Indonesia trumps Thailand ?

From the Sydney Morning Herald SMH


Thailand turns into Indonesia - and vice versa

* Peter Hartcher
* May 12, 2009

Thailand likes to call itself The Land of Smiles. And for a while
after the advent of democracy in 1992 this seemed to be unusually
accurate for an official slogan.

Democracy seemed to flourish. Even during the traumatic Asian economic
crisis of 1997 the generals stayed in their barracks. Growth quickly
returned. The tourists flooded in. Foreign investors smiled on the
Thais, who returned the favour.

In the parallel universe known as Indonesia, the picture was more
ominous. Its slogan, Unity in Diversity, seemed an exercise in dark
sarcasm. Diversity was hammered into frightened unity by its military
dictator, Soeharto. When the Asian crisis forced Soeharto out of power
in 1998 the outlook only seemed to darken.

A succession of simpletons and underperformers took the presidency.
The economy was moribund. Islam woke from its long slumber under
Soeharto and seemed to be asserting itself. Its diversity would now be
repressed by the Muslim majority, it appeared.

Indonesia's prospects seemed to go from bad to worse. Terrorists
bombed tourists in the peaceful holiday destination of Bali. The Petri
dish of Indonesian Islam seemed to be breeding a newly virulent form
of violent extremism. Investors gave the country a wide berth.

If Thailand seemed to represent sunrise in South-East Asia, Indonesia
appeared to be the region's nightfall.

Today we see an extraordinary role reversal. Thailand is now a wreck,
suffering a constitutional crisis, emergency rule and an investment
strike.

As the Bangkok Post put it last month: "How could the Rice Bowl of
Asia, a trade and transport hub of the Greater Mekong sub-region, an
erstwhile Asian Tiger and 'Amazing Thailand' in tourism terms … come
dangerously close to becoming a failed state?"

Indonesia, on the other hand, is stable and tolerant under a mature
and clean president, with better growth prospects than any of the
states in the region. The US think tank Freedom House has designated
Indonesia for the first time as the only fully free and democratic
country in South-East Asia.

As Andrew MacIntyre and Douglas Ramage put it in a paper for the
Australian Strategic Policy Institute: "Indonesia in 2008 is a stable,
competitive electoral democracy, with a highly decentralised system of
governance, achieving solid rates of economic growth, under competent
national leadership, and playing a constructive role in the regional
and broader international community."

While Indonesia glowed with the success of hosting 189 nations'
representatives at the Bali climate change conference in December
2007, Thailand was humiliated last month when it had to abort a summit
of 16 national leaders for the East Asian summit.

With the Thai Army rendered impotent by surging red-shirted protesters
in Pattaya, the leaders of China and Japan were evacuated by
helicopter, and other leaders' planes turned around in midair. It was
a shocking blow to Thai credibility, unable to host a meeting,
incapable of protecting world leaders on its soil.

Consider the same point and counterpoint last weekend.

While about 20,000 red-shirted protesters took to the streets of
Bangkok to demonstrate against the violently repressive tactics of the
unelected government, Indonesia announced the results of its peaceful
parliamentary elections.

What happened? How did these two key states of South-East Asia come to
trade places so dramatically?

Thailand's trajectory changed with the decision to mount an
unconstitutional coup against the prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra,
first elected in 2001 and resoundingly re-elected in 2005.

The billionaire businessman was a polarising leader. He was wildly
popular with the rural poor and the working class, but bitterly
opposed by the urban elites and the army.

The decision to send the army to (Edited - Board Mod).

The last time the king had intervened decisively in politics was to
end a violent constitutional crisis. This time he provoked one.

The army and the palace imposed an unelected regime on the country,
promising future elections. But Thaksin's supporters wage an unending
war of civil disobedience. Thaksin himself, running from a corruption
charge, continues to foment protest from abroad. Thai analysts say it
is hard to see any resolution. The two sets of opposing forces are
roughly equal, and an election would be unlikely to solve the stand-
off, they say.

Indonesia's fortunes pivoted on the election of Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, known universally in Indonesia as SBY. The former general
has proved to be wise as well as popular since taking power in 2004.
He is pro-business and pro-West, and also forcefully anti-terrorism
and anti-corruption. Indeed, he has allowed the prosecution of his own
brother-in-law on corruption charges.

Islamic political parties have moderated, not radicalised.

Indonesia now has a vibrant free press and a judiciary that is uneven
but improving. Democracy has become solidly legitimised - generals and
muftis alike compete for power at the ballot box, not in the streets.
He is the easy favourite for the two-step presidential election due in
July with a run-off in September, if required.

The region is suffering from the global financial crisis. But while
the Asian Development Bank forecasts that Thai economic growth will
fall from 2.6 per cent last year to minus 2 per cent this year, it
expects Indonesia to suffer more mildly, slowing from 6.1 per cent to
3.6 per cent.

The essential difference is that Indonesian power elites universally
respect the legitimising power of democracy. The Thais have not. And
the leading source of anti-democratic arrogance (Edited - Board Mod).
So Indonesia has emerged as a model state, a living rebuttal of the
notion that Islam and democracy are incompatible. Its diversity has
unified behind democracy. Thailand is turning into just another sad,
broken autocracy. The smile has become a grimace.

Peter Hartcher is the Herald's international editor.
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