Re: Plague of Justinian 541CE

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:08:35 GMT, "John Briggs"
<john.briggs4@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

bernardz wrote:
On Jan 30, 11:52 am, J A <jantero...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Jan 29, 3:48 pm, Eric Stevens <eric.stev...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:



On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 00:37:18 +1100,bernardZ<Berna...@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

In article <00isp3dcifokcm951d5dl4ubukc40e0...@xxxxxxx>,
eric.stev...@xxxxxxxxx says...
On Mon, 28 Jan 2008 21:03:50 +1100,bernardZ<Berna...@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Do you agree or disagree?

1) A maximum figure of 25 million dead for the Plague of
Justinian is considered a fairly reasonable estimate. A total
European population loss of 50 to 60 percent between 541 and 700
is credible.

2) Justinian's plague weakened the Byzantine Empire at the
critical point when it could have credibly rebuilt the Western
Roman Empire!

3) The Eastern Roman Empire and Persia were so weakened that it
allowed the rise of the Arabs who were coming out of a region
not badly effected by the plague. Similarly the rise of the
Franks.

For some details please read here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian

The Plague of Justinian appears to be associated with two
world-wide climate down-turn events. It is unlikely that any part
of the world was completely unaffected.

Constantinople probably suffered more than most because it had so
many people crammed together in the one place with all the
hygiene problems that this implies.

Generally the more developed the civilization the more affected.
This might help to explain the rise of the Franks and the Arabs.

The Roman Empire was already very shaky (rotten?) and it did not
need much of a push to make it fall over. It may have been that
several years of bad crops (famine?), disease, and the functional
collapse of the capital city were enough to allow surrounding
survivors to give the Roman Empire the coup de grace.

Indeed Empire building costs money and people.

For more information about the plague aspects I recommend reading
"New Light on the Black Death" by Mike Bail lie. British Amazon
has it at
http://www.amazon.co.uk/New-Light-Black-Death-Connection/dp/075243598...
orhttp://tinyurl.com/28yadh

The book is mainly about the 14th century plague but does contain
some interesting information about the Plague of Justin as well.
Baillie thinks there is good evidence that the plagues were
associated with comets.

I doubt that they were caused by comets (that is just my view for
all it is worth).

Read the book and you may change your mind.

I won't say that Baillie is able to prove his case beyond all
possible
doubt - there just isn't enough solid evidence. But he does have a
prima facie case. There are global climate down turns derived from
tree rings, marked atmospheric haze reported in both Europe and
China,
absence in ice cores of the acid traces typical of volcanoes,
peculiar
things happening to the C12/C14 calibration curve at the dates of
the
apparent down turn and reports of comets e.g. Roger of Wendover
writing:

I don't if comets had anything to do with it,

I have not read the book but I suspect that it is based on the Hoyle's
theory, that the comets have germs in them. It is not mainstream but
it is not considered crackpot theory as quite a few eminent people eg
Mike Bail, do accept it.

Isn't that quite a good definition of a crackpot theory?

The question is not whether or not it can be regarded as crackpot, but
whether or not it is consistent with the facts. I think Baillie is
correct. Much more than the mere spread of disease was going on at
that time. Something peculiar definitely happened to the atmosphere.



Eric Stevens
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Plague of Justinian 541CE
    ... Justinian is considered a fairly reasonable estimate. ... critical point when it could have credibly rebuilt the Western ... survivors to give the Roman Empire the coup de grace. ... apparent down turn and reports of comets e.g. Roger of Wendover ...
    (soc.history.medieval)
  • Re: Plague of Justinian 541CE
    ... A maximum figure of 25 million dead for the Plague of Justinian is ... The Eastern Roman Empire and Persia were so weakened that it allowed ... I doubt that they were caused by comets (that is just my view for all it ...
    (soc.history.medieval)