An unlikely chain reaction

DNorth proves that he does not exist.

Proof:

"In order for me to exist, my parents had to meet, marry presumably and
conceive me. The probablity of this occurence could not have been 100%
even if their marriage had been arranged, there being the issue of
accidental death before my conception. BUT, for my parents to have
existed, two men and two women (my grandparents) would have had to met
and coneived my parents, again these two events were not 100% certain.
BUT for my grandparents to have existed, so too would have my 8
great-grand parents, again these events not having been apriori
gauranteed. After N previous generations 2^N people would have had to
meet to produce N-1 generation, with each of these 2^N events not
having been apriori gauranteed. To avoid defining a probabillity for
each necessary pairing for my existence, let a single value p be the
probability of a man a woman in my family tree having met and conceived
me. The probability of my birth, assuming independent probabilty (GROG
and LANA met in Northern Europe two thousand years ago while GORG and
LUNA meet in Africa ten thousand of years ago) would be given by
P(DNorfth exists)=p^N. As N increases from 1, 2,...,1000,... prior
generations, p tends to zero rapidly. I therefore do not exist. Poof.

Really, I don't exist. Let p=0.99 (99% that is) and N be a mere
1,000. Then to a few decimal places, P(DNorth exists) = 0.00004317,
and for N = 10,000, P = 2.248 EXP (-44)."

Maybe my [Alaniz] kids don't exist. My wife and I had to meet, marry
and conceive them after all...BUT WAIT...there are vMANY people living
in my generation, and the travel and interact FREQUENTLY...so maybe a
man meeting a woman, marrying her, and having children by her is
something that just happens...and maybe in a really big universe with
lots of stuff in it and with lots of history, life is just something
that happens.

We know that life lives in incredibly hostile places. We'ev exposed
bacteria to hard space and brought them without having harmed them.
Exo-bacteria maybe in our upper atmosphere. Complex organic molecules
are found everywhere in space. Extra solar planets are being found
every year, and soon with better telescopes we may find Earth-like
extra-solar planets. RNA is much more fault tolerant than previously
thought, making RNA-based evolution much more likely.... Research
scientific literature in peer-reviewed heavy science journals.

Alex Alaniz Ph.D.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Collaborative Ministry is the modern buzz word but is really a load of bun
    ... one that pays out X/2 with probability p/2. ... In my lottery-ticket example, one ticket is better both in ... that merits death in any civilized society. ... Disobedience to one's parents doesn't ...
    (uk.religion.christian)
  • On probability theory and the two children (or two coin) problems
    ... What is the Probability of a past event? ... of the ace of spades being in any given pile? ... A woman says "I have at least one son". ... The parents are in a different room, ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Bayes problem - error?
    ... >I use HC to mean Hetero Children, BC Brown Children, BP brown parents, ... >HP hetero parents, NHP non-heteroparents, XX ... The probability that one is brown-eyed and heterozygotic is 2p ... The probability that the parents are brown-eyed and the child is ...
    (sci.math)
  • Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
    ... The calculations under discussion seem to assume that the probability that a ... person is illegimate is independent of the probability that one or both ... parents were illegimate. ...
    (soc.genealogy.medieval)
  • Re: Dawkins makes painfully clear what creationists have said for
    ... Saying that one is and one isn't requires a monumental amount of hubris. ... And this is essentially what Dawkins is saying in Chapter 2, "The God ... "An even if God's existence is never proved or disproved with certainty ... Yet you don't know what hte probability is for any case, ...
    (talk.origins)