Re: Global Warming

Islander <nospam@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:4pmdnXsKjZMxYunZnZ2dnUVZ_vydnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

Earl wrote:

Islander <nospam@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:2Kqdnar7XdvbcunZRVn-qA@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx:


Jerry Okamura wrote:

"Islander" <nospam@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message


Isn't it true that while volcanic activity may be
declining at the present time, no one knows it will
continue to decline in the future?



You are grasping at straws here. The earth is cooling, so
while there may be temporary increases in localized
volcanic activity, the overall trend is down. There is no
evidence to suggest otherwise.




Interesting question there.
Over the last 4 billion years:
The sun has increased by about 30% (most of surface temp
which provides base for heat loss to space and regulates
heat transfer from core and mantle)

The internal radioactive decay has dropped 50% (half life
of U238) (dictates core temp)

Lunar tidal friction has dropped about 25% (provides energy
for lithospheric heating and vulcanism- increase in lunar
month)

There may may been some overall lost of magma level energy
but not much. The higher surface temperature provided by
the expanding output of the Sun could restrict internal
losses, and might actually increase internal temps - it is
a rather complicated differential equation)

And during the lifetime of H.sap the change is negligable.


Is someone arguing that these are the factors that are
producing global warming? If they are contributors, doesn't
that make the problem worse and increase the urgency of
changing the one thing that we can control, namely the
production of greenhouse gases?


But can we actually control the Greenhouse gasses.

We have a problem in identifying the culprit.

Is it the sun (there are several planets and moons that have GW
today)

Is it the H2o in the atmosphere - water is after all more
powerful than CO2, it acts in both positive and negative
feedback loops and we have no idea if it is cooling the Earth or
heating it. Since 99% of the effect is from water in adsorption
(and all in reflectance from some clouds) and an unknown amount
of adsorbtion from others we are being very arogant in saying
that a second rate greenhouse gas is the culprit.

We do not have a feel for what the actions of H2O are.

But we can put forth an easy explanation of how we can have
warming and CO2 increase without having CO2 be the cause, just a
correlating item. The additional input by man is just a
coincidence -- and not even a very good one. Of the heating that
occured since 1850, the majority occured before 1940 and thus is
not related to our consumption levels. We have had these
temperatures before (the Viking wheat fields are still frozen
indicating that we have a ways to go to reach temps of 11th
century.)


(Sun heats up surface causing permafrost bio decay and CO2
content in sea water to decrease {hense the CO2 rise} -- but the
controling mechanism of the heating and eventual negative
feedback is still from water and would contine to be so until
complete cloud cover)


One of the biggest flays in human perception is our tendency to
create shapes and trends from spotty data. Helped in getting
panic reaction to possible leapard in the bushes; but definitely
hurts when researchers fudge the data processing to get trend
lines that show GW in real data as well as random numbers.
We are just seeing a correlation and reach the conclusion that B
causes A when all we know is that A B AND C exist together. (ie
C causes A which in turn causes B)
.

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