# Probabilities of conflict

Iran to be attacked by Israel - according to Panetta, the window of
opportunity for this event closes by the end of June when all
important centrifuges, analytic equipment, assembly plant etc will be
moved so far underground that they will be practically unassailable
except for nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons will not be used here.
Probability in next 2 months = .35

South Korea to be attacked by North Korea - now that SK has emplaced
Hyunmoo cruise missiles with ranges covering all of NK, NK missile
emplacements and nuclear facilities can be taken out completely and
quickly at whim. There is a window within which NK can attempt to
annihilate Seoul and behead the country which is rapidly closing, as
further nuclear tests and ICBM development continues in the North and
the imperative for SK and the US to hit and destroy the North
materialises. The fact that the cruise missile deployment has been
announced also means that it is fully deployed, every nuclear
installation etc in the North is targeted and the missile is a first
strike capability. Probability in the next 4 months = .40

China to attack dispositions of naval forces in the South China Sea,
likely either Vietnam or Phillipine - 5 billion barrels of oil
conservatively in the SCS, along with trillions of cubic feet of gas,
one third of the world's entire sea commerce passes through the SCS,
the US is staging a military buildup in the Phillipines (again), 2500
marines in Darwin in northern Australia, and naval aid (under the
pretence of searching for Vietnam war casualties) to Vietnam, and the
entire region being contested by China, Vietnam and the Phillipines -
incendiary. China will not attack the US navy, it is not suicidal.
However, China will attack Vietnam and or the Phillipines to protect
its rights (which are questionable) to the SCS. As the US deployment
increases, therefore, China's capacity to hit either or both VN or
Phillipines decreases. Probability in the next 8 months = .25

These are the major hot spots and while each probability is less than
even, the collation presents an overall probability which approaches
likelihood.

I haven't spoken of consequences. I will leave that to the
imagination.

thang
.

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