Re: Bill Bennett is gambling that no one is listening :)
- From: "Peter Vos" <pvos58@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 4 Oct 2005 07:31:39 -0700
Justine wrote:
> On 1 Oct 2005 08:08:07 -0700, "Peter Vos" <pvos58@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >
> >El Castor wrote:
> >> "Peter Vos" <
> >
> >> >The author of Freakonomics, in response to Bennett's comments, issued
> >> >the following statement:
> >> >
> >> >"Race is not an important part of the abortion-crime argument that John
> >> >Donohue and I have made in academic papers and that Dubner and I
> >> >discuss in Freakonomics. It is true that, on average, crime involvement
> >> >in the U.S. is higher among blacks than whites. Importantly, however,
> >> >once you control for income, the likelihood of growing up in a
> >> >female-headed household, having a teenage mother, and how urban the
> >> >environment is, the importance of race disappears for all crimes except
> >> >homicide. (The homicide gap is partly explained by crack markets). In
> >> >other words, for most crimes a white person and a black person who grow
> >> >up next door to each other with similar incomes and the same family
> >> >structure would be predicted to have the same crime involvement."
> >>
> >> There is little or no direct connection between race and crime --
> >> however there is an indirect connection. Herrnstein and Murray pointed
> >> out that without regard to race, males who fall on the left side of
> >> the IQ bell curve are ten times more likely to have served time in
> >> jail or prison than males who fall on the right side of the curve.
> >
> >Drawing a transitive causal connection between incarcerated, dumb and
> >black is well.... dumb.
> >
> >> Black males commit murder at eight times the rate of whites.
> >
> >As the author of Freakonomics pointed out... and CDC stats show ....
> >the rate of homicide among blacks is higher in young male populations
> >where drugs are involved. The higher rate of homicide is almost
> >totally attributable to drug dealings. If you look at things
> >geographically, it is clear that Southern Whites commit murder much
> >more often than Northern Whites... should we advocate abortions for
> >Southern Whites?
> >
> >> There are
> >> currently roughly five million American males who have served time in
> >> federal or state prisons. Of those 1.9 million, or just under 40% are
> >> Black. So despite all your wishing and theorizing, Bennett was exactly
> >> correct. Of course he still should have kept his mouth shut.
> >
> >The causal connection you are inferring is not supported by the
> >evidence. White kids caught with drugs don't go to prison nearly as
> >often as black kids. The bias is seen all through the system, up to and
> >including capital punishment. Find me a case where a white man was
> >executed for raping a black woman. There are dozens of examples, just
> >in Virginia, of black men being executed for raping white women.
> >
> >>
> >> "Arguing on UseNet is like competing in the Special
> >> Olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."
>
> Please give a reason, Peter, for why, after 30 years of affirmative
> action we still have an entrenchment of crime and poverty among
> blacks?
Excellent question. I think there are at least two mutually
reinforcing factors. The short answer to your question is that I
believe the breakdown of the family along with the breakdown of
extended social networks in an economically depressed community
compounds all of the problems associated with crime and poverty.
I believe the breakdown of the black family has been exacerbated by a
positive feedback loop between teen pregnancy and relatively higher
rates of incarceration. Here is how I break out these two factors.
They are not the only ones that are relevant, but I think they are
major contributors.
1) higher rates of incarceration for blacks vs whites for same crimes.
This has always been true, but began to disappear with the removal of
the more blatantly racist laws and procedures. However, the "War on
Drugs" reversed that trend dramatically. Since the WoD started the
prison population has exploded. Taking these differential rates in
sentencing, plea bargaining, etc. and increase the base rate by an
order of magnitude easily drives up the population of black males in
prison.
Here is just a couple of examples of the differential rate: Whites
convicted of first time felony drug offenses avoid jail sentences about
1/3 of the time. Blacks in a similar position only 1/4 the time. More
extreme divergences are seen on death row. A study of 10 years of
sentencing from Philadelphia showed that blacks who kill whites got the
death penalty 21% of the time. Blacks who killed blacks only got the
death penalty 14% of the time. Whites who killed blacks got the death
penalty 3% of the time.
2) higher rates of illegitimate children for blacks vs whites
This has historically been true, but it has more than tripled in the
last 30 years, now reaching about 70%. In the same time the rise in
white children born to unwed mothers has also risen dramatically to
almost 20%. I am sure there are many reasons for this and I am not
familiar enough with the data to list the primary ones. However, the
consequences are well documented. Here is just one statistic: The odds
of a married couples with children living below the poverty level is
about 1 in 20. The odds of an unwed mother with children living below
the poverty level is about 1 in 3.
.
- References:
- Re: Bill Bennett is gambling that no one is listening :)
- From: Peter Vos
- Re: Bill Bennett is gambling that no one is listening :)
- From: Justine
- Re: Bill Bennett is gambling that no one is listening :)
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