Re: Black Death timeline

On Mon, 10 Nov 2008 21:10:09 +1300, Eric Stevens
<eric.stevens@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:36:24 -0500, James Beck <jdbeck11209@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:40:44 +1300, Eric Stevens
<eric.stevens@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Sun, 9 Nov 2008 08:08:04 -0700, "J Antero" <ae@xxxxxx> wrote:


"SolomonW" <SolomonW@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > wrote in message
news:MPG.2380e715ccadb8e598971f@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In article <gf4q1k$4ph$13@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, gans@xxxxxxxxx says...
SolomonW <SolomonW@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > wrote:
In article <wbSdnVV1F8QwTI7UnZ2dnUVZ_u-dnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
pj@xxxxxxxxxx says...
Plague is transmitted from rodent to humans by the bite of
an infected flea vector.


Several problems with the speed of the spread of black death might be
explained if birds could be a carrier too. Say if the plague could be
transmitted from a bird to a flea, human or rodent.

Then as you say by fleas using rodents and humans.

One must be careful here. The disease spread at the rate
of human travel. No problem there at all.



Birds would simplify some of the mysteries of how quickly it spread and
some of the locations.


Many fleas can live off many different hosts including birds
particularly if they are desperate. So I do not see it as a big ask.

Please do a google search on birds fleas and diseases.

This book maybe interesting too.

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=0gsPc5lk7_UC&pg=PA850&lpg=PA850&dq=birds+carry+desease++fleas&source=web&ots=mu2czHfSzc&sig=SQa6cbsH7ApSFsJYVbKsdROvSw0&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=8&ct=result

See also http://tinyurl.com/55pw6a

A map of the spread of the BD in Europe coincides very well with trade
routes that were active during that time.


The impression one gains from studying the time sequence of
http://www.scholiast.org/history/blackdeath/index.html is that it
spread more like a fire.


Okay, but what I'm not quite getting is why seeing an epidemic develop
'more like a fire' is a criticism.

It isn't, except to the extent that it implies criticism with the
spread along trade routes hypothesis.

Well, it doesn't seem to do that...

Modern models of epidemics produce
simulations that *do* look like fires, complete with turbulent,
fractal edges. The last generation of epidemic models was built in the
early 1900s. They used fairly simple statistics in a series of
equations to give a rough estimate of how disease progresses. The
resulting curves are fairly smooth and continuous.

If you are referring to the spread of the plague, if the evidence and
data cited by Baillie is anything to go by, the classical smooth
curves cannot be derived from the data and are not continuous.

I haven't seen Baillie, yet, but you're being imprecise. Smooth curves
can always be derived from the data and modelled as continuous by
assumption. 'Classical' has no meaning in this context. Most of the
last generation of epidemic models are statistical, systems of
equations and parametric, though

Smoothing the data in that way isn't desireable, but anything else
pushed the limits of computation. Ideally, you'd like to see each
individual as a particle of sorts interacting with other individuals
in a natural way. For example, some people socialize very little.
Others socialize a lot. The latter group is much more likely to spread
contagion. OTOH, simulating such a complex model is a deep computing
problem, something on the order of say, compiling/antialiasing the CGI
for The Matrix, pt 2, i.e. 20-30 fast computers running for 6 months.

The slideshow of the data from the link you provided, although crude,
looks consistent with modern modelling assumptions about the
progression of an epidemic.

You mean the modern modelling assumptions match what is known about
the spread of the plague.

No. I mean that the slideshow you provided a link for crudely
resembles a modern epidemic simulation. I don't know whether anyone
has done a simulation of the plague, though it might be an interesting
thesis project.

It also appears to be moving along a
predictable course, travelling at about the right rate of speed, and
burning out at reasonable time intervals. In short, I guess I'd say
that it looks like an epidemic, and that it's pretty much as described
in detailed histories.

Can you make your objections more specific?

It's Mike Baillie who has the objections. You will have to read his
book while unravelling the data from his cometary hypothesis. As far
as his cometary hypothesis is concerned, he has made a strong case for
cometary influences at that time. However his case for the plague
being one of these is patchy.

Ok. Thanks.
.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: Black Death timeline
    ... explained if birds could be a carrier too. ... transmitted from a bird to a flea, ... The disease spread at the rate ... Modern models of epidemics produce ...
    (soc.history.medieval)
  • Re: Black Death timeline
    ... explained if birds could be a carrier too. ... Say if the plague could be ... transmitted from a bird to a flea, ... The disease spread at the rate ...
    (soc.history.medieval)
  • Re: Black Death timeline
    ... explained if birds could be a carrier too. ... transmitted from a bird to a flea, ... The disease spread at the rate ... Modern models of epidemics produce ...
    (soc.history.medieval)