Why West thinks it is time to talk to Taliban ?
- From: Muhammad Javed Iqbal <kaleemjavediqbal@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:37:08 -0700 (PDT)
KABUL: For the past few months an incongruous figure has passed
through the airports of the Middle East and Europe: a senior Afghan
cleric who defected from the Taliban. Bearded and in traditional
dress, he has unsurprisingly needed the help of the Saudi Arabian and
British intelligence services among others to pass unhindered between
capitals.
He has always travelled in great secrecy, his movements known only to
a few individuals at the highest levels of the Afghan government, in
Riyadh and among certain western allies. His mission: to talk to the
Taliban leadership about a possible peace deal.
The backing given by the West to these talks is a measure of how badly
things have gone wrong in Afghanistan, and how far western governments
are prepared to go to stabilise a deteriorating situation which is
costing more in men, money and political capital than they ever
imagined. The equally worrying situation in Pakistan, where the
Taliban are largely based and where a separate but related insurgency
has broken out, has given the initiative a new urgency.
That the Saudi Arabians accepted the invitation of the Afghan
government to sponsor the initiative this summer is a measure of how
concerned those who govern the traditionally leading nation of the
Sunni world are about Afghanistan and Al Qaeda and the consequences
they might have for the rest of the Islamic world and beyond. It is
also a measure of the esteem in which the Saudis are still held.
This is not the first time the Saudi Arabians have brokered talks with
the Taliban, and western powers have been keen to get Riyadh more
involved in Afghanistan for some time. The Saudis, along with Pakistan
and the United Arab Emirates, were the only states to recognise the
hardline Islamic militia as rulers of Afghanistan in the Nineties. In
1998, they also nearly concluded a deal with Mullah Mohammed Omar, the
reclusive leader of the Taliban, to hand over Osama bin Laden.
For the West, the sponsorship of Riyadh is essential. Western efforts
to negotiate with the Taliban have rarely brought any durable positive
results. The reconciliation process launched by the Afghan government
has brought in about 5,000 low-level fighters and a handful of mid-
level commanders, but has never had the political backing or resources
that was needed for it to become a genuine means of sapping the
strength of the Taliban.
But these most recent talks also show that, at the very least, some of
the Taliban senior command are getting tired. “They’ve been fighting
for nearly seven years, living undercover, moving regularly, unable to
go back to Afghanistan without risking a violent death. Despite the
bellicose rhetoric and the successes of recent months, they have lost
a lot of people and there is a certain degree of fatigue,” said one
experienced Pakistan-based observer.
The Saudi initiative has resulted in the submission of a list of
demands by the Taliban to Kabul. One problem was that those demands
keep changing, said one Afghan source. A second is the question of
whether any potential agreement could be made to stick.“We could agree
something with the high command that won’t be put into action at a
grass-roots level,” said an adviser to Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
The Taliban demands are also unlikely to be acceptable to the western
powers, especially the US, which have bankrolled the effort to
stabilise and reconstruct Afghanistan. Hekmat Karzai, director of a
think-tank in Kabul, said that although discussions with the Taliban
“might not be too difficult... getting the international community on
board would be extremely hard”.
Another problem would be convincing other ethnic groups in Afghanistan
who suffered heavily under the Taliban regime to accept any deal.
However, there is increasing acceptance among western officials and
strategists that some kind of political accommodation to at least
divide the Taliban may be inevitable. There are also question marks
over to what extent Taliban factions may be manipulated by elements
within the Pakistani security establishment. However, Islamabad is
unlikely to oppose moves to integrate senior Taliban figures into the
political process in Kabul.
Previous attempts to negotiate with the Taliban have been problematic.
A controversial truce in Helmand province, where British troops are
deployed, was widely criticised for handing the key town of Musa Qala
back to the militants and necessitating a major operation to recapture
it.
In May, the former Afghan President Burnahuddin Rabbani said he had
contacted the Taliban and received “encouraging responses”. The
Taliban published a statement on their website saying they would
“fight until the withdrawal of the last crusading invader”, but added
that “the door for talks, understanding and negotiations will always
be open” to “mujahideen” such as Rabbani, who fought the Russians in
the Eighties.
One problem with the Saudi-sponsored talks so far is that the go-
between has been unable to speak directly to Mullah Omar. However, an
Afghan source described the initiative as “a step in the right
direction”, whatever the result. “Anything that might be an ice-
breaker and might take us forward is welcome,” he said. —Dawn/ The
Guardian News Service
By Jason Burke
M.
Javed Iqbal
.
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