Re: Balance of probability?


""Roger Lovegrove"" <lovegrove@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:rogerlov$81.174.216.3$.000001c66ac8$4c3d0a30$03d8ae51@xxxxxxx
Stephen wrote

Two sources
indicate that
Jane married William Plowman and two indicate that she married Thomas
St Lo. I have listed the various "facts" I have found at;

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/stephen.plowman1/elizabethdaubeney.htm

I feel that the balance of probability is that Jane married Thomas St
Lo.

Even if the balance of probabilities did suggest one way over the other, I
think you do need to ask yourself whether that is a high enough standard
of
proof. On average, one could expect 25% of decisions made "on the balance
of
probabilities" to be wrong.

Would not a better standard be "beyond all reasonable doubt"?

I'd agree.
One obvious question, who died in what order? Could Jane and Thomas have
died young(ish) and their widows married each other?
Lesley Robertson


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