Malaysia's Elections maybe Not So Sure

Malaysia's Elections maybe Not So Sure
Asia Sentinel - Hong Kong,SAR,China
.... or Justice Party, the Islamic Parti Islam se-Malaysia, and the
Democratic Action Party, which is dominated by Malaysian Chinese have
perhaps the best ...
<http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1073&Itemid=31>


Malaysia?s Elections maybe Not So Sure
Tag it:Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob
28 February 2008
The country?s voters, disgruntled over a wide range of issues, go to the polls
on March 8



Malaysia?s bedraggled political opposition, riding an apparent wave of citizen
discontent, may be gaining some unaccustomed momentum ahead of voting at
Malaysia?s general election, scheduled for March 8.

The opposition, beset by a lack of access not only to the levers of power but
access as well to almost any of the elements that would contribute to a level
playing field, including to the press or properly apportioned districts, has a
nearly unbroken record of losses except for a handful of seats in the Dewan
Rakyat, or national parliament, and in local legislatures.

Nonetheless, political analysts say the prospects for the loose-knit opposition
coalition, made up of the multi-race Parti Keadilan Rakyat, or Justice Party,
the Islamic Parti Islam se-Malaysia, and the Democratic Action Party, which is
dominated by Malaysian Chinese, have perhaps the best chance in decades of
denying the government its two-thirds monopoly on power.

Almost nobody gives the opposition coalition much more chance than just breaking
the national coalition?s two-thirds majority. But a convergence of issues has
improved the opposition?s chances. Although the economy is rolling along at a
healthy 7.3 percent clip, led by domestic demand and bolstered by rising
commodity prices and investment spending, inflation is a nagging issue, as is
street crime, particularly in Kuala Lumpur, a city that has always seemed
preternaturally safe. The National Crime Index has spiked up by 45 percent over
a single year.

In addition, there is rising apprehension among both the Indian and Chinese
populations over increasingly strident assertions of racial superiority by
ethnic Malays. Whatever the debate, the fact remains that the worst race riots
in Malaysian history ? in May 1969, 39 years ago, have haunted and shaped
Malaysian politics ever since. The race card has been used by all factions in
Malaysia?s political scene, be it by the ruling coalition or by the opposition,
largely causing the effect of maintaining the status quo.

A long string of corruption charges, many of them backed with considerable
proof, have been laid at the door of top UMNO officials. Those charges of
corruption have been exacerbated by the fact that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad
Badawi followed former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad into office with both a
mandate to clean out the stables and a promise to do it, then backed away.

Thus heartened, the main opposition parties have agreed to cooperate with each
other, fielding single candidacies in most constituencies to avoid splitting
their votes and giving the Barisan a clear path to return to power. The Barisan
in 2004 won 91 percent of the seats in the parliament and expects to lose at
least some. Badawi himself has sought to dampen expectations, telling supporters
and reporters to expect losses. Some analysts have suggested the opposition
could take as many as 50 seats in the 219-member body. But as many as 30 would
be optimistic.

Part of the opposition?s problem is that the electoral districts are blatantly
gerrymandered. In the 2004 elections, although the Barisan won only about 64
percent of the popular vote, it ended up with 198 of the 219 seats. The MCA won
15.5 percent of the popular vote and 31 seats while the opposition DAP won about
10 percent of the vote but only 12 seats.

There are some wild cards. In a country where internet use is increasingly
popular, independent websites like Malaysia Today and Malaysiakini are
publicizing institutional corruption and other issues, particularly in the
judiciary, which is facing its biggest scandal since the country came into
existence.

?This election has the power of the Internet that is greatly influencing voters'
opinion. Blogs and popular websites are quick and effective disseminators of
information, where readers form opinions based on the information received,?
Tricia Yeoh, a senior analyst for Malaysia?s Center for Public Policy Studies,
told Asia Sentinel. ?Secondly, the BN has had numerous issues to contend within
the recent year, casting a shadow of gloom over its leadership, as opposed to
the ?positive feel? it achieved in the 2004 elections.

?Such issues are - dissatisfaction over the demolition of temples and overall
marginalisation of the Indians, judicial corruption brought to light, the
inability to handle controversial cases on religion, the economy and rising
prices, amongst others. Third, the groundswell of civil society in numerous
forms: monitoring, advocacy, candidacy, voter education, again making use of the
Web - is a significant factor compared to the previous elections,? Yeoh said.

But, Yeoh added, she expects the opposition to win no more than 15 new seats,
giving it a total of 34 or so. It now holds 19.

With the opposition throughout its history having failed in any real terms to
present any form of shadow government or balance of power to the ruling
coalition, as usual the electoral battle is within the Barisan itself. Although
Abdullah Badawi sought to consolidate his UMNO power base by attempting to put
his own acolytes in place, dropping some old bulls from the battle, other
attempts to drop state warlords have backfired.

In the northern state of Perlis, supporters of the incumbent chief minister
resigned en masse, locking up operations rooms and refusing to campaign for the
party. Meanwhile, observers say that the MCA president Ong Ka Ting dropped his
key rivals, including former health minister Chua Jui Meng, who challenged Ong
for the presidency in 2005.

The Barisan itself is riven with a variety of different struggles. Although UMNO
previously dominated the cabinet and policy decisions, the MCA, MIC and Gerakan,
another Chinese-dominated party, have been unable to have much impact in the
wake of adverse court decisions concerning the rights of non-Malays.

Another wild card this time around is Mahathir Mohamad, 82, who for the first
time is conspicuously not campaigning for the ruling coalition. Many younger
generations have never known another prime minister and the older generation
still have a good deal of respect for him. Ever since his venomous attacks
started in 2006, in which he lashed out that Abdullah Badawi was not his first
choice as successor and that the ill-starred Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun
Razak, himself under fire for corruption, was better qualified, the prime
minister has lost headway.

Mahathir has charged that his successor was mismanaging the economy and railed
against the influence of Abdullah?s family members, in particular his
son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin. The former premier?s attacks appear to be cutting
into the prime minister?s support.

Grumblings also stem from the perception especially among the Chinese business
community that the Malaysian economy is stagnant despite the strong official
figures.

On the ground, although campaigning is in full swing, it appears that some urban
voters may have already made up their minds to teach the Barisan a lesson. The
general feeling extends across middle-class professionals be they Malay, Chinese
or Indian, that Abdullah Badawi has failed in keeping his 2004 electoral
manifesto and ideals.

More so, Mahathir again dealt a heavy blow when he said it was impossible for
UMNO and the Barisan Nasional to reform itself and that it was up to the
electorate to do the job.

Abdullah Badawi may be counting on traditional party loyalists and support from
rural folk who are enjoying better wages thanks to the boom in commodities,
especially palm oil. Malaysia is a major exporter with production standing at
15.8 million tonnes for 2007.

Signs in the kampungs, or rural villages, appear mixed although Barisan
politicians say they are confident of success. While many villagers contend that
there aren?t many localized grievances, many are concerned over the apparent
lack of control that Abdullah Badawi has over the levers of power. Taking their
cue from Mahathir, villagers seem unconcerned with national issues such as
demonstration by ethnic Indian Malaysians, large pockets of whom seem to have
rallied behind the Hindu Rights Action Force. HINDRAF alleges economic
discrimination against Malaysian Indians by majority Muslim-Malays. This
scenario may be supported by the fact that more than ever before, voters are
scrutinizing the resumes of candidates and their suitability.

The time where a candidate could win just by the strength of the party symbol
still holds in many safe constituencies. But many others formerly thought to be
safe are now demanding to see candidates? credentials. Furthermore, unlike in
the 1999 elections, when Chinese and Indian voters stepped in to shore up the
Barisan, non-Malay support does not seem forthcoming.

S. Samy Vellu, the president of the MIC, has come under intense fire with calls
for his resignation for his alleged failure to advance the Indian community. The
Chinese community may also take the opportunity to vent their anger with MCA
over what is the party?s failure to stand up to what were deemed as racist acts
when UMNO youth leaders in the widely-televised 2005 UMNO General Assembly,
particularly Hishammuddin Hussein Onn, son of Malaysia?s third prime minister
and UMNO youth chief, waved a Malay dagger or Keris during his speech and
threatened to bathe it in Chinese blood. Malaysian Chinese took offence to that
act. The MCA is also weakened as it wallows in internal strife with various
factions fighting for influence and positions.

The combination of these factors and more have heartened the opposition.
Although the Barisan Nasional will in the end continue its reign, if ever there
was a threat to its power, by Malaysian standards anyway now is that time.

Comments (2)

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Gerrymandered like creatures out of Dr Seuss : nowinnofee :
http://www.google.com
All we want is fair votes:
Reapportionment of votes in Malaysia, is a well known defence for the ruling
party. This is clearly used to protect the party members and undermine the
opponents. This clearly minimises the role of voters in the election. although
it is the hope that ruling party will be denied the 2/3 majority, but many
realise that it may not be possible as the government have many tricks up their
sleeves. The latest one is the indelible ink. Hundreds and thousands of postal
votes have been sent to military personnels and reality is that they would be
under strict instruction to vote for the ruling party.
The solution is to develop and fair and equitable policy in relation to gerry
mandering. Then the challenge is to come up with an independant commission and
really we all know how "independant" can a commission be in Malaysia? Unless of
course that commission is agreeable to all the parties in the election.
Anyway enough said. Cast your votes intelligently.

February 29, 2008
Electoral Fraud Still An Unresolved Issue : Antares :
http://magickriver.blogspot.com
Gerrymandering, phantom voters, shameless bribery, and a clearly partisan
Election Commission chairman are just a few of the more obvious obstacles faced
by the opposition parties in the coming election. I can only hope that thinking
Malaysians who are utterly weary of the BN's arrogance, corruption, and sheer
stupidity will come out to vote in full force this time around. Enough votes
against the BN might jam the machinery of electoral fraud and save Malaysia from
another four or five years of grotesque misrule. I for one would be overjoyed to
witness the political demise of fatuous dweebs and sleazebags like Najib Tun
Razak, Hishamuddin Hussein Onn, Khairy Jamaluddin... in fact, at least 90% of
the Umno leadership!

February 28, 2008
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