Re: The wisdom of Einstein


MCP wrote:
http://eternalbachelor.blogspot.com/2006/08/wisdom-of-einstein.html
...

I want to use a post to mathematically illustrate the death of the West. Here
goes:

Take 200 adults (or 200 million adults) and put them on an island.

100 males, 100 females.

They have a birthrate of 1.0 children per female.

There are 100 babies, 50 male, 50 female

This smaller second generation, does just like their parents did, and have 1.0
children per female.

There are 50 babies (for 200 grandparents now). Lets say this third generation
pulls the same neat trick of 1.0 children per female.

.....There are now 25 great-grandchildren for 200 great grandparents (who are
of course starting to die off by now).

This math works in the millions. The above scenario would occur in 80-100
years.

Nicely put.

The Total Fertility Rate in the EU has nearly halved, from 2.59 births
per woman in 1960 (above the replacement rate) to 1.48 in 2003 (well
below the replacement rate).
www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/poptrd0305.pdf

The effect is being masked by longevity improvements and immigration,
and so far most people haven't really noticed.

Even at 1.48 (assuming the TFR stays constant and doesn't fall further)
the number of people aged 0-20 falls by 78% over 10 generations. We are
in very serious danger of 'equalising' our society out of existence.

---
Rob
"Care about your fellow man: support paternal certainty and equalised
physical child custody."

.

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