21st century technology and primitive political attitudes
- From: cnw <cnw@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2006 14:07:52 +0800
Gabriel Kolko: 21st century technology and primitive political attitudes
Source: Counterpunch (8-10-06)
[Gabriel Kolko is the leading historian of modern warfare. He is the author of
the classic Century of War: Politics, Conflicts and Society Since 1914 and
Another Century of War?. He has also written the best history of the Vietnam
War, Anatomy of a War: Vietnam, the US and the Modern Historical Experience. His
latest book, The Age of War, was published in March 2006. He can be reached at:
kolko@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ]
The United States had a monopoly of nuclear weaponry for only a few years before
other nations challenged it, but from 1949 until roughly the 1990s deterrence
theory worked?nations knew that if they used the awesome bomb they were likely
to be devastated in the riposte. Nuclear war was not worth its risks. Today, by
contrast, weapons of mass destruction or precision and power are within the
capacity of dozens of nations either to produce or purchase. Every kind of
weapon is now available; deterrence theory is less and less relevant, and the
equations of military power relevant to the period after World War Two no longer
hold. This process began in Korea after 1950 and the Americans discovered that
great space combined with guerrilla warfare was more than a match for them in
Vietnam. But there has now been a qualitative leap in technology that makes
inherited conventional wisdom utterly obsolete.
Technology is now moving far faster than the diplomatic and political resources
or will to control its inevitable consequences?not to mention traditional
strategic theories. Hizbollah has far better and more lethal rockets than it had
a few years ago, and the U. S. Army has just released a report that light water
reactors--which 25 nations, from Armenia to Slovenia as well as Spain, already
have and are not covered at all by existing arms control treaties?can be used to
obtain weapons-grade plutonium easily and cheaply.
Within a few years, many more countries than the present ten or so will have
nuclear bombs and far more destructive and accurate rockets and missiles, not to
mention the means to deliver them accurately. Weapons-poor fighters will have
far more sophisticated tactics as well as far more lethal equipment, which makes
the heavily equipped and armed nations lose the advantages (as in Vietnam and
Iraq) of their overwhelming firepower. The battle between a few thousand
Hizbullah fighters and a massive, ultra-modern Israeli army proves this. Among
many things, the war in Lebanon is a window of the future, and either the
Israelis cease their policy of bluster and intimidation, and finally accept the
political prerequisites of peace with the Arab world, or they too will
eventually be wrecked by cheaper nuclear weapons.
We live with 21st century technology and also with primitive political
attitudes, nationalisms of assorted sorts, cults of heroism and irrationality,
and the world will destroy itself unless it realistically confronts the new
technological equations. Israel must now confront this reality, and if it does
not develop the political skills?and serious compromises?this new equation
warrants then it will be destroyed even as it devastates its enemies.
This is the message of the conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon?to use
only the examples in today?s papers. Walls are no longer protection for the
Israelis?one shoots over them. Their much-vaunted tanks have proven highly
vulnerable to new weapons, and these will become more and more common. The U. S.
war in Iraq is a military disaster against the guerrillas?a half trillion
dollars spent there and in Afghanistan have left America on the verge of defeats
in both places, its ?shock and awe? strategy has utterly failed save to produce
contracts for weapons makers and de facto economic bankruptcy.
Adroitly, the Bush Administration has managed to deeply alienate more of
America?s nominal allies than any government in modern times. Its sublime
confidence and reliance on the power of its awesome weaponry is a crucial cause
of its failure, although we cannot minimize its preemptory hubris and extreme
nationalist myopia.
But if the challenges of producing a realistic concept of the world that
confronts the mounting dangers and limits of military technology seriously are
not resolved soon there is nothing more than wars to look forward to.
Posted on Thursday, August 10, 2006 at 7:37 PM | Comments (0) | Return
.
- Prev by Date: At War with Islamic Fascists
- Next by Date: Mark LeVine: 101 Uses of Chaos
- Previous by thread: At War with Islamic Fascists
- Next by thread: Mark LeVine: 101 Uses of Chaos
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
