Re: Snowball earth, when and why it happened.
- From: Jake <jcbepstein@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2007 10:30:21 -0700
On 1 juin, 10:57, El Castor <No_...@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Thu, 31 May 2007 23:58:12 -0700, Jake <jcbepst...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Actually I believe it is. It gives credibility to the CO2 hoax, where
none is due. Let me pose one question to you, Jake. Would you grant
that it is possible that Shaviv and Svensmark are correct? Please, no
evasion. Just a straight answer.
Here by the way are the opinons of other professionals which only
establishes
that the case for cosmic rays having an influence on the climate
(especially
recently) does not have a consensus at the time the paper you cited
appeared
http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/prrl0405.html
American Geophysical Union
NEWS
21 January 2004
AGU Release No. 04-05
Cosmic Rays Are Not the Cause of Climate Change, Scientists Say
WASHINGTON - Eleven Earth and space scientists say that a recent
paper attributing most climate change on Earth to cosmic rays is
incorrect and based on questionable methodology. Writing in the
January 27 issue of Eos, published by the American Geophysical Union,
Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
and colleagues in Canada, France, Germany, Switzerland, and the United
States challenge the cosmic ray hypothesis.
In July 2003, astrophysicist Nir Shaviv and geologist Jan Veizer wrote
in GSA Today that they had established a correlation between cosmic
rays and temperature evolution over hundreds of millions of years.
They also claimed that current global warming is not primarily caused
by human emissions of carbon dioxide. Their findings have been widely
reported in international news media.
According to Rahmstorf, Shaviv and Veizer's analyses--and especially
their conclusions--are scientifically ill-founded. The data on cosmic
rays and temperature so far in the past are extremely uncertain, he
says. Further, their reconstruction of ancient cosmic rays is based on
only 50 meteorites, and most other experts interpret their
significance in a very different way, he says. He adds that two curves
presented in the article show an apparent statistical correlation only
because the authors adjusted the data, in one case by 40 million
years. In short, say the authors of the Eos article, Shaviv and Veizer
have not shown that there is any correlation between cosmic rays and
climate.
As for the influence of carbon dioxide in climate change, many
climatologists were surprised by Shaviv and Veizer's claim that their
results disproved that current global warming was caused by human
emissions, Rahmstorf says. Even if their analysis were
methodologically correct, their work applied to time scales of several
million years.
The current climate warming has, however, occurred during just a
hundred years, for which completely different mechanisms are
relevant, he says. For example, over millions of years, the shifting
of continents influences climate, while over hundreds of thousands of
years, small changes in Earth's orbit can initiate or terminate ice
ages. But for time periods of years, decades, or centuries, these
processes are irrelevant. Volcanic eruptions, changes in solar
activity, and the concentration of greenhouse gases, as well as
internal oscillations of the climate system, are crucial on this
scale.
The 11 authors of the Eos article affirm that the strong increase of
carbon dioxide and some other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due
to manmade emissions is most probably the main cause of the global
warming of the last few decades. The most important physical processes
are well understood, they say, and model calculations as well as data
analyses both come to the conclusion that the human contribution to
the global warming of the 20th century was dominant.
**********
Notes for journalists:
Journalists (only) may obtain an advance pdf copy of this paper upon
request to Kara LeBeau: klebeau@xxxxxxxx
Please provide your name, name of publication, phone, and email
address. The paper and this press release are not under embargo.
Title: "Cosmic Rays, Carbon Dioxide, and Climate"
Citation: Rahmstorf, S. et al., Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and
climate, Eos, Trans. AGU, 85(4), 38, 41, 2004.
Contact information for the authors:
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany: rahmstorf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx or
+49-331-288-2688
David Archer, Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of
Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA: d-archer@xxxxxxxxxxxx or +1
773-702-0823
Denton S. Ebel, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, American
Museum of Natural History, New York, New York, USA: Contact through
Robin Lloyd, AMNH Communications Office: lloyd@xxxxxxxx or +1
212-496-3419
Otto Eugster, Department of Space Research and Planetology, Physics
Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland:
otto.eugster@xxxxxxxxxxxxx or +41 31-6314418
Jean Jouzel, Director, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute, University of
Versailles, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France:
jouzel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx +33 684759682
Douglas Maraun, Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam,
Germany: maraun@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx or +49 331-977-1364
Urs Neu, ProClim-, Swiss Forum for Climate and Global Change, Swiss
Academy of Sciences, Bern, Switzerland: neu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx +41
31-328-23-26
Gavin A. Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and
Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, New
York, USA: gschmidt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx or +1 212-678-5627
Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Geoscience Research Division, Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, USA:
jseveringhaus@xxxxxxxx or +1 858-822-2483
Andrew J. Weaver, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of
Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: weaver@xxxxxxx or +1
250-472-4001
Jim Zachos, Director, Center for the study of the Dynamics and
Evolution of the Land-Sea Interface, University of California, Santa
Cruz, California, USA: jzachos@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx or +1 831-459-4644
.
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