UK energy supplies will run out within 10 years

UK energy supplies will run out within 10 years


Comment: The UK will run out of energy in less than 10 years. We are still
expected to believe that the reason why the US and UK invaded Iraq and
Afghanistan was to disarm Iraq's WMD, as claimed by Blair and other
officials (although these WMD never existed and there was no evidence of
their existance) rather than Iraq's oil and gas.
***

Britain facing large energy gap

Britain is facing a shortfall in energy supply in the near future, according
to a major report.

Within a decade, the country may be generating only about 80% of the
electricity it needs.

A panel of 150 experts says fossil fuels will remain the mainstay of supply,
with renewables expanding and nuclear power almost certainly needed.

The panel urges the government to take steps quickly to solve the issue;
doing nothing, it says, is not an option.

"Up to the year 2050, fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source -
there really is no alternative," said John Loughhead of the UK Energy
Research Centre, who compiled the report following a two-day conference held
last month under the auspices of the Geological Society of London.

The conference drew contributions from about 150 delegates representing all
sectors of the energy field.

"If the UK is to remain on the path of reducing atmospheric emissions of
greenhouse gases, it will need to retain some nuclear capacity," Dr
Loughhead told reporters at a news briefing on Wednesday.

"Renewables are going to play a role, but they're going to need support if
they're to continue on a downward path of cost."

Nuclear closure

The immediate issue is the impending closure of most British nuclear power
stations and many coal-fired units.

By 2015, all four Magnox nuclear stations still operating will have shut
down, as will five of the seven stations running Advanced Gas-Cooled
Reactors (AGRs).

Under the European Large Combustion Plant Directive, many of the nation's
coal-fired plants will also close in the next decade.

In principle, the gap could be bridged by new power stations burning gas or
coal; but this would work against the government's short term targets and
long term aspirations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

"Without the need to reduce emissions, there would not be an energy gap by
2050," said Dr Loughhead.

Meanwhile, demand may continue to rise; and managing that demand, says the
report, is a key issue.

Technologies exist to increase efficiencies, but they are not being used to
anything like their full potential, it finds - largely because the public is
not properly engaged in the energy issue.

This is one area in which it recommends urgent attention from the
government.

Another is setting up the right frameworks to encourage investment and
research, setting up a long-term stable marketplace which will allow
companies to plan for the future.

Creating the climate

"If there is a next generation of nuclear stations, they are almost certain
to be built with private money," said John Loughhead.

"Companies are looking at an investment spanning 80 years, from construction
to decommissioning; and there is concern within the investor community about
having a regulatory framework which takes account of this and which will not
be changed after commissioning."

The report concludes that the gap in electricity supplies left by nuclear
closures will almost certainly have to be bridged by building new reactors,
if the government is to fulfil its long term ambitions on climate change.

"The conclusion of our discussions was that renewables can't plug the gap
soon," said Charles Curtis of Manchester University and the nuclear company
Nirex.

"They will play a part, but it's unlikely they will provide everything we
need; they need more support, more aid in deployment."

There was clearly some dissention from that conclusion among experts
consulted for the report.

The report will be formally launched at London's Royal Society on Thursday
morning, and its authors hope it will stimulate government action.

Key considerations for the government are, it believes

setting up stable fiscal and regulatory frameworks finding ways to engage
the public in energy questions stimulating the development of new
technologies such as carbon capture exploring options for new nuclear
stations The government is unlikely to make a formal announcement on new
nuclear build before the middle of next year, when a committee advising on
options for disposing of Britain's existing nuclear waste is due to present
its recommendations.

The researchers were emphatic that whatever decisions are taken, the
government needs to take them swiftly.

"Doing nothing is not an option," commented Shaun Fitzgerald from the BP
Research Institute at Cambridge University.

"If you don't want nuclear, there are hard choices to be made on other
issues."

However, there was clearly some dissent from these conclusions among experts
consulted for the report.

"In the case of nuclear, the government should take a decision soon, and the
decision should be 'no'," the chief executive of the solar energy company
solarcentury Jeremy Leggett told the BBC News website.

"More than 50% of Britain's greenhouse gas emissions come directly or
indirectly from buildings; and the key to reducing that lies in renewables
and energy efficiency."


BBC News, "Britain facing large energy gap", 10 November 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4423456.stm



.