No-Confidence Debate Results and Opposition/Government Numbers
- From: pluto <pluto@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 07:04:28 +0800
No-Confidence Debate Results and Opposition/Government Numbers
Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 3/23/2009 05:00:00 AM
First, on the number of MPs for each party. Matichon
<http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1237641166&grpid=05&catid=01>
reports that there are currently 465 MPs (out of 480 MPs). Puea Thai have 182
MPs, the Democrats have 170, Bhum Jai Thai has 32, Puea Paendin has 30, Chat
Thai Pattana has 25, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana has 9, Social Action has 5 and
Rassadorn 3 (cf Matichon's
<http://siamreport.blogspot.com/2009/01/house-seat-distribution.html> report
after the by-elections in January to see how things change all the time)Second,
according to the same Matichon report, the government formerly consists of the
262 MPs, the Democrats, Bhum Jai Thai, Chat Thai Pattana, Ruam Jai Thai Chat
Pattana, Social Action and 21 out of Puea Paendin's 30 MPs.Third, the opposition
formerly has 203 MPs, Puea Thai, Rassadorn, Pracharaj and Puea Paendin "Group of
12" although in reality they only have 9 MPs.However, while the government has
262 MPs, 24 who are Ministers are not allowed to vote in accordance with Section
177 of the Constitution so the most from the formal government they have is only
238 MPs and the maximum number who can vote is 449. Nevertheless, there were a
few government MPs absent for each vote and there were 235 government MPs
present for Interior Minister Bonjoong's vote versus 234 MPs for the other
Ministers.Puea Thai had 3 absences so the most for the opposition was 200 MPs.A
vote of confidence required 234 votes [BP: This is
<http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/138109/govt-survives-no-confidence-vote>
according to Abhisit]For Abhisit, 449 MPs voted, 246 voted for Mr Abhisit with
176 votes against. Twelve MPs abstained from voting while 15 others did not cast
the votes. For those who abstained, 8 were Pracharaj MPs, 3 were Puea Thai MPs
(1.?.?.???? ??ิ?????? ?.?.????ุ?ี 2.?????????
??้??ี?ั? ?.?.??ี?????
???????????????????ู้???????????ี่??ึ่?
3.?.?.??ิ?ั??์ ?ิ?ิ???ั?
?.?.????ุ?ี
???????????????????ู้???????????ี่??? - 2 of them were
Deputy Speakers so their abstaining was expected), one from Puea Paendin, namely
Pracha the Group of 12 leader.12 opposition MPs also voted/expressed confidence
in Abhisit, namely 8 of the 9 "Group of 12" Puea Paendin MPs, the 3 Rassadorn
MPs, and one from Pracharaj (he is actually related to Newin).For Korn of the
447 who voted, he received 246 votes for versus 174 against with 12
absentations, and 15 who didn't vote.For those who didn't vote, 14 were Cabinet
Ministers and one Puea Thai MP. For abstaining and votes of confidence, it is
the same as for Abhisit.For Kasit, 237 votes of confidence, 184 against, 12
absentations, and 13 who didn't vote.For those who didn't vote it was 13
Ministers.For those who abstained, it was one Democrat MP, 4 MPs from the "Group
of 12" from Pracha, the same 3 from Puea Thai as for Abhisit, 3 from Rassadorn,
1 from Bhum Jai Thai, 3 from Rassadorn.For those who voted in favour of Kasit
from the opposition, 3 from Puea Paendin.For the extra votes against Kasit (ie
not expressing confidence) compared with other Ministers, were the 9 Pracharaj
MPs.BP: The 3 Rassadorn MPs are all Muslim MPs and one voted them was on TV
citing the airport closure and problems caused by Muslims going on the Haj as
part of the reason for his absentation. Kasit barely passed the minimum of 234
MPs and no matter how Abhisit spins it, Kasit is the weakness in the Minister's
ranks. In the latest ABAC poll (more on that later when can get the full
details), 41.8% think he should be removed versus 18.2% for Korn, and 16.5% for
Abhisit.For the Interior Minister Chaowarat, 246 voted for, 167 against, 20
abstained, and 14 didn't voted.For those who didn't vote, they were all
Ministers.For the 20 who abstained, 10 were from Puea Thai including the 2
Deputy Speakers. 8 Pracharaj MPs (same as for Abhisit), 1 from Puea Paendin, and
1 from the DemocratsFor the 12 opposition MPs who voted for Chaowarat (ie
expressed confidence), 7 from Puea Paendin, 3 Rassadorn MPs, 1 Puea Thai MP and
1 from Pracharaj (ie Newin's relative as mentioned above)BP: Odd piece of
trivia, the Democrat who abstained was Somkiat, who is also a PAD leader. One of
the Puea Thai MPs who also abstained was Karun Hosakul who infamously
<http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/2008/04/fighting-in-house.html> tried to kick
Somkiat in the parliamentary canteen last year. Now, they are on the same
side...For Deputy Interior Minister Boonjong of the 447 MPS, 246 voted for, 168
against, 18 abstained and 15 didn't vote.For the 15 who didn't vote, 14
Ministers and 1 Puea Thai MP.For the 18 who abstained, 8 from Pracharaj (the
same as for Abhisit), 8 from Puea Thai including the 2 Deputy Speakers, 1 from
Puea Paendin Group of 12 (namely Pracha), and Democrat MP Somkiat.For the 12
opposition MPs who voted for Boonjong (ie expressed confidence), 7 from Puea
Paendin Group of 12, 3 Rassadorn Mps, 1 Puea Thai MP and 1 from Pracharaj (ie
Newin's relative as mentioned above). This is the same as for Chaowarat.BP: Some
brief analysis on the coalition and opposition strength.For the opposition, they
"officially" started with 203 MPs, namely 182 from Puea Thai, 3 from Rassadorn,
9 from Pracharaj and 9 Puea Paending MPs. BP views they have lost the 3
Rassadorn MPs, 8 of the 9 Puea Paendin MPs, and 1 from Pracharaj to the
government for 12.They have lost at least one Puea Thai MP, Pongpol, to the
government benches. Won't count those Puea Thai MPs who abstained for the Bhum
Jai Thai Ministers, but voted against all the Democrat MPs as being lost. The
other 8 from Pracharaj move from opposition to the neutral camp. Tentatively,
you can put the opposition now at 182 MPs.NOTE: Hard to tell about the Puea
Paendin MPs. They had stated they would remain neutral, but then changed their
vote at the last minute. This coincided with rumours of 1 million baht a vote of
voting for the government from Bhum Jai Thai supporters/backers so their switch
may have just been temporary.For the government, they have not lost any MPs.
They have gained the 13 MPs mentioned above meaning they have increased from 262
MPs to 275 MPs.Another 8 from Pracharaj are in the neutral camp.On the prospect
that other Puea Thai MPs may leave Puea Thai, well they won't leave Puea Thai in
name as they can't join another party until a parliamentary dissolution, but the
chance that a small number will vote with Bhum Jai Thai is quite high (note you
may need to separate of voting with the government compared to voting with Bhum
Jai Thai as some future votes may see Bhum Jai Thai taking a more hardline
position).The maximum that BP sees voting with Bhum Jai Thai is 20 Puea Thai
MPs. This is simply based on the 20 who enquired about leaving previously. It is
hard to see Puea Thai going less than 160 MPs as the government already has an
increased majority so there is little for the Democrats to trade away in terms
of Cabinet positions for extra MPs. These extra 20 are somewhat flexible, they
were quick to join Puea Thai, but when the political winds moved against Puea
Thai after the January by-elections, they wanted to move to Bhum Jai Thai, but
now some are more closer to Bhum Jai Thai then others. For the no-confidence
debate, the maximum who abstained was only 8 Puea Thai MPs (the 2 Deputy
Speakers don't count) so these 8 are the most likely to defect whereas the
others still seem in the Puea Thai camp for now. What they may decide in the
future, is likely to depend on the political situation of the day and how strong
the government and Bhum Jai Thai are.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2 comments
Netirat // March 23, 2009 6:59 AM
The vote of confidence has produced a net gain for the government. Chalerm et al
have done a big favor for Abhisit.
Occasional // March 23, 2009 9:38 AM
Numbers dont mean anything on who will defect imho. That depends on how Newin
goes in the Isaan and right now his offical infromation network and his
unoffical spread the word network have only been working a short time. However,
some of the stuff going round is quite damaging to Thaksin if it gets more
momentum.That is Newin's plan to grab as much of the Isaan as possible. The more
effective his information war the more MPs will defect. It comes dowen to will
you win using Thaksin's name or will you win using Newin's as nobody is rerally
an ideologue who will happily get stuffed by staying with the wrong power
broker.The other thing to look for is faction approaches although now PTP has a
lot of people in nominal easy to change factions rather than hard ones and this
is especially true in the Isaan which is what Newin concentrates on. Right now
Thaksin et al are conducting things from their upper Northern redoubt where his
family are so strong and providing Yuth doesnt do one and defect almost
unbeatable. However, that is a low base to have as your sure and reliable one.
The rest is in play and that is why Thaksin is fighting so hard and getting
desperate. I think he even resorted to the "Ai" word in his latest as pressure
builds and he once again says (yawn, yawn) he is going to name those behind his
removal. Well quite frankly he cant really name anyone higher up than he has
already.The confidence motion itself was scatter gun and pretty ineffective on
government. It will be interesting to see if TPI tie it all up in court by suing
Chalerm about the old "donation" issue. Most people I talk to - admittedly 95%
not political junkies - seem to actually have paid little attention to the
debate and remain bored by the same old nonsense continuing for a while longer
yet.
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