Re: {ASSD} Re: Rape: is a woman's behaviour to blame?

bowman wrote:
> H. Jekyll wrote:
>
> > -- It's just one of those little-known facts that seem to be in no
> > one's interest to publicize, certainly not of anti-rape advocates, who
> > portray society as going to hell in a handbasket of rapists. It's not.
> >
>
> http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_02/html/web/offreported/02-nforciblerape04.html
>
> "Marking the third consecutive year of increase, the UCR Program's estimate
> of female forcible rapes for 2002 was 95,136 offenses. This estimate was
> 4.7 percent higher than the 2001 approximation, and it was 2.1 percent
> higher than the offense estimate for 1998. However, the volume of forcible
> rapes in 2002 was 10.3 percent below the 1993 estimate."


-- The data source you showed, Bowman, is "crimes known to police,"
which is affected by the percentage of crimes actually reported.

-- If you go to this site,

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/rape.htm

-- you will get the trend in rape rates, through 2004, showing a
*continuing* drop, from 2.8 per 1,000 people over age 12 in 1979 (the
peak year), to 0.4 in 2004, a drop of just under 86% ( ! ). You can see
the trend as a figure, or click on it and get the table.

-- Another table at the same site shows that the percentage of crimes
that get reported to the police has increased. That gives the false
impression of an increase in crime, when in fact it is falling.

Henry

.

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