and what is that
worst case scenario? How certain are the predictions that the worst
case scenario will happen? What are the other scenarios of what may
happen? If you were to rank each scenario, what is the most likely
scenario?

I couldn't say. Suffice to say that every time I read the Latest Final
Report of What Will Happen, it's prediction is less catastrophic than the
previous.

How big a reduction of greenhouses gases is required to avoid Global
Warming, how much of a yearly reduction is required, how soon do we have
the reach the yearly goal, what happens if we are not able to reach the
yearly goal, and can anyone guarantee that we can avoid Global Warming,
regardless of what we do?

Almost all projections on how much GGs we'd have to cut to avoid impact
are impossible. You can't cut that much without tossing us out of the
Industrial Age, from my read. The last UN report pretty much said that
the damage is already done, now we have to live with it.

If the damage is already done, then anything we do from now on, is not
going to prevent the event from happening?

This was heavily implied by the UN study that came out earlier this year.

Why concentrate on one of the greenhouse gases and not the other
greenhouse gases?

Not sure if that assumption is correct.

what are you not sure of, that we should concentrate on the reduction of
one of the greenhouse gases?

The assumption that anyone is *not* concentrating on only one GG.

What is the maximum rise in sea levels can we expect? I would think
that answer can be found in determining how much sea levels will rise
"if" all of the ice and snow melts.

See above. "All" is not going to melt.

So, how much of a rise should we expect?

See above.


Water on this earth is basically static, because none of it escapes from
earth. It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the
atmosphere. And eventually, it will be returned to its natural form,
which is water. So, what is evaporated, will eventually come back to the
ground in the form of rain or snow. Where will it come back to earth?
Won't the same amount of water that now returns to earth, be the same,
if global warming should occur? One study suggested that the maximum
rise in sea levels would be 263 feet, which if that happens would put a
whole lot of land under water.

Most of the land, but I don't know of any responsible scientists who
believe anything close to that. I haven't seen anyone legit suggest more
than like 16 feet, and I think the consensus is more like 16 inches max,

Then it is just a "guess" on their part?

Science always starts out with a "guess", A.K.A a theory. At this point,
everything is theoretical.


Let us for the sake of discussion say that the scientist are right and
that if we do not do something to reduce the levels of Carbon Dioxide,
global warming will happen. It would just seem to me, then the next
question is how can we guarantee that the event will not happen, or can
anyone make such a guarantee.

No.

"if" you cannot make any such guarantee, then would it be safe to say, it
may already be too late, and that anything we do now is creating pain when
nothing will prevent the event from happening?

Possibly.

What exactly, do we have to do, how fast do we have to do it, would be
the next series of questions I would think needs to be answered. Have
those scientist who are predicting such an event, know the answers to
those questions? If they have the answer, what is the answer? Is there
a consensus of what exactly has to be done? If there is no consensus,
what should we do, and why is there no consensus?

Climatologists have consensus. Meteorologists, atmospheric scentists,
astronomers, geologists......have different scientific perspectives, and
they see the matter differently.

In other words, they want us to do "something...anything" to prevent an
event from happening, they just don't know exactly what we should do?

It would be good to stop pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Everyone agrees on
that. What they disagree on is what effect stopping will have.

JG




.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be ... scenario will happen? ... It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the atmosphere. ... I haven't seen anyone legit suggest more than like 16 feet, and I think the consensus is more like 16 inches max, ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be ... Significnatly less as to which scenario ... It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the atmosphere. ... I haven't seen anyone legit suggest more than like 16 feet, and I think the consensus is more like 16 inches max, ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, and when will the effect be ... Significnatly less as to which scenario ... It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the atmosphere. ... I haven't seen anyone legit suggest more than like 16 feet, and I think the consensus is more like 16 inches max, ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, ... When will Global Warming reach its worst case scenario, ... Water on this earth is basically static, ... and I think the consensus is more like 16 ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"
    ... What will be the effects of Global Warming, ... worst case scenario? ... It is either in the form of water, snow, ice, or in the ... you've seen in the possible to likely scenarios" but I'll answer it anyway -- it's the possibility that the Gulf Stream loses it's effectiveness as a warming agent for the British Isles. ...
    (soc.retirement)