Re: Vancouver Housing Bubble (not that there is one...)

In article <D_ednSq3LNdTAiTZnZ2dnUVZ_t6dnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"pandora" <pandora@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

"PolishKnight" <marek1@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:marek1-5EAFF4.21064015072006@xxxxxxx
In article <CpWdncywB8tiHiTZnZ2dnUVZ_u6dnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"pandora" <pandora@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

"Heidi Graw" <heidigraw@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Kwcug.187215$iF6.166650@xxxxxxxxxxx

"PolishKnight" <marek1@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:marek1-34C093.16060215072006@xxxxxxx
(snip)

Mark asks:
What happened to all the Hong Kong millionaires? :-)

They're still around, too. And they're also still thinking paying
$500,000
for a small bungalow in Vancouver is a better deal than paying
$2,000,000
for a one-room cubicle in Hong Kong. ;-)

I would imagine they can afford a lot more than that and on top of
everything else, they get a lovely city to live in; very cosmopolitan,
clean, and breathtaking. My brother lives in North Van and he's hoping
to
sell his house for a couple of million in a few years. I think he'll do
just fine.

Unless the market tops out.

It won't, not by then. Winter Olympics 2010, dear. Maybe after that house
prices will drop in Vancouver, but not until after that.

This doesn't make a lot of sense. Why should the winter
olympics necessarily improve housing prices (other than
perhaps certain lots going up in price as teardowns to
put up hotels, olympic villages, etc.?)

Are the athletes going to buy a house just to live there
for a few months? :-)

2010 is 4 years away. The prices in the area are already
2 times rents (or more). Heidi's buddies can barely
afford the prices today much less another 4 years of
10% per year increases.

Once a speculation market stops going up, it's like
a baseball tossed in the air and that other direction
is... you know. Why do I say speculation? Speculation
is quite simply a purchase that's justified based upon
the presumption of future market returns rather than
underlying metrics. If people are propping up
the market because they're either frightened
of getting priced out in the future OR buying
to make a killing later, they're speculators
whatever emotional rationalizations they make otherwise.

It won't matter if every Hong Kong millionaire
is in town to visit for the Olympics. If they can
rent a luxury unit for 1/2 or less of the cost of
buying, they won't at that point. The rich didn't
get that way paying for your brother's retirement
fof the fun of it. They're just as likely as anyone
to wait a slowed or dropping market out (perhaps
moreso since they should be smarter.)

In NoVA, inventory has increased by 400% in the last year while
sales declined by 37%. People are still buying (because
they think that they're getting a good deal) but not as
many as during the heydays when "buy now before you're
priced out" was the rule.

My father and mother bought their house for $7000 in 1950. He sold it for
$300,000 in 1986.

1986 was the year that the real estate market topped out
in many areas for the decade. But even so, that's a good
trade. A lot of it has to do with location of course.
A plot of farmland that sold for pennies could be worth
thousands later. Or not.

There are stocks that perform like this too. You could
buy a share of IBM stock in 1985 for 10 bucks and
sell it 15 years later for 150. What's your point?

A house just up the street from where his was is listed
at $1,000,000 today.

Did he sell it yet? :-)

In NoVA, such listings have also flooded the market but
they aren't moving.

I don't see a DROP anywhere in sight for a while at
least. And even if there is, what's it to you? You aren't even interested
in buying a house let alone one in Vancouver.

It's a usenet discussion. Heidi was discussing real
estate and used the vancouver market as an example
so I chose to do some research to examine her claims.

I guess all those hong kong millionaires will
need to buy homes to watch the olympics. :-)

With so much inventory, prices are slowly but surely falling
as homeowners looking to "retire" incrementally lower their
price and try to win the lottery. Will they be one of
the lucky ones to get bought out by someone who thinks
that this is a "bargain" time to buy?

Who cares? You could get hit by a bus. End of story.

How sweet of you to suggest that.

Who cares? I presume they do. NoVA owners are
sheepishly lowering their prices by 5% increments
even as they have tons of profits available to them.
Wait until they have to start coughing up some
real price discounts!

After reading your comments I did some web searching for prices of homes
in
Vancouver. I certainly couldn't afford to live in the areas I'd like to
(Point Grey, Kits, Kerrisdale). Much too spendy for me. A house just
up
the street from where my Dad's house used to be was listed at
$1,100,000.
He sold his house in 1986 and only got $300,000 and he thought he was
rich.
I couldn't afford to even buy on the same street as my father and mother
did. Sigh.....

Marg, you can rent up there for about $1,000 to $2,000 a month.
Oh, wait, according to Heidi that's not really living unless
you own. :-)

I wouldn't rent for anything, hon. I buy or nothing. It's my Scottish
heritage.

Apparently the Scots in your family were so well to do
that they had to come to America. :-)

regards,
PolishKnight
.

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