Re: Study Blames Global Warming for Stronger Hurricanes

On 23 Sep 2005 10:27:25 -0700, "Peter Vos" <pvos58@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>maureen wrote:
>> On Thu, 22 Sep 2005 19:04:12 GMT, "Jerry Okamura"
>> <okamuraj005@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>>
>> >Funny, a couple of days ago, on one of the news channels I heard from
>> >another "expert" that no one can say with any degree of certainty that the
>> >recent events are due to global warming or not.
>>
>> Cite the study so we can check it out, Jerry.
>>
>
>I believe what he heard was someone saying they could not tie Katrina
>or Rita to GW. That is a fair statement. GW is a statistical model.
>Tying a specific instance to a statistical model is not legitimate.


Thank you, but I was aware of that. However, it seems it's becoming
more and more likely that the intensity of hurricanes are due to
global warming.
..

Dr. B Ekwurzel, a climate scientist of the UCS said earlier this
month:

"Scientific evidence suggests there is a link between global warming
and the power, not frequency, of hurricanes,"
-----------
Co-aurthor of the study in the article I introduced said:

" We can say with confidence that the trends in sea surface
temperatures and hurricane intensity are connected to climate change"

This particular team looked at the incidence of intense tropical
storms and this study according to the authors, " ... are the
strongest affirmation yet that Katrina-level hurricanes are becoming
more frequent in a warmer world."
---------------

" Rrecent peer-reviewed research from the MIT shows that a combined
measure of both the duration and intensity of hurricanes has doubled
over the last 30 years.

This trend corresponds to increases in average ocean surface
temperatures over the same period. Most of the strongest hurricanes on
record have occurred during the past 10 years, when ocean surface
temperatures reached record levels"

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2005/2005-09-22-09.asp


Peter Webster of Georgia Tech told LiveScience. "What we're saying is
that sea surface temperatures are rising, and the intensity of
hurricanes is associated with that. The warmer the sea surface
temperature, the more intense the hurricanes."


>That doesn't mean the model is invalid. Based on current models the
>NHC predicted 9 to 12 hurricanes this season. We have already had 9
>counting through Philippe. It also predicted they would be of stronger
>intensity. We have seen that also. No one predicted "the 18th storm
>would become the 9th hurricane and that would reach Cat 5"

Of course!

I was putting Jerry on the spot ! He never supports his statements
with evidence.

maureen

.

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