Re: Hiv-Aids in Thailand - up or down?

On Mon, 19 Nov 2007 11:02:14 -0800 (PST), Vagabond
<retoricus2@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

I have no problem believing that Thai women have fewer babies now than
they used to. That's not a miracle. It is a global trend.

But reducing the number of annual Hiv infections to nearly 1/10 of
what it was is a miracle.

The Thai government provides the numbers. Someone said there are lies,
damn lies and Thai statistics. Thai statistics are not only poorly
collected, they are also vulnerable to Soviet-style effects. The
government wants better numbers, so the agencies report better numbers
regardless of what the truth is.

I would like to see some independent international confirmation before
I am convinced.

Here is a link to a story which questions another Hiv-Aids success
story, the one in Uganda:

http://newswww.bbc.net.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3677570.stm


Ahem...
since the time I read you on sct, I think you are a down-to-earth
person, unlike the Alzheimer experts that now pollute this ng with
their pathetic prejudice or some perfessor from NJ addicted to
theorical statistics' masturbation.
So here is my point. I'm not an Aids' specialist but this disease has
an impact in my occupation, which in some respects looks a little bit
like yours...
It's clear that every country in the world try to falsify the truth
about the Aids epidemic at home. This said, the worst liars about
HIV/Aids are not in Asean, or China or Africa as the journalists of
the West bark night and day but the moslim countries in the Middle
East and Central Asia, because of their brutish belief in the Arabic
Holy Sh*t.

Unfortunately, the pride of the western civilization, i.e. the United
Nations, sometimes also act as total buffoons in serious matters like
the bird flu two years ago or Aids, as this recent article
demonstrates:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071120/ts_nm/aids_un_dc

Regards,
Mort
_

U.N. slashes AIDS estimates in latest report
by Maggie Fox
Health and Science Editor Tue Nov 20

The United Nations has slashed its estimates of how many people are
infected with the AIDS virus, from nearly 40 million to 33 million.

In a report to be issued on Tuesday, the U.N. says revised estimates
on HIV in India account for a large part of the decrease.

The agency admitted it overestimated how many people are infected with
the incurable virus, and said better methods of collecting data show
it is not quite as common as feared.

"The single biggest reason for this reduction was the intensive
exercise to assess India's HIV epidemic, which resulted in a major
revision of that country's estimates," the report said.

After originally estimating some 5.7 million people were infected in
India, the U.N. more than halved that estimate, to 2.5 million.

But the numbers nonetheless show the epidemic is overwhelming and that
efforts to fight HIV must still be stepped up, said officials at the
U.N. AIDS agency UNAIDS.

"These improved data present us with a clearer picture of the AIDS
epidemic, one that reveals both challenges and opportunities," UNAIDS
Executive Director Dr. Peter Piot said in a statement.

"Unquestionably, we are beginning to see a return on investment -- new
HIV infections and mortality are declining and the prevalence of HIV
leveling. But with more than 6,800 new infections and over 5,700
deaths each day due to AIDS, we must expand our efforts in order to
significantly reduce the impact of AIDS worldwide."

The new numbers suggest that some 33.2 million people are infected
with the human immunodeficiency virus -- about 30.8 million adults and
2.5 million children.

DOUBLING IN ASIA

UNAIDS estimated that 1.7 million people became newly infected in
sub-Saharan Africa this year, a significant reduction since 2001.
But Africa remains by far the continent hardest hit by AIDS, with 22.5
million people infected with HIV.

"Eight countries in this region now account for almost one-third of
all new HIV infections and AIDS deaths globally," said UNAIDS.

"In Asia, the estimated number of people living with HIV in Vietnam
has more than doubled between 2000 and 2005 and Indonesia has the
fastest growing epidemic."

The report gives two reasons for the downward revisions -- one is
better data and the other is an actual decrease in the number of new
infections.

"UNAIDS and (the World Health Organization) are now working with
better information from many more countries," UNAIDS said.

The number of new HIV infections each year likely peaked in the late
1990s at 3 million and was estimated at 2.5 million for 2007, UNAIDS
said.

"This reflects natural trends in the epidemic, as well as the result
of HIV prevention efforts. Of the total difference in the estimates
published in 2006 and 2007, 70 percent are due to changes in six
countries: Angola, India, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe,"
the report said.

"In both Kenya and Zimbabwe, there is increasing evidence that a
proportion of the declines is due to a reduction of the number of new
infections which is, in part due to a reduction in risky behaviors."

The U.N also changed its estimate on how long it takes to die of AIDS
if not treated from 9 years to 11 years.
.

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