Re: Thailand in 10, 20, 50 years ?
- From: "Tchiowa" <tchiowa2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 19 Sep 2005 22:28:34 -0700
orang37 wrote:
> I would enjoy hearing your speculations (or quotes or references or links to
> what you think are interesting projections) on the future of Thailand. Positive,
> negative, optimistic, pessimistic.
Don't expect big changes in 10 years. No one notices changes as they're
happening and 10 years is a fairly short period of time. But in the
next 20-50 years...
> 1. The economy : future cost of living, GDP, economic diversity : future of
> agriculture, tourism, manufacturing. Extent to which Thailand may, like
> Phillipines, export significant numbers of workers whose remittances home will
> be an important economic input. Unemployment and rural migration to big cities.
I see Thailand roughly like Taiwan or South Korea are now. On the edge
of being first world but not quite. Dramatic improvement in the
standard of living, particularly in the cities. Rural will also
increase, but they're coming from so low a level that they'll still be
"second world" in the farms.
> 2. Geo-political relations with China and ASEAN neighbors
In 50 years China will have either started WWIII or had an internal
civil war. Either way, China will have dropped dramatically while
recovering from war. But also as a result the relations between China
and its neighbors (like Thailand) will become more of an attempt at
partnership rather than the intimidation policy that China currently
has.
As far as ASEAN, I expect to see Indonesia also come up dramatically.
Maybe Malaysia, depending on whether they turn more secular or more
religious. Malaysia has the potential of exploding into a violent
society if they let the extreme religious elements grow. But if they
contain that and move more toward a secular Islam (like Indonesia)
they'll grow.
That leave those 3 as completely dominating ASEAN. Singapore will still
be wealthy, but so small that it has to play second fiddle. The other
ASEAN countries show no sign of going anywhere.
So regionally I see Thailand as "one of the powers" in the area. But
not alone on top.
> 3. Environment : disasters, prevalence of re-cycling. Urban life vs. rural
> life.
Recycling will be huge. I see nuclear power in Thailand's future (along
with the rest of the world). I don't see much mass transit as outside
of Bangkok it's too sprawling an area and inside Bangkok the city is so
packed now that the construction effort for mass transit would be
destructive. I see much, much smaller cars (1 or 2 person) in Bangkok
and most of them electrical.
> 4. Government and political life : future of the south and Muslim relations in
> south; corruption; centralization of power vs. de-centralization.
20-50 years from now the Muslim violence will have ended. How it ends
will be interesting. Or tragic. Who knows? Corruption will end as
Thailand grows more prosperous. They are already at the point where
corruption is inhibiting growth. Eventually a politician will come
along and start to end it. He'll be assassinated (of course) but the
movement will continue.
I see the Royal Family staying in their current role. The people love
them and I don't see that changing.
> 5. Cultural evolution : does Bangkok become a world fashion center as planned ?
> Carabao's last tour :)
No.
> 6. Religious life : Buddhism and other faiths.
No particular change. I think the country will become more secular.
Always happens when economies improve.
> 7. Youth culture and how the younger generations will accept, change, reject
> "traditional Thai values and culture."
They are already rejecting them in large part. The next generation will
embrace traditional Thai values just to piss off their parents.
.
- References:
- Thailand in 10, 20, 50 years ?
- From: orang37
- Thailand in 10, 20, 50 years ?
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