Re: Another what if...

On Jul 31, 12:40 am, "Jack S" <g...@xxxxxx> wrote:
A "what if" that's always seemed substantive to me, is what if
the loss at Stalingrad, Hitler's obstinate no withdrawal stance
and the misjudgments and over-reaching operations leading up
the debacle, were followed by a coup removing Hitler.

In a saner Germany, that's something that actually should have
happened.

So, what might have followed from the removal of Hitler in
early 1943?

I'd like to take a whack at this one.

Let's start by postulating that the only force strong enough to
depose Hitler would have been the Army. It would happen as it
almost happened on July 20, 1944. A band of dedicated mid-level
officers would kill the SOB.

I should think the very next thing that would happen would have
been a desperate power struggle withing the now beheaded Nazi
Party and between the Party and the Army militants who did the
beheading. Who won that struggle and how appealing they were
both to the Allies and the German people would seem to have
everything to do with what happened next.

My speculation is that the bulk of the Army would be opposed to a
coup on general principles, but be even more repelled by the
frankly repellent creatures at the top of the Party who
surrounded Hitler and who would probably be busy scrambling for
loot, for ways to get it out of the country, and for clear shots
at each other.

I would expect that the Army would come together around some
highly respectable and respected old school general whose
patriotism was unquestioned but whose ties to Naziism were loose
and breakable. I'm not sure who that would be. It wouldn't be
the relatively low ranking but otherwise excellent von
Stauffenberg. However, if Hitler were dead, perhaps von Manstein
or von Rundstedt would step forward and try to save the country.

Here's one possible scenario:

One of the above named generals takes command. Unit by unit, the
Army comes over to his side.

As power is consolidated, the first steps he must take are to
arrest Goering, Goebbels, Himmler, and the rest of them. Perhaps
it is only a house arrest, but they are cut off from
communications, arms, and any basis of power.

A next step might be to disband the SS and Gestapo. The Waffen
SS units are merged into the Wehrmacht under new commanders. Top
Gestapo leaders are arrested and all Gestapo organizations are
either disbanded or placed under civilian police control.

The "final solution", and the Draconian measures underway against
the occupied countries and peoples would be suspended. The
ongoing murders in concentration camps would be halted and a slow
process begun of letting people go who were not actual criminals.

The Allies, watching all this in fascination, would tread very
carefully. In particular, they would halt offensives in progress
and put out feelers. They wouldn't want to do anything to
destabilize the new government unless and until they decided that
the Nazis were going to defeat it and return to power.

Once power was consolidated in Germany, cool heads on both sides
might come together and begin negotiations. The Allies would ask
for unconditional surrender. The Germans would say that their
Army is still powerful and unbeaten. They would offer massive
concessions, including the return of most or all occupied
territory. The Allies would demand de-Nazification of Germany.
The Germans would agree but demand no breakup of Germany and no
occupation.

On the home front in the United States and Britain, people would
be jubilant. They'd demand that the war be ended and their boys
brought home. In the U.S., people would want the war focus to
switch to Japan. The political options for Roosevelt and
Churchill would narrow. Maybe even in the USSR there would be a
groundswell for peace that would be hard for Stalin to completely
ignore. A temporary armistice would be signed with Germany.
Over a period of six months or more some _modus operandi_ would
be reached and the war would be ended.

Would that be better than what happened? I think it would. It
might very well leave a milieu of unresolved militarism in
Germany. It might leave open the problem of yet another war in
yet another 20 years. But how could anyone continue to press for
war when the possibility of peace was at hand?

It's all wild speculation of course.

Alan

.

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