Re: The Singularity Is Near

On Tue, 04 Oct 2005 09:39:06 -0700, El Castor
<justuschickens@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Justine <wherethereis@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>>On Mon, 03 Oct 2005 14:37:12 -0700, El Castor
>><justuschickens@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>>>Tom Abate, Chronicle Staff Writer
>>>
>>>Monday, October 3, 2005
>>>
>>>Inventor Ray Kurzweil's new book, "The Singularity Is Near," predicts
>>>the fusion of humans and machines to create powerful and potentially
>>>immortal life forms.
>>>
>>>In his book, "Enough," environmentalist Bill McKibben says that unless
>>>we forgo such technological fixes, and accept death, we will
>>>ultimately cease to be human.
>>>
>>>Between these extremes rages a debate about the role that technology
>>>will -- or should -- play in shaping the future.
>>>
>>>Recently the initiative has been with Kurzweil, who predicts that
>>>"within the next several decades" new beings will arise that blend
>>>human and machine traits, "a destiny we have come to refer to as the
>>>Singularity."
>>>
>>>As part of a book promotion tour, Kurzweil spoke to about 400 people
>>>at San Francisco's Herbst Theater Sept. 23. The event was organized by
>>>Stewart Brand, a 67-year-old Bay Area visionary who was a leading
>>>force in the pioneering online community the Well.
>>>
>>>At age 57, Kurzweil is a tech-industry legend whose accomplishments
>>>include inventing the first device to scan text and render it into
>>>sound to enable the blind to "read." He has also written a series of
>>>books on artificial intelligence, beginning with "The Age of
>>>Intelligent Machines" in 1990, a precursor to "The Singularity."
>>>
>>>"If anything the future will be more wonderful than anything we can
>>>imagine today," Kurzweil said in trying to get across the gist of his
>>>652-page tome.
>>>
>>>"The Singularity" argues that technology is a continuation of the
>>>life-improvement process commonly called evolution. DNA created
>>>biological life forms. Biological life forms advanced over eons and
>>>developed Homo sapiens. Their big brains and opposing thumbs and
>>>forefingers made them adept toolmakers. Today their cutting-edge tools
>>>-- computers, software, gene-splicing techniques and nanotechnology --
>>>are poised for integration with human biological systems to evolve a
>>>hybrid life form.
>>>
>>>Accelerating returns
>>>
>>>Far from being some distant science-fiction dream, these
>>>bio-mechanical beings will evolve sooner rather than later, Kurzweil
>>>argues, based on another of his key ideas which he calls the law of
>>>accelerating returns.
>>>
>>>In essence, Kurzweil says progress occurs at an exponential rate. At
>>>first, things take forever. Eons elapsed between the primordial soup
>>>and Homo sapiens. It took thousands of years for the hunter-gatherers
>>>to get their hands on the computer mouse. But once that happened,
>>>things started to get interesting, and quickly.
>>>
>>>Now gadgets like cell phones get smaller, faster and cheaper thanks to
>>>Moore's Law, which says microprocessor power doubles every 18 months
>>>or so. Kurzweil's law of accelerating returns posits that this same
>>>exponential pace governs efforts to splice DNA, unravel genomes,
>>>reverse-engineer the brain and develop nanotech machines.
>>>
>>I hope they stop being enamored with the miniturazation of some of
>>this stuff. I have to get a flashlight and a magnifying glass out to
>>read the buttons on both our DVD player and most of our electronic
>>equipment in the house. My cell phone is a struggle, but I use it very
>>little. If I had a blackberry, the keys would be too small. The worst
>>is when the letters are embedded on black. It gives me satisfaction to
>>think that some day these whiz kid designers are going to have the
>>same problems seeing and keying these devices.
>
>One aspect of miniaturization involves sticking functionality into
>things that never had it before -- like cameras, gps, blue tooth, and
>mp3 players in phones. We are not too far from the day when cars will
>have blue tooth enabled touch screen computer displays in the dash
>that will display gps maps and your phone book, play music through the
>stereo, and warn when you are approaching a traffic camera. The Prius
>will do some of that right now. As soon as that gets done, it will be
>something else.
>
Nice, but I still want the basics - being able to read the controls'
names.

>>>Given all these developments, converging at exponential rates,
>>>Kurzweil considers it inevitable that our own technological creations
>>>will infuse new capabilities into human biological systems that have
>>>been resting on their evolutionary laurels for the last 100,000 years
>>>or so.
>>>
>>>"We will combine the subtle capabilities of human intelligence, which
>>>is basically pattern recognition," he said in San Francisco, "with the
>>>things that a thousand-dollar computer can already do better than us."
>>>
>>>Technological implants will improve our bodies, he said, citing a
>>>research paper that theorizes how nanotechnologists might build
>>>respirocytes -- artificial red blood cells that can carry 236 times
>>>more oxygen than the natural alternative. "We will not just have
>>>designer babies," he quipped, "but designer Baby Boomers."
>>
>>There was an article in our hometown newspaper this morning talking
>>about using miniature nanotubes of carbon inserts into bone to fix
>>broken bones.
>>>
>>>Kurzweil believes post-Singularity humans will cheat death. He writes:
>>>"When our human hardware crashes ... software-based humans ... will
>>>live out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want
>>>them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality."
>>>
>>>Kurzweil admits the potential perils of a cyborgian future. He cites
>>>the 2000 essay, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," in which
>>>software-guru-turned-venture-capitalist Bill Joy argued that, "We are
>>>being propelled into this new century with no plan, no control, no
>>>brakes."
>>>More .....
>>>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/03/BUG8QF0OO81.DTL&hw=singularity&sn=001&sc=1000
>>>
>>>"Arguing on UseNet is like competing in the Special
>>>Olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."
>
>
>"Arguing on UseNet is like competing in the Special
>Olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."

.

Loading