Bush Energy Department Hides Peak Oil Report
- From: James Chamblee <jim-chamblee@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 12:50:39 GMT
Where Is the Hirsch Report?
By Richard Heinberg, www.museletter.com
Over the past few months controversy has raged over the timing of
Peak Oil-the moment when global oil production will reach its
all-time maximum and begin its inevitable descent.
Oil optimists say the event won't occur for twenty years or more, and
that market forces will result in an imperceptible transition to
alternative forms of energy. "The Stone Age didn't end for lack of
stones," say the optimists, "and the Petroleum Age won't end because
we run out of oil"-but because we find something better and cheaper
with which to fuel our society.
Pessimists point out that global oil discoveries have been plummeting
for decades and that supply and demand are now closely matched (hence
the run-up in oil prices over the past few months); moreover, there
simply isn't an alternative energy source available that can take
oil's place in the near term. They say we may be at peak now, and
that the consequences will be staggering.
In short, oil pessimists spin out end-of-civilization scenarios while
optimists insist that there is nothing to worry about.
Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the
Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in
February this year by Science Applications International Corporation
(SAIC), and titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation and Risk Management," the report examines the likely
consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored
principally by Robert L. Hirsch (bio:
www.d-n-i.net/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm), and is as remarkable for its
subsequent reception as for its content.
The report's Executive Summary begins with the following paragraph:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached,
liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically,
and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political
costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both
the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they
must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
The report's authors were not asked to assess when the global peak is
likely to occur; however they do survey the range of forecasts from
optimists and pessimists alike, projecting a peak date anywhere from
2005 to 2037.
The Hirsch report examines three scenarios: one in which mitigation
efforts are not undertaken until global oil production peaks; a
second in which efforts commence ten years in advance of peak; and a
third in which efforts begin twenty years prior to the peak. Each
scenario assumes a "crash program rate of implementation." In the
first case, the study concludes that peak will leave the world with a
"significant liquid fuels deficit for more than two decades" that
"will almost certainly cause major economic upheaval"; even with a
ten-year lead time for mitigation efforts government intervention
will be required and the world will experience a ten-year fuel
shortfall. A crash program initiated twenty years ahead of the event
will offer "the possibility" of avoiding a fuel shortfall. The report
emphasizes repeatedly that both supply- and demand-side mitigation
options will take many years to implement and will cost "literally
trillions of dollars"; it also notes that "the world has never faced
a problem like this."
The Hirsch report concludes that substantial mitigation of the
economic, social, and political impacts of Peak Oil can come only
from efforts both to increase energy supplies from alternative
sources and to reduce demand for oil. With regard to the claim that
efficiency measures by themselves will be enough to forestall dire
impacts, Hirsch et al. note that, "While greater end-use efficiency
is essential, increased efficiency alone will be neither sufficient
nor timely enough to solve the problem. Production of large amounts
of substitute liquid fuels will be required." Further, "Mitigation
will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort,
because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely
large." Hirsch, et al., also point out that "The problems associated
with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past
'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance."
Oil optimists often say that efforts aimed at mitigating the effects
of Peak Oil undertaken too soon would entail a cost to society. The
SAIC Report agrees. However, it concludes that, "If peaking is
imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely
damaging. Prudent risk management requires the planning and
implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation
will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation."
Optimists also insist that the market can take care of the problem:
high oil prices will stimulate more exploration, the development of
more efficient cars, and the deployment of alternative energy
technologies. Interference with market mechanisms would be harmful,
they say, and so the government should steer clear of the problem by
avoiding setting higher efficiency standards, subsidizing renewables,
and so on.
The report's authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of
immediate scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order
to prepare for the global oil production peak must be undertaken many
years in advance of the event. Hirsch, et al., maintain that,
"Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic
and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
The experiences of the 1970s and 1980s offer important guides as to
government actions that are desirable and those that are undesirable,
but the process will not be easy."
Here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent
research company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global
problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and
political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors
forecast "protracted economic hardship" for the United States and the
rest of the world. It is a problem that deserves "immediate, serious
attention."
Yet, half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to
be found. For several months it was archived, in PDF format, on a
high school web site (www.hilltoplancers.org, Hilltop High School in
Chula Vista, Calif.). On July 7 the report disappeared from that
site. The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing
the Hirsch report; however there is no projected date of release.
When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public
report, paid for and released by DOE NETL, and that it therefore
could be reposted at will." Project
Censored is therefore posting the report in full at:
http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf
If the content of the Hirsch report is to be believed-and there is
every reason to think it should be-then this is a document that
deserves the close attention of every leader of government and
industry in the US. Newspapers and newsmagazines should be running
excerpts and summaries. Instead, there is nearly total silence. In
late May Robert Hirsch presented the substance of the report at the
annual Workshop of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
in Lisbon, Portugal to an audience of about 300
(www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Hirsch.pdf ). That
event received virtually no press coverage in the US.
Meanwhile oil is hovering around $60 and is likely to head higher,
and analysts look to the fourth quarter of 2005 unsure whether supply
will be able to keep up with burgeoning demand.
Richard Heinberg
<mailto:rheinberg@xxxxxxx>rheinberg@xxxxxxx
EarthLink Revolves Around You
Hirsch Report on Line at Project Censored:
http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf
--
Peter Phillips Ph.D.
Sociology Department/Project Censored
Sonoma State University
1801 East Cotati Ave.
Rohnert Park, CA 94928
707-664-2588
http://www.projectcensored.org/
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