Thailand Crisis oct27
- From: pluto <pluto@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2007 13:51:19 +0800
Thailand Crisis
Politics, Economy, Insurgency : Crisis Times in Thailand
Blog ABOUT WHY WE SHOULD WORRY INDICATORS FBA : THE SPECIAL DOSSIER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflation : the government blocks some retail prices? Until? the elections
Published October 27th, 2007 Economy , Inflation/CPI 0 Comments
?The ministry does not like to block retail prices, but sometimes it has to when
consumers have low purchasing power?, says the Director-general of the Commerce
Ministry?s Internal Trade Department. (Nation).
I think it?s pretty clear for those who still see Thailand as a heaven for free
market economy.
Soon, I?m wondering if they would do like Zimbabwe : to declare inflation
illegal.
Anyway. They organized a meeting.
?Manufacturers of consumer goods, including foods and beverages, yesterday
generally agreed to maintain their retail prices until early next year, to
alleviate the burden on consumers.?
Read : after the elections. And we should thank them.
Meanwhile, the Minister is very well aware of the problems : ?manufacturers were
facing higher production costs, mainly from uncontrolled imported raw materials
and freight charges. As a result, manufacturing costs are forecast to increase
through early next year?.
So ? For political reasons, they just want to wait? a little bit more.
Congratulation for their courage, and their sense of responsability.
Because of course, only a fool could pretend today that the situation is going
to improve until january? With the oil crisis, we are on the verge of an
explosion of inflation.
Everybody know that. But better to think about it tomorrow? right ?
With a smile. A thai smile of course.
Meanwhile, PPT, the oil company, is proud to announce that they won?t increase
the price of gasoline? this week-end (TNA). But ?but will monitor the global oil
prices next week?. Ah yes ?monitor?, it makes all the difference?
Great we save 2 days? No need of course to remind you that oil broke another
record friday : almost 92 USD !
And the president of the company made a bet (a dangerous one ?) : ? he believed
that crude oil price won?t reach US$100 per barrel next year but will hover
around US$70-80 per barrel?.
?Recovery of consumption in Q3? : debunking the boiling room
Published October 26th, 2007 Economy , GDP , Stats 0 Comments
Here is a good example of propaganda, of what I call the ?boiling room? syndrom
: misinterpretations of datas, false extrapolations, mix of comparisons in
percentages and values and mix of periods? in order to ?spin?, to ?boil? the
economic situation.
At least, its apparences. Its face, as a thai would rather say.
For the demonstration, I will take an article published today by Nation, based
on a report of the Fiscal Policy Office.
Ready ? Fasten your seatbelt.
First, the baseline (the mantra) : ?Consumption is recovering, as revealed by
several indicators.?
Sir, yes sir.
? According to the monthly economic report, collection of value-added tax in
real terms expanded by 3.1 per cent year on year compared with 0.7-per-cent
growth in the previous quarter.?
Totally idiotic. Base effect. Q3 2006 was really bad. So naturally, Q3 2007
looks better, year on year in percentage.
But actually, if we look at the amounts, in value : Q2 of this year = 109,94
billions THB. And Q3 = 109,96 billion. Now, that?s an impressive hike?
Furthermore, imports also count for VAT revenues. Exports and imports in august
and september were strong, so it?s normal that VAT is going up (keep in mind
that a lot of exports use imported parts and materials).
VAT is not automatically a sign of private consumption.
?Sales of cars also increased by 2.3 per cent year on year, compared with a
sales drop in the three previous consecutive quarters. Car sales in September,
however, dropped by 2.1 per cent.?
Base effect again, Q3 last year was bad. If we look the figures : Q3 2006 = 44
676 cars. Q4 = 52 602 cars. Q1 2007= 37 522. Q2 = 45 567. Q3 = 45 717. So,150
cars more than Q2? Nice score.
And another blow : they tell us that the negative trend is back in september?
?Sales of motorcycles still faced a decline of 23.2 per cent, following a sales
contraction for four consecutive quarters. This indicated that consumption is
recovering in bigger cities but remains weak in rural areas.?
Amazing statement ! A staggering proof of recovery indeed : a sharp drop in
motobikes sales. But the spin doctors have an answer for everything : the
situation is ?better? in Bangkok, where? obviously houselholds have more money
to spend.
It?s like to say : ?the recovery is here, because the rich people can buy?more?.
?Imports of consumer goods in terms of volume rose by 17.6 per cent, compared
with a growth rate of 17.5 per cent in the second quarter.?
Amazing recovery. From 17,5 to? 17,6 %. Absurd.
By the way you will notice : no year on year comparison anymore.
?The Consumer Confidence Index in the third quarter was 69.7, suggesting
confidence remained weak.?
And the final blow, like the ?bouquet final? of a fireworks : consumption is
?recovering?. But consumer confidence ?remains weak?.
Indeed (read here).
See you in Q4 folks. With oil, inflation on fire, and the so called ?miracle
elections? of december, exports under threat (low USD and lower demand in the US
and Japan). it?s going to be jumpy?
You?ll find here, all my charts (some of them cover GDP, private consumption,
sales of cars etc.).
Oil crisis : UNDP worries about poor people in Asia-Pacific
Published October 25th, 2007 Economy , Oil / Energy 1 Comment
The UN Development Programme publishes a report ?Overcoming Vulnerability to
Rising Oil Prices: Options for Asia and the Pacific? with a new ?Oil Price
Vulnerability Index?(PDF file here).
It?s a comprehensive work. Fascinating.
?Soaring oil prices are threatening the prospects of millions of the region?s
poor and forcing them further into poverty, says a report issued here today by
the UN Development Programme (UNDP). As oil prices climb, the impact on the poor
may presage worse to come warns the publication, Overcoming Vulnerability to
Rising Oil Prices: Options for Asia and the Pacific.
?Oil Prices have tripled over the last four years. Today the price is
approaching $90 a barrel. This has meant that the Asia and Pacific region has
had to pay an additional bill of almost $400 billion for imports compared to the
amount spent in 2003. This is 20 times the annual aid flow to the region,? said
Hafiz Pasha, UNDP Regional Director for Asia and Pacific, at the launch of the
report in Bangkok. ?It has become a real issue for an otherwise fast-growing
region to absorb this staggeringly large bill,? said Mr. Pasha.
The timing is perfect : oil reached a new record today (NY) at more than 90 USD
per barrel !
The Oil Price Vulnerability Index is based on 3 ?dimensions? (each of them has a
few components) :
-Economic strength
-Economic performance
-Economic growth with low share of oil
Thailand general rank is 8 on 24 (Maldives at 24 is the most vulnerable, Iran
the least vulnerable).
But Thai?s rank is 18 for ?Economic growth with low share of oil? (dimension
with 2 components : Real GDP growth rate, and Share of oil in primary energy
consumption).
By looking at the different components of the index, we can see that Oil
Intensity (amount of oil required to produce a unit of economic output) is very
high in Thailand. Like in China.
That?s the weak point of the country, somehow hidden by the good results of some
other components (GDP per capita, balance of payment for instance etc.).
Nation has an article about this report. We can admire the optimism of the thai
Energy Minister? ?Thailand has been providing a lot more incentive for renewable
energy for very small power producers using various waste agriculture and raw
materials.
?Biofuels are doing well to the extent that we will probably have enough raw
material for the production of biodiesel by the end of next year, and now effort
has to be spent in the production of palm oil?.
Joke of the day : ?Efforts to thwart PPP are justified?
Published October 25th, 2007 Politics , Weird/Bigotry 0 Comments
The winner of the day is the Defense Minister, about the PPP scandal (read here
and here).
?Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas yesterday defended the military?s right to
suppress the influences of the political powers it ousted in last year?s coup,
but said such actions must end now an election had been called.? (Bangkok Post)
Let?s try to understand the totally twisted logic of the Defense Minister : we
had the right to undermine PPP until now. But we have to stop now because an
election has been called ? !
Enough to be totally speechless.
Mama?s price drama : increase postponed?
Published October 25th, 2007 Economy , Inflation/CPI 0 Comments
A perfect communication operation from CP Group, the manufacturer of the famous
Mama instant noodle soup?
A few weeks ago, they announce that? they are planning a hike of 20 % of the
price of Mama soup (from 5 to 6 THB per pack), due to higher cost of raw
materials.
The price of this product didn?t change since 1997 !
Large discussion with the government who is of course panicked in front of such
idea (three month before the elections, that would be bad).
Then, the chairman says : ?but our board didn?t take the decision. Yet?.
Then? yesterday, with a perfect timing and theatrical sense, the company
announces that ?although costs of raw materials used to produce consumer goods
had continued to rise, the company would not yet raise its prices. It will keep
the prices of its products unchanged to ease the burden on consumers.?
It?s courageous. It?s grand. Overwhelming emotions. Thank you CP Group, we love
you.
I?m sure that the audience is already crying?
And right after : ?However, should a price hike be unavoidable, CPF would
consider options having no impact on consumers.? (TNA)
So, if we try to decipher : after the elections ?
Again, it?s a perfect PR operation.
Plot against PPP : Surayud gives back the ball to the Junta
Published October 25th, 2007 Politics 0 Comments
To read a translation of the leaked documents (that shows that the Prime
Minister is lying when he says that the plan does not target one specific
political party), visit BangkokPundit blog (here).
Today, cautiously, Suraryud gives (back) the ball to the CNS?
As usual, politicians have a limited? sense of responsibility.
?Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont will discuss with acting Council for National
Security chairman Chalit Phukphasuk the classified documents leaked from the
Council for National Security (CNS) that showed the military was plotting to
paralyse the People Power party (PPP) ahead of the general election.
Gen Surayud said he will ask ACM Chalit to explain the matter to public after
the discussion.
Whether or not the matter will be solved ?depends on the consideration of the
CNS,? he said.
On Wednesday, the premier defended the CNS, saying that he saw nothing in the
documents other than its normal operations.
The documents list a series of action plans to be carried out until the
completion of the registration of election candidates on Nov 16 to prevent PPP
and its leader Samak Sundaravej from rising to power.? (Bangkok Post)
King?s health : 12th update
Published October 24th, 2007 Politics 0 Comments
?The infection in His Majesty?s large intestine has subsided and he can now eat
a variety of foods, the Royal Household Bureau said in a statement yesterday
[wednesday night].
The reduced effect of the infection was verified after a blood test and His
Majesty?s general condition was good, the statement said, quoting the Committee
of Royal Physicians.? (Nation)
Tuesday, the official statement focused on the fact that the King ?gained
strength in his right leg after daily exercises supervised by physiotherapist?.
?He has started walking again with the help of a walker?.
Plot against PPP, scandal : the documents are real !
Published October 24th, 2007 Politics 0 Comments
Tags: Politics
?Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said classified documents uncovered by People
Power party (PPP) leader Samak Sundaravej that plotted a campaign to prevent his
party from winning December?s general election are real.Gen Surayud said the
documents were details of the one-year work of Council for National Security
(CNS).
The prime minister added that the documents contain no information that said the
CNS planned to use violence to destroy the PPP or the old power clique.
He also said that it is the job of the CNS to investigate the matter and explain
the truth to public.? (Bangkok Post)
What a bunch of pathetics bozos clowns.
Another scandal? Well done Sonthi.
Once again Thaksin will be able to present himself as a victim. And a real one.
And once again the image of ?democracy lovers? of the Junta is taking a serious
blow.
The usual tactic of defense is denial (Sonthi tried yesterday). But we have to
admire the genuity of Surayud !
Joke of the day : ?if those docs are real, we must have them?
Published October 24th, 2007 Politics , Weird/Bigotry 3 Comments
Tags: Bigotry / weirdness, Politics
As you may know the PPP (reincarnation of Thaksin?s party) says it has documents
that proove that the gvt has a plan to prevent PPP from winning the elections.
Here is what ex General Sonthi, ex Chief of Army, new Deputy Prime Minister, has
to say about this strange story : ? It is the responsibility of the army to
verify the authenticity of documents uncovered by People Power party (PPP)
leader Samak Sundaravej detailing a plan for a state agency to prevent him and
his party from rising to power, Deputy Prime Minister Sonthi Boonyaratkalin said
Wednesday.
Gen Sonthi denied having seen the documents but said there is no need to ask for
them from Mr Samak.
?If they are real, we must have it here (at the army headquarters),? Gen Sonthi
told reporters.?
What is it ? Black humor ? Or the guy is totally and definitely dumb ?
Offend Buddha ? 25 years of jail
Published October 24th, 2007 Politics , Weird/Bigotry 0 Comments
Tags: Bigotry / weirdness, Politics
They need to stop. Thailand has to stop them. The country must end this insane
Junta. It?s becoming urgent?
A group of 179 members of the NLA (National Legislative Assembly), ?will today
consider a bill that will introduce harsh punishments for various forms of
offences against Buddhism, including sexual affairs with monks, novices and nuns
and, for the first time, officially recognise the status of nuns.?
?The bill sets a jail term of 10-25 years and/or a fine of 500,000-1,000,000
baht for insulting, offending, imitating and distorting Buddhism and the Lord
Buddha and a jail term of 5-10 years and/or a fine of 100,000-500,000 baht for
damaging Buddhist objects, personnel and places.
People who have any form of sexual affair with monks, novices and nuns are
liable to five to 10 years in jail and/or a fine of 100,000-500,000 baht.
However, the bill does not include any punishments for monks, novices and nuns
who engage in sexual relations.? (Bangkok Post)
Weird : The ?Office of Knowledge Management and Development? on weight loss cure
Published October 24th, 2007 Weird/Bigotry 0 Comments
Tags: Bigotry / weirdness
It?s good to see that Thailand has also its crazy public agencies, real black
holes designed to suck public money, with very improbable names.
For instance : The Office of Knowledge Management and Development.
Sounds nice, right ?
This ?thing? was created by Thaksin, in order to ?promote Thailand?s
competitiveness?? Yes, I know, it could be hilarious?
And recently, this agency has been criticized for its ?extravagants spendings?
(Nation).
This ?thing? is renting offices in the Emporium Tower, at 5 millions THB per
month for instance. Sweet.
But wait? for the best.
The agency has 7 units under its banner. Not 1 or 2. Seven : ?The National
Institute for Brain-Based Learning (NBL), the National Centre for the Gifted and
Talented (NGT), Thailand Knowledge Park (TK Park), the National Discovery Museum
Institute, the Thailand Creative and Design Centre (TCDC), the Thailand Centre
of Excellence for Life Sciences, and the Centre for the Promotion of National
Strength on Moral Ethics and Values.?
This list is like a -post modern- poetry. And no, you don?t want to know what
those people are doing exactly?
Personally, my favorite is the last one . Well? the first one is nice too (?The
National Institute for Brain-Based Learning?, unbelievable).
Well, actually, they are all good.
By the way, BangkokPundit did a very comprehensive work about Thailand Creative
and Design Centre (one of the agency of the OKMD)? With some other views.
Next Page »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thailand Crisis
Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in
Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.
But this time, it's different.
The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of
King Bhumibol.
To read
ABOUT
FBA : THE SPECIAL DOSSIER
INDICATORS
WHY WE SHOULD WORRY
Categories
1 Essentials
Censorship
Economy
All Charts
Currency
Exports/Imports
FBA
GDP
Inflation/CPI
Oil / Energy
Real Estate
Stats
Tourism
Politics
Press
Terror In South
Weird/Bigotry
Recent Posts
Inflation : the government blocks some retail prices? Until? the elections
?Recovery of consumption in Q3? : debunking the boiling room
Oil crisis : UNDP worries about poor people in Asia-Pacific
Joke of the day : ?Efforts to thwart PPP are justified?
Mama?s price drama : increase postponed?
Plot against PPP : Surayud gives back the ball to the Junta
King?s health : 12th update
Plot against PPP, scandal : the documents are real !
Joke of the day : ?if those docs are real, we must have them?
Offend Buddha ? 25 years of jail
Blogroll
Archives
October 2007 (76)
September 2007 (64)
August 2007 (34)
July 2007 (31)
June 2007 (40)
May 2007 (3)
Subscribe in a reader
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Theme: k2 by k2 team. Blog at WordPress.com.
RSS Entries and RSS Comments
.[IN REPLYING/DETERING TROLLS PLEASE DELETE THIS CROSSPOST]
- Prev by Date: What is Matt? oct27
- Next by Date: Thailand 's Chaos Exhibition oct27
- Previous by thread: What is Matt? oct27
- Next by thread: Thailand 's Chaos Exhibition oct27
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
