Re: For Men, Marriage is a Lose/Lose Prospect

In article <marek1-C451D8.14255109022008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
marek1@xxxxxxx says...
In article <MPG.22169f76f94c2d559897a1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Mark Borgerson <mborgerson@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

In article <MPG.22169b4416072cf29897a0@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
mborgerson@xxxxxxxxxxx says...
In article <marek1-49019D.18563508022008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
marek1@xxxxxxx says...
<<SNIP>>

Statistics lesson: The odds of something happening over a lifetime
doesn't change no matter how many times you engage in the event. If
you play blackjack for 1 hand or for a million, the odds STAY THE
SAME. There's a saying in Vegas: "Cards have no memory."

You must not be aware of the problems Las Vegas casinos have
had with card counters. The problem is that the odds of
the player winning DO NOT stay the same with each hand. They
can vary significantly from hand to hand based on the cards
from the deck that have already been played. The cards don't
have a memmory---but the players do! If you can keep track
of the cards played and adjust your bets without getting
caught, you can win money at BlackJack.

Not me, necessarily, but the saying was coined back before card
counting. It refers to losing streaks where someone may put in more
money hoping that the odds favor a winning hand to even out the odds.

If you're going to play blackjack like that, it should be for
entertainment value only!

I love the disclaimers at the end of the state lottery TV Ads
"Lottery games should not be considered an investment and should
be played for entertainment value only"

Oh, and yes, I am aware of the problems Las Vegas casinos have with card
counters. That's why they use multiple decks to mitigate this factor.
I used to work for one of the first card counters, Jeff Yass, who used
the money he won in Vegas to start a trading company in Philadephia.
Your use of the wording "must" is therefore mistaken but then again, you
do have a point that blackjack is a poor example for this statistical
law.

I agree that "Must" was the wrong wording. It should have been
"You don't demonstrate any awareness of the problems..."

You should have picked the Roulette wheel for your example. In that
case the odds of a particular number stay the same from spin to
spin.

Yes, but that game doesn't involve cards hence wouldn't apply to the
saying. Nonetheless, quibbling over the example I used does not change
the statistical law I cited.

OK, you can quit quibbling over my responses to your examples at
any time.

I'm admittantly sloppy about details and
look to bigger ideas unlike some people who are good at sweating the
small stuff to defend their personal beliefs. Some people's minds work
the other way around and you may be one of them. That may be why you
drew the wrong conclusion about what I "must" be thinking.

I prefer to get the details right when those details are part of
rigorously proven scientific or mathematical knowledge. Beliefs
that don't require detailed support are a lot like faith. You
can say anything you want without the requirement to provide
detailed evidence or data.

I'm reminded of Galileo's conclusion about a heliocentric solar system
versus a geocentric one. It turns out that he was right but had errors
in his scientific proof and was rejected by the academic consensus of
the day. No nobel prize for him! :-) (Of course, there were no nobel
prizes in those days if you feel urged to point that out.) :-)

I guess that example shows that people who don't get the details
right are not likely to convince others to believe in them. That is
exactly my point about the original web site.

BTW, A lot of scientists have their ideas rejected when the first
publish because the tools they used to collect their supporting data
weren't sensitive enough. That happened as recently as the 1920's
when many geologists rejected Wegener's theory of continental drift.
The theory was gradually accepted, and now we have instruments sensitive
enough to actually measure the relative movement of continental plates.

Mark Borgerson

.

Relevant Pages

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