Re: does karl rove have a plan? Re: Lead Up To November ...
- From: Islander <nospam@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 04 Sep 2006 11:38:05 -0700
arthur wouk wrote:
he very often rattles sabres when an election is coming along. did it
before. look at this;
"Lebanese Security" Is the Pretext for the Naval Babel around Lebanon's
Shores
DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Report
September 4, 2006, 11:37 AM (GMT+02:00)
[spacer.gif]
The extraordinary buildup of European naval and military strength in and
around Lebanon's shores is way out of proportion for the task the European
contingents of expanded UNIFIL have undertaken: to create a buffer between
Israel and Hizballah.
Close investigation by DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources
discloses that "Lebanese security" and peacemaking is not the object of the
exercise. It is linked to the general anticipation of a military clash
between the United States and Israel, on one side, and Iran and possibly
Syria on the other, some time from now until November
This expectation has brought together the greatest sea and air armada Europe
has ever assembled at any point on earth since World War II: two carriers
with 75 fighter-bombers, spy planes and helicopters on their decks; 15
warships of various types - 7 French, 5 Italian, 2-3 Green, 3-5 German, and
five American; thousands of Marines - French, Italian and German, as well as
1,800 US Marines.
It is improbably billed as support for a mere 7,000 European soldiers who
are deployed in Lebanon to prevent the dwindling Israeli force of 4-5,000
soldiers and some 15-16,000 Hizballah militiamen from coming to blows as
well as for humanitarian odd jobs.
A Western military expert remarked to DEBKAfile that the European naval
forces cruising off Lebanese shores are roughly ten times as much as the
UNIFIL contingents require as cover, especially when UNIFIL's duties are
strictly non-combat. After all, none of the UN contingents will be engaged
in disarming Hizballah or blocking the flow of weapons incoming from Syria
and Iran.
So, if not for Lebanon, what is this fine array of naval power really there
for?
First, according to our military sources, the European participants feel the
need of a strong naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean to prevent a
possible Iranian-US-Israeli war igniting an Iranian long-range Shahab
missile attack on Europe; second, as a deterrent to dissuade Syria and
Hizballah from opening a second front against American and Israel from their
eastern Mediterranean coasts.
Numbers alone do not do justice to the immense operational capabilities and
firepower amassed opposite Lebanon. Take first the three fleet flagships.
From France's nuclear-powered 38,000-ton Charles De Gaulle carrier (see
insignia), 40 Rafale M fighter craft whose range is 3,340 km can take off at
intervals of 30 seconds. The ship also carries three E-2C Hawkeye
surveillance craft. The combat control center of the French carrier can
handle 2,000 simultaneous targets. The carrier leads a task fore of 7
warships carrying 2,800 French Marines.
[Charles De Gaulle (R91).jpg]
Charles De Gaulle s also a floating logistics center operating water
desalination plants for 15,000 men and enough food to feed an army for 90
days.
The USS Mount Whitney (the tallest snowcapped peak in the United States),
has the most sophisticated command and control suite in the world. Like the
French Charles De Gaulle , it exercises command over a task force of 1,800
sailors, Marines, Air force medical and other personnel serving aboard the
USS Barry, the USS Trenton , HSV Swift and USNS Kanawha .
[USSMountWhitney.jpg] Available to the fleet commander, US Vice Admiral J.
"Boomer" Stufflebeem, formally titled commander of Joint Task Force Lebanon,
is the uniquely advanced C41 command and intelligence system through which
he can flash intelligence data to every American commander at any point
between the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf and Iran. USS Mount
Whitney communications are described as unsurpassed for the the secure
transmission of data from any point to any other point in the world through
HF, UHF,VHF, SHF and EHF.
The third carrier joining the other two is the Italian aircraft-helicopter
carrier Garibaldi , which has launch pads for vertical takeoff by 16 AV-8B
Harrier fighter-bombers or 18 Sikorsky SH-3D Seak King sea-choppers (or
Italian Agusta Bell AB212 helicopters), designed to attack submarines and
missile ships.
Military experts estimate that the Garibaldi currently carries 10 fighter
planes and 6 helicopters. [GaribaldiGiuseppeC 551.jpg]
The new European naval concentration tops up the forces which permanently
crowd the eastern Mediterranean: the Italian-based American Sixth Fleet,
some 15 small Israeli missile ships and half a dozen submarines and the NATO
fleet of Canadian, British, Dutch, German, Spanish, Greek and Turkish
warships. They are on patrol against al Qaeda (which is estimated to deploy
45 small freighters in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean). The British have
permanent air and sea bases in Cyprus.
This vast force's main weakness, according to DEBKAfile's military sources,
is that it lacks a single unified command. A sudden flare-up in Lebanon,
Syria or Iran could throw the entire force into confusion.
On paper, it has three commanders:
1. French General Alain Pellegrini is the commander of the expanded UNIFIL
ground, naval and air force in Lebanon. In February 2007, he hands over to
an Italian general who leads the largest of the European contingents of
3,000 men. It is hard to see France agreeing to place its prestigious
Charles De Gaulle flagship under non-French command.
2. The American forces opposite Lebanese shores are under direct US command.
Since the October 1993 debacle of an American peace force under the UN flag
in Somalia, Washington has never again placed its military under UN command.
(There is no American contingent in the UNIFIL ground force either.)
In other words, USS Mount Whitney , while serving the European fleets as
their operational and intelligence nerve center will stay under the sole
command of Vice Admiral Stufflebeem in all possible contingencies.
3. Similarly, the NATO fleet will remain under NATO command, and Israel's
air and naval units will take their orders from Israeli Navy Headquarters in
Haifa and the General Staff in Tel Aviv.
The naval Babel piling up in the eastern Mediterranean may therefore find
itself at cross purposes when action is needed in an armed conflict. Iran,
Syria and Hizballah could be counting on this weakness as a tactical asset
in their favor.
_______________________________________________________________________
Copyright 2000-2006 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.
With this much firepower in what is already a tinder box, one can reasonably expect an incident. The governments in the region may not do this intentionally, but one can reasonably expect the terrorists to attempt something to bait the tiger.
.
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