China test boosted space risk up to 40 pct: U.S. govt
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- Date: Thu, 26 Apr 2007 07:40:04 +0800
China test boosted space risk up to 40 pct: U.S. govt
Wed Apr 25, 2007 5:06PM EDT
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[+] By Jim Wolf
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Chinese anti-satellite test in January increased the
risk that a spacecraft could collide with debris by up to 40 percent in some
orbits, the U.S. Air Force Space Command said on Wednesday.
Before China's test, the Space Command said, there had been a one in 1,000
chance of a satellite in low-earth orbit -- or below 2,000 km -- being struck by
a piece of debris 1 cm or larger over a five-year period.
"After the successful China ASAT test, the probability of a low-earth orbit
satellite being hit increased 10 to 40 percent," the command said in a written
reply to queries from Reuters.
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Thus, the risk of a crash with a marble-sized piece of debris or larger rose to
a range of 1.1-1.4 in 1,000, depending on the orbit, according to the command,
headquartered at Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado.
China used an interceptor aboard a DF-21 missile on January 11 to shatter an
obsolete weather satellite in polar orbit, fueling U.S. military concerns about
the vulnerability of its eyes and ears in space.
"That successful capability now puts the majority of our low-Earth orbit
satellites at some risk, including the ones that are extremely, extremely
important to us in our national security," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael
Moseley told a space-industry conference this month.
The biggest U.S. satellite builders are Lockheed Martin Corp., Boeing Co. and
Northrop Grumman Corp., which said April 12 that it had teamed with Israel
Aerospace Industries Ltd. to pitch small surveillance satellites to the U.S.
government in a deal spurred by China's test. Continued...
More than 1,600 bits of junk spawned by the test will remain in orbit for
decades, increasing by more than 10 percent the total tracked by the Air Force's
Space Surveillance Network since the launch of the Soviet Sputnick 50 years ago.
About 700 active spacecraft are in orbits affected by the debris field from the
Chinese test, according to the Space Command; about 40 countries have assets on
orbit.
David Wright, a physicist and an expert on space debris at the Cambridge,
Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said his calculations roughly
agreed with the Space Command's.
"We are fortunate that even after the Chinese test, the probability that an
individual satellite in orbit will be hit by debris that will destroy it is
still relatively small," he said in an e-mail interview.
Reuters Pictures
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from the last 24 hours.
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But the breakup of a single U.S. spy satellite -- with a mass more than 10 times
that of the one in the Chinese test and a likely target of an anti-satellite
weapon -- could double the amount of marble-sized and larger junk in low-earth
orbit.
"Multiple breakups of this kind could significantly threaten our ability to use
parts of space for long into the future," he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2531269520070425?pageNumber=2
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